HURRICANE DANIELLE-THREAD CLOSED-GRAPHICS REMOVED

[StingRay]

Closed this one guys, if it turns out NOT to be a fish, I'll reopen it.

[Coriolis]

11 AM AST FRI AUG 13 2004

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DEVELOPS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 275 MILES... 445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.2 N... 22.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.

[StingRay]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 132032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI AUG 13 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.0 WEST OR ABOUT
240 MILES... 390 KM... SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...12.5 N... 24.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[StingRay]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 132100
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE
CYCLONE COULD POSSIBLY BE A TROPICAL STORM ALREADY ...BUT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM TAFB AND
T2.0...OR 30 KT...FROM SAB. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH MORE
BANDING OR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/13. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO RIGHT BASED ON THE CENTER BECOMING BETTER DEFINED A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. BY 48 HOURS...ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL
AGREE ON A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTH
AND SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN 35-40W LONGITUDE...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE WILL OCCUR. SEVERAL OF THE NHC MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWARD
MOTION AFTER 96 HOURS...BUT A SMALL POLEWARD STAIR-STEP IN THE
TRACK...WITH A RETURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...COULD OCCUR
INSTEAD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A COMPROMISE OF THOSE TWO SCENARIOS
UNTIL MORE CONSISTENT MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE.

ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST GIVEN THE HIGH LATITUDE OF THE
CYCLONE AND THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER...26-27C SSTS...THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER...EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. HOWEVER
...IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND STAYS OVER
WARMER WATER...THEN IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

:s_lastwee

[StingRay]

Fish already predicted?


:fish:

[StingRay]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 140858
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT AUG 14 2004

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 25.9 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES... 215 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN MOST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.2 N... 25.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN


$$
Z

[StingRay]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 140859
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0 AND 2.5.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KTS.

DANIELLE IS SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH GLOBAL MODELS
WEAKEN SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST FROM ITS PRESENT
WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS JUST TO THE
LEFT OF THE CONCENSUS.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REASONABLY WARM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK TAKES DANIELLE OVER SUB 27C WATER AFTER THAT HOWEVER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE
THEREAFTER...IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 13.2N 25.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 13.6N 27.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 14.2N 30.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 14.9N 32.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.1N 34.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 18.7N 38.4W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 21.5N 42.2W 65 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 24.5N 44.6W 65 KT


$$

[StingRay]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 141444
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT AUG 14 2004

...DANIELLE A LITTLE STRONGER...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 27.3 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES... 355 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 27.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

[StingRay]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 141445
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

DANIELLE IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND DVORAK T NUMBERS
ARE NOW A CONSENSUS 3.0 FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT ACCORDINGLY. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY REASONABLY
WARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER A TONGUE OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER IN THE VICINITY OF 18N MAY LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 280/12. GLOBAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH
WOULD ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIELLE. THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTHWARD COMPONENT
OF MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODEL SUITE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.3N 27.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.8N 29.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 31.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 15.6N 33.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 16.9N 35.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 39.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 22.0N 42.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 25.5N 45.0W 65 KT

$$

[windy]

just when posters said the tropics are boring. Lol I wonder where Danielle will track? another east coast storm maybe? I guess we will have to see. Hope all is doing well.

[Coriolis]

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN.
CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER AND DVORAK T
NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE NOW 3.5. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR MAY INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/13. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO PREDICT A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN A
DAY OR SO. THIS WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW DANIELLE TO TURN
NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT
BUT REMAINS LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST MAY
HAVE TO BE ADJUST A LITTLE FURTHER EAST IF THE MODEL TREND TO THE
RIGHT CONTINUES.

FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 13.7N 28.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.4N 30.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.5N 32.8W 70 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 34.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 36.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 20.8N 39.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 42.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 43.5W 80 KT

[StingRay]

Because I've been running around like a chicken with my head cut off, I can't remembers some things. Is this the one that is suppose to be a fish?

[Coriolis]

Hopefully yes. That is the one I want to curve out to sea.

[Coriolis]

HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 4.0...4.0...AND 3.5 FROM SAB...AFWA...AND
TAFB RESPECTIVELY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 0000 UTC INDICATES THAT
DANIELLE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A 2247 UTC
SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS DETECTED A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE.
DANIELLE IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO 65 KT...THE THIRD HURRICANE OF
THE SEASON. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
48 HOURS. THEREAFTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS INDICATED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CLOSELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/13. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO PREDICT A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW DANIELLE TO
TURN NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF THE
OFFICIAL TRACK WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS TO THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.2N 30.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.9N 31.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.2N 33.6W 80 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 17.7N 35.4W 80 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 19.1N 37.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 22.0N 40.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 25.0N 42.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 28.0N 43.0W 65 KT

[StingRay]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150827
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN AUG 15 2004

...DANIELLE GETTING STRONGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 485 MILES... 780 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY
MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...14.2 N... 31.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[StingRay]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 150903
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5...4.0...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB...
SAB...AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. AODT VALUES ARE T4.5...OR 77 KT. BASED
ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE NICE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE
NOTED IN A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
DANIELLE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW
DANIELLE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN. MOST OF
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING RECURVATURE...BUT THOSE MODELS ARE
ALREADY WELL TO THE RIGHT OF DANIELLE'S RECENT MOTION AND CURRENT
POSITION. THE NEW GFS RUN TAKES DANIELLE GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD
AND THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 80F AND WARMER WATER AND IN A
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY..AND DANIELLE COULD
EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS IF IT CONTINUES ITS
CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION A LITTLE LONGER THAN FORECAST.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.2N 31.6W 75 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.7N 33.7W 80 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 15.9N 35.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 17.4N 37.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 19.6N 39.6W 90 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 23.0N 42.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 26.5N 44.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 29.0N 45.0W 65 KT

[windy]

then it could change the forecast track. Bringing it towards the E.C. I seen quite a few storms miss troughs. I'm not going to rule danielle a fish until I see the curve taking effect. :security:

[StingRay]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 160851
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

...DANIELLE MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRENGTH...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 36.3 WEST OR ABOUT 820
MILES...1315 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.2 N... 36.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER SISKO/STEWART

[StingRay]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 160854
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

METEOSAT-8 INFRARED AND SHORTWAVE-INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW THAT
DANIELLE HAS ELONGATED A BIT IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH DIRECTION.
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE HAS CONTRACTED TO LESS THAN 10
NM AS THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN AT
T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KTS
FOR THE INITIAL TIME PERIOD.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG AT 310/15...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS MOTION. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO MOVE
THE SYSTEM NORTH AND RECURVE DANIELLE TOWARD THE AZORES BEYOND 72
HOURS. THE GFS STILL REMAINS TO THE LEFT OF THE GUIDANCE GROUP...
HOWEVER THE NOGAPS TRACK HAS MOVED IN WITH THE REST OF THE PACK.
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES DANIELLE WILL TURN NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY TRACK NORTHEAST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THIS CONSENSUS...SO THE
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 24 HOUR...SO THE FORECAST
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KTS OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING FORECAST LATER AS DANIELLE EDGES CLOSER TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLE...SO THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REASONING.

FORECASTER STEWART/SISKO

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.2N 36.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 18.7N 37.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 20.7N 39.2W 85 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 22.8N 40.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 24.9N 40.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 29.2N 40.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 32.8N 38.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 35.1N 33.7W 45 KT

[windy]

I know its a possiblility that Danielle could curve out to sea. But only if the trough lifts it out. I know quite a few storms that missed troughs only because they stalled or slowed down. I'm still going to watch this storm closely in case it chan :weight: ges track.

[Coriolis]

Windy - We all should monitor each storm. But I do not think there is much of a chance of it stalling out.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IDDS-cgi/listImages?a=0,m=8,f=1,c=5,o=0,s=0,n=6,d=1,v=400,p =0

Hope the link works. If not - hit the Play>

[StingRay]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 162026
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON AUG 16 2004

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST OR ABOUT 995 MILES...1600 KM...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...19.7 N... 38.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

[StingRay]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 162027
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A MORE
ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A SMALL 10 NM
IRREGULAR EYE. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA T-NUMBERS ARE 5.5...5.0...AND 5.0
RESPECTIVELY. THE ENHANCED BD CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATED A
BRIEF PERIOD...ESSENTIALLY ON A SINGLE IMAGE FROM 18Z...WHERE A
T-NUMBER OF 5.5 COULD HAVE BEEN DETERMINED. HOWEVER...BASED ON
CURRENT IMAGERY...90 KT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

INITIAL MOTION IS 330/16...WITH A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION TO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL
GUIDANCE
INDICATES A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH BEYOND 36 HOURS WITH A RECURVE
TOWARD THE AZORES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE
CONSENSUS...SUGGESTING AN ABRUPT WEAKENING TREND AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVES BENEATH THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THROUGH 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND... REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE 15Z FORECAST.

A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
DANIELLE MOVES BENEATH THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A
WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.7N 38.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 21.6N 39.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 23.7N 40.6W 80 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 26.3N 41.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 28.5N 41.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 34.5N 37.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 37.5N 32.0W 40 KT

[StingRay]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 170843
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE AUG 17 2004

...DANIELLE MAINTAINS CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1330
MILES...2135 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH
...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...22.3 N... 39.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[StingRay]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 170838
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

THE APPEARANCE OF THE EYE OF DANIELLE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT. HOWEVER
...WHEN THE EYE HAS BEEN PRESENT...ODT INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH
AS T5.1...OR 92 KT. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE THREE
SATELLITE AGENCIES HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL INDICATE AT
LEAST 85 KT. GIVEN THE HIGHER ODT VALUES AND THE COLD TOPS STILL
PRESENT IN THE EYWALL...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 90 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/14. THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS HAVE
BEEN COMING IN ON TRACK. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS INFLUENCED
BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 450 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.
AFTER THAT...DANEILLE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY
ROUND THE TOP OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 25N
LATITUDE. AFTER RECURVATURE BEGINS IN 48-60H...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED
TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE TO NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS BY
DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CURRENTLY SHOWS 34 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR ACROSS DANIELLE. USUALLY SUCH STRONG SHEAR CONDITIONS WOULD
HAVE DISRUPTED THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING TO OCCUR...BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE. GIVEN THAT THE
SHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE SHEAR WITH TIME AND THAT AT LEAST
27C SSTS ARE AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE THROUGH 60H...THE INTENSITY OF
DANIELLE IS ONLY DECREASED SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AND IS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS. BY 120H...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT DANIELLE COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA IN THE ISLANDS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 22.3N 39.9W 90 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 24.1N 40.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 26.4N 41.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 28.6N 41.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 30.5N 40.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 34.0N 38.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 36.5N 34.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 39.5N 28.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL