TROPICAL WAVE EARL-THREAD CLOSED-GRAPHICS REMOVED

[StingRay]

And here we go again?
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[StingRay]

um, think I'll do a bump

[Coriolis]

929
WTNT35 KNHC 132033
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI AUG 13 2004

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1045 MILES...1680 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION... 8.9 N... 46.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

[longtalltexan79]

TD #5 looks really impressive...maybe Danielle by tomorrow?

[StingRay]

I'll go with 2:1 on Danielle tomorrow.

[StingRay]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 140857
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT AUG 14 2004

WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER
TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST OR ABOUT
700 MILES...1130 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION... 9.8 N... 49.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

[StingRay]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 141446
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT AUG 14 2004

...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
ISSUED...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST.
LUCIA. INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 530 MILES... 855 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH
...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...10.4 N... 52.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

[StingRay]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 141450
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED ALONG A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. HOWEVER DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY AND CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE LINES OF
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES A STEADY INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED...INITIAL MOTION
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER...285/20. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MOTION IS THEREFORE INDICATED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...BUT IS LARGELY AN UPDATE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 10.4N 52.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 11.5N 55.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 12.9N 58.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 14.2N 62.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 15.5N 66.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 17.5N 73.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 19.0N 79.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 20.5N 84.0W 80 KT

[ticka1]

TD #5 will be Earl in my amatuer opinion. I think it will be a GOM storm where it will go depends alot on if there are any fronts dipping down at that time.

[windy]

may be Earl tonight and that rack will depend on like ticka said if theirs any troughs, cold fronts or wind shear to stop this storms from reaching its fututre track. With all storms they need to be monitored IMHO. :crazy-eye

[windy]

I have problems getting my words together.

[StingRay]

:stupido:


SURE you did!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[StingRay]

Here are your models............excuse me while I go

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/05LMDL01.html

[StingRay]

Windy, guess what-we will have to watch the rack, I mean track, of what should be Earl by 4:00 according to sources.

Great, we couldn't have just a few days of breathing room, could we?

[StingRay]

To quote Monty Python:
Run Away, Run Away:

[Coriolis]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 14 2004

..DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE
GRENADINES...THE TRINIDAD-TOBAGO METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS
INTENSIFIED INTO TROPICAL STORM EARL.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375
MILES... 605 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH
..39 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON. WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WILL BE DETERIORATING TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
..140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 54.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

[Coriolis]

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

AFTER A BRIEF INTERRUPTION IN THE DEVELOPMENT TREND THIS MORNING...
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY
WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM
BOTH SAB AND TAFB. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS
TIME. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR EXCEPT TO THE EAST WHERE IT
APPEARS RESTRICTED. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS
PREDICTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
EXCEPT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHERE IT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE
THAN THAT MODEL.

EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY ALONG A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST
COURSE. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THUS THE
FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED BY 4-5 DAYS. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST POSITIONS AT THESE EXTENDED
TIMES.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 10.8N 54.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 12.0N 57.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 13.4N 61.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 14.7N 65.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.9N 68.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 18.0N 75.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 19.5N 80.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 21.0N 84.0W 80 KT

[StingRay]

Thanks Jim, I changed the header.

[StingRay]

From NWS Corpus this afternoon:
IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE TD 5 BECOMES A TROPICAL
STORM AS IT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALTHOUGH FAST WESTWARD
MOVEMENT APPEARS TO BE HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT. RIDGING ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS WILL KEEP THIS SYSTEM MOVING WNW TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND THE NHC IS FORECASTING IT TO ORGANIZE INTO A
HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON THURSDAY. TO
FAR OUT TO SPECULATE FURTHER...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT APPEARS HEADED TO THE GULF ON A WNW
TRACK WHICH IS NEVER A GOOD SIGN. WILL NOT SHOW ANY IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST ATTM.

Don't ask me, what do I look like, a :magician: ?

[StingRay]

I'm fully aware of that. I was posting it to show Ticka the discussion from NWS Corpus BEFORE he was made a storm. Forgive me on not time stamping it.

[longtalltexan79]

Ugh, you know what...that song "Goobye Earl" by the Dixie Chicks runs through my head everytime now I hear the name "Earl" mentioned....although that could be a good theme song for the storm GOODBYE EARL :ciao:

Last month when I went to Sam's I stocked up on batteries so I've got enough to get us through Earl if he decides to come this way...I need to get the rest of our hurricane kit ready because by the end of next week it could be funky here on the Texas coast if he decides to come this way.... :afraid:

[StingRay]

I LOVE that song even though I'm not much of a DC fan. Cracked me up when I saw the video.

Smart you on stocking up NOW. I've still got some batteries laying around, but hurricane kit is pitifully lacking in everything else. After watching the carnage from Charley, it really makes me want to get things prepared.

[StingRay]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 150856
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ELONGATED
SLIGHTLY EAST-WEST...THE AMOUNT AND QUALITY OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING. THE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB IS A CONSENSUS
T3.0...OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY INCREASED TO 40 KT
BASED ON THE LACK OF CONSISTENT BANDING FEATURES. AIR FORCE RECON
WILL BE INVESTIGATING EARL LATER THIS MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/22. MOST OF
THE CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST
THAT EARL IS MOVING MORE WESTWARD AND IS...THEREFORE...SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND FORECAST TRACK. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
INITIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATION. AFTER
72 HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN TAKING EARL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN OR NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OR EVEN NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALL OF
THE MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 5...CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETREAT EASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MAY
RESULT IN EARL SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNING MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...
NOGAPS...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...ONLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE UKMET.

WITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR EXPECTED TO AFFECT EARL...SOME SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS SINCE THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AT A FAIRLY FAST FORWARD SPEED. AFTER
EARL SLOWS DOWN IN THE LATER TIME PERIODS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH
WARMER WATER IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

[StingRay]

From NWS Corpus:
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN E/W MID/UPR LVL RDG AXIS
STRETCHING FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO WL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST PD. THIS MAY TEND TO KEEP EARL
BOTTLED UP IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK INTO MEXICO.
OTHER THAN THE NOGAPS SOLN...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
SCENARIO. THE NOGAPS HAS BEEN INDICATING MORE OF A LEFT TRACK
ADJUSTMENT WITH EACH RUN. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID...WL MAINTAIN NO
IMPACT FROM EARL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FCST. OF COURSE IF IT WERE TO
JOG A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MAKE IT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
THEN IT WOULD LKLY NOT BE UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN ANY IMPACTS
COULD BE FELT HERE. WE WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
From NWS Houston:
IN THE LONG RANGE TS EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE GULF BY END OF
THE WEEK. LONG RANGE PROGS INDICATE A TROF DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL US
THAT WILL CAUSE EARL TO RECURVE TO THE EAST AFTER ENTERING THE GULF.
THIS STORM WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THIS WEEK.


So which one do we believe? And why doesn't NWS require that ALL their offices AGREE on a tropical forecast? No wonder we're confused......Man, this ticks me off.

[StingRay]

Has anyone noticed how LARGE Mr. Earl is? This thing gives me the creeps. I keep looking at the IR and seeing it get bigger and better organized and thinking "Not another Charley, Not another Charley".

[Coriolis]

StingRay - please note that the pressure is UP 3 mb.

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

EARL APPEARS WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS REPORT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT VERY
WELL-DEFINED...AND IN FACT RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PLANE
SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY NOT BE QUITE CLOSED OFF. THIS IS
PROBABLY DUE TO THE VERY FAST FORWARD MOTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE...EXCEPT TO THE EAST. WATER
VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW AHEAD
OF THE STORM...SO STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS RATHER SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MORE
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE VERY
FAVORABLE OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE...IF
ANY...SKILL IN PREDICTING SUCH EVENTS.

BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIX...INITIAL MOTION IS 280/24. THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT ENOUGH OF A RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH TO PREVENT A
SIGNIFICANT RIGHT TURN. HOWEVER...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL IS AN
OUTLIER AND DOES SHOW EARL TURNING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF BY DAY
5. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A OF THE GUIDANCE SAVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED U.K. MET. MODEL. IT SHOULD BE BORNE IN MIND THAT
THE TRACK ERROR AT 120 HOURS IS TYPICALLY A FEW HUNDRED MILES...SO
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THAT EXACT POINT.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 11.9N 62.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.9N 65.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 14.0N 69.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 15.3N 73.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 16.5N 76.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 21.0N 86.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 24.0N 89.0W 90 KT

[StingRay]

Well at least the pressure is UP but I don't know. He just BOTHERS me.....if that trough holds in place, could be bad bad bad. I noticed water vapor too is not that prohibitive for development.

[Coriolis]

Hardcore - think your right - looks like it will go over Yucutan and then head to Texas (prob as TS) - IMO -

Jim

[StingRay]

You just say that to get me skeeeeeeeeeeeered!!!! :damnmate:

[StingRay]

WTNT25 KNHC 151441
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052004
1500Z SUN AUG 15 2004

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...THE
GRENADINES...ST.VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. INTERESTS AROUND THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 62.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 62.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 60.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.9N 65.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.3N 73.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.5N 76.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 24.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 62.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH

[StingRay]

Beware the red dot.......

[StingRay]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 152034
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 15 2004

...EARL MOVING SWIFTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 230 KM...WEST OF GRENADA.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH ...37 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EARL
THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...12.3 N... 63.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

[StingRay]

000
WTNT25 KNHC 152035
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052004
2100Z SUN AUG 15 2004

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 63.8W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 63.8W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.2N 67.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.2N 71.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.2N 75.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.0N 92.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 63.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH

[StingRay]

Waiting, waiting, waiting. Looks like NHC says onto yucatan peninsula and back out into the bay of campeche. I would think that the terrain on yucatan would slice some energy off of him, but once he gets back out in the water, could be big trouble in little China.
This from NWS-Galveston/Houston Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SQUEEZE ANOTHER NICE DAY OUT OF THIS CURRENT WX
REGIME (POSSIBLY EVEN TWO IF THE WX GODS SMILE BENEVOLENTLY). LIGHT
NE/ELY WINDS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUES BEFORE THE RIDGE
MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS AND GULF
MOISTURE. WITH THESE CHANGES WE'LL ALSO HERALD THE RETURN OF A MORE
ACTIVE SEABREEZE BY WEDNESDAY WITH PCPN LIKELY ENHANCED BY AN UPPER
TROF/LOW TRAVERSING THE STATE. CHC POPS LOOK TO BE IN ORDER THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE WITH
A FLATTISH UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST
SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE NOT REALLY PICKING UP ON EARL ALL THAT
WELL BUT THE CURRENT FCST TRACK FROM THE TPC WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE
THAT EARL (MAYBE A HCN BEFORE TOO LONG) WILL BE ENTERING THE GULF O'
MEXICO BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK. A BEAR WATCH DEFINITELY IN ORDER.

[longtalltexan79]

I'm thinking that Earl thinks he's going to come visit Texas to get a little bit of our friendly hospitality....little does he know we don't want him coming for a visit anytime soon and he'll be met with hositlity. :weapon:

I start classes next Monday the 23rd in Victoria, lol

[StingRay]

Yep, my daughter starts that same day, I don't start until the following Monday. But we're moving the rest of her stuff down here on the 21st. Wouldn't mind driving by myself or with SOMEONE ELSE (TICKA) but hubby will get all nervous. Guess he thinks I'll drive a little recklessly (yeah right!!!) :caaliey:

[ticka1]

Just watched our local news weather (Channel 13) and it seems the cold front isn't coming to us in Texas - the high sitting over Florida will block and and the high over Mexico will create a channel over west and SE Texas therefore sending Charley more in the general area of TX/Mx or TX/LA. As always, the NHC track is the one to follow.

Just wanted to keep track this week of what is being said and how much if it changes during the week.

You ready Suzi and LongtallTexan...

[StingRay]

Well he looks kinda sickly this afternoon, but that doesn't calm me really. Don't know if it's his forward speed that's pulling him apart or what.....too many questions, not enough answers.

And NO, I'm NOT ready, but does that matter?

TROPICAL TWISTER TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[stormy]

lets just hope he look real good in the gom, then falls apart coming to shore. i just dont want any of the after math coming to birmingham.

[longtalltexan79]

Rats I had a nice post and something went bonkers and it lost it when I clicked to post it...anywho...

No, we are not remotly anywhere near ready for this if it does come this way. I just told my mom "we are the most unprepared family on the Texas coast right now" and I couldn't agree more.

I'm fixing to sit down and start writing out a list of stuff we're going to need incase we need to go to Sam's at the end of the week. I've got a nice supply of batteries, but we could use more. I need to find all our flashlights which are scattered all over the place, and it would be a good idea probably to videotape the house for insurance purposes sometime this week.

You wouldn't believe the windows on this house, lol. We've got a sun room at the back of the house whose walls are nothing but windows, plus we've got four sky lights on the roof...ugh just ugh! :s:

[ticka1]

Texan - Hubby and me were just discussing things - we have most of the stuff - just need batteries and bottled water and a chainsaw. After watching several interviews on tv of folks in Charley - I am going to make sure I have cash on hand too.

Well I'm gonna go and check the net for a list of hurricane supplies just to do a double check for my own satisfaction. The video tape is an excellent idea. I will make sure I do that and have my videocamera and digital camera and regular camera loaded with film for pictures.

[StingRay]

Personally I'm gonna stock up on ice cream and candy......

[Coriolis]

Ticka, StingRay - another good thing (if you have the time) is to great a database of home inventory. One that will allow you to drop some digital pic of each item. I don't know how the insurance is where you are - but after Andrew - I decided to give them all the proof of items I have in the home. I constantly update and make 2 copies - just in case! Is just a thought.

Jim

[StingRay]

Well, as anal as I am, I actually have done that already, did it back in June when I wasn't in class. Didn't take pics but have descriptions along with serial numbers of all major electronics/tools/guns, etc. in the house. Clothes and crap I could care less about and should one hobble this way I would fedex all my important documents and genealogy info (on disk) and pics up to my aunt in East Texas. I can do pics in about 3 hours tops.

See, I'm prepared! Hey, at least this year I finally got flood insurance! Still think I need to stock up on ice cream and candy. And STEAK and HICKORY CHIPS!!!! :naughty2:

[ticka1]

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

The latest model run. Looks like the trend is more north. This is going to happen all week folks.

[Coriolis]

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

IF NOT FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA THIS PROBABLY WOULD HAVE BEEN
THE LAST ADVISORY ON EARL...AT LEAST FOR NOW. THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EARL THIS EVENING WAS DENIED
ACCESS TO VENEZUELAN AIRSPACE. HAD THEY BEEN ABLE TO GET TO THE
STORM...I DOUBT THEY WOULD HAVE FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION...AS THE
QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AT 22Z LOOK MORE LIKE AN OPEN WAVE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH DOUBT TO KEEP ADVISORIES GOING UNTIL THE
NEXT AIRCRAFT ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING...AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THAT MISSION WILL BE ALLOWED TO PROCEED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/19...AS QUIKSCAT AND
MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OR WAVE AXIS MAY
BE MOVING OUT SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ENHANCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER FLORIDA AS THE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LIFTS OUT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP EARL...OR ITS
REMNANTS...ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IS POSSIBLE AS EARL REACHES THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE SO FAR HAS TENDED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH EARL...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EARL IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT WAS EARLIER IN
THE DAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN SEEMINGLY BEING
REPLACED BY A MORE UNIFORM EASTERLY FLOW...AND THE CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY MEAGER. THE RAPID FORWARD SPEED ALSO CONTINUES TO BE A
NEGATIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BE FAVORABLE...HOWEVER...AND BOTH
THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE EARL BECOMING A
HURRICANE. THIS COULD HAPPEN EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES INTO AN
OPEN WAVE TOMORROW.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 12.7N 65.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 13.4N 68.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 14.3N 72.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.9N 76.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 80.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 85.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 89.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 21/0000Z 21.0N 93.0W 70 KT...OVER WATER

[longtalltexan79]

Earl is looking pretty sickly tonight on sat....but I'm not going to take that to mean much, probably just going through a few bumps in it's developmental process.

[StingRay]

I agree, kinda sickly looking, but then again, so was Bonnie and she came back from the dead-albeit without a huge impact. Could be the usual ups and downs, so we'll wait and see. I hadn't bought my ice cream yet anyway.

[longtalltexan79]

I agree, kinda sickly looking, but then again, so was Bonnie and she came back from the dead-albeit without a huge impact. Could be the usual ups and downs, so we'll wait and see. I hadn't bought my ice cream yet anyway.

lol, you've really got a thing for ice cream don't you? You're making me want to go to the store and get some right now...

But yes, I was thinking of Bonnie while looking at Earl a few moments ago...I'm sure Earl isn't done yet...

[windy]

anything is possible. Earl if it is downgraded could re-generate like Bonnie did. I don't rule out anything. :alien2:

[longtalltexan79]

Earl is looking much better as of 4am...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

Anxious to see what the recon finds later this morning...

[ticka1]

Hubby just said the Channel 2 local met said by next weekend anywhere from Mexico to TX/LA border is where Earl is headed - we need to just watch.

[StingRay]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 160849
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

...EARL CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 410 MILES... 655 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH
...33 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.2 N... 67.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[StingRay]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 160844
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

THE INITIAL POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS BASED...TO A LARGE
DEGREE...ON EXTRAPOLATION AND ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER IS SOMEWHERE
CLOSE TO THE EASTERNMOST BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS POSITION IS
AT LEAST 30 NMI AHEAD OF THE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 30 KT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF COLD TOPPED CONVECTION
NEAR THE ALLEGED CENTER...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT UNTIL
RECON GETS OUT THERE LATER THIS MORNING TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/18. SOME EARLIER
SSMI AND AMSU DATA SUGGEST THAT EARL HAS SLOWED SOME...BUT I AM
RELUCTANT TO BRING DOWN THE FORWARD SPEED TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NOW ON A GENERAL
TRACK ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 84-96 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
GFDL HAS MADE A MAJOR SHIFT TO THE RIGHT ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE. IT
IS NOW THE RIGHTMOST OF ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS
10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODEL. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL BRINGS EARL TO
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN 120 HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS...
AFTER WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH HELPS TO ERODE THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONLY THE UKMET AND CANADIAN
MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF. THE REST OF THE
MODELS HAVE ONLY 5-10 KT OF WIND AT 500 MB IN THE WESTERN GULF IN
4-5 DAYS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR EARL TO SLOW AND MOVE MORE
POLEWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND IS CLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS UNDER 15 KT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AHEAD OF EARL. THEREFORE...AT LEAST STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS CALLED FOR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS MODEL...AND ACCOUNTS FOR LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY 96 HOURS...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE
GFDL MODEL WHICH BRINGS EARL UP TO 91 KT IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.2N 67.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 14.1N 70.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 15.0N 74.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 15.7N 78.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 16.3N 81.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 86.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 20.5N 90.5W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 21/0600Z 22.5N 94.5W 70 KT...OVER WATER

[StingRay]

Earl still looks very disorganized to me. Not sure why this happened and if it will continue. I know NHC is still going to pin some hopes on it, so I will bide my time before I start digging his grave......also noted they have shifted the forecast track....again......

[Coriolis]

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

THIS MORNING...A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS UNABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN EARL. THIS IS ALSO
THE CASE WITH A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. SO EARL HAS DEGENERATED INTO
AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 22 KT. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE IN THE 25 TO 35
KT RANGE.

THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
WAVE TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE SYSTEM HEADS FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL BE
THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ANOTHER
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR TOMORROW MORNING.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 71.0W WITH 35 KT WINDS

[StingRay]

I thought this might happen. He's just too disorganized. Sit back and wait folks. If you need excitement, check what is cooking on the African continent, ready to boil once it hits the water.

[Coriolis]

Don't let your guard down on Earl. Once the shear to the west relaxes, if he does not die before so - will probably regenerate.

We will have to see what happens as far as the storms that may form off of Africa. Lets just hope this peak season won't be bad. One major storm is enough please.

[windy]

Once the shear to the west relaxes, if he does not die before so - will probably regenerate.



This is true! Earl could Re-Generate just like Bonnie did. I hope noone lets their guard down. Storms are prone to come back to life again once the area becomes more favorable. :sing:

[ticka1]

He's gaining more convection on IR Satellite pictures. But since there is no low level circulation - this has to occur before its a player again. Not writing him off either. But its going to be a struggle in the Caribbean Graveyard.

[windy]

Earl won't be coming back according to the 11am outlook. Its heading towards land and could break apart I'm sure. Oh well theirs still more potential out there in the tropics. :crazy-eye

[StingRay]

Otherwise known as drive through please...................