Bozo
01-12-2005, 09:44 AM
Powerful upper level storm system plowing toward TX. Impressive
pressure falls this morning over NW TX where surface pressure have
tumbled to 29.37in. Pressure gradient has greatly increased with Waco
gusting to 40 and DFW gusting over 40 in the last hour. Strong winds
over W TX sustained above 30mph with gust over 50mph will continue
through the afternoon. Locally, gust to 40mph will be possible along
and west of a College Station to Katy to Freeport line.
AM soundings show a large cap in the 800mb-700mb layer nearing 15-20C.
This capping will keep a lid on convection within the warm sector for
most of the day. Strong upper level forcing along with short wave
cooling will arrive by late afternoon and begin to erode the capping.
Low level forcing along the front should be able to produce enough
lift to break the cap by early evening and fire off a line of
thunderstorms. AM profilers and soundings show low level jet of 45-
55kts just off the surface and then a mid level jet of 120kts+ from
the SW. Linear forcing along the frontal boundary will produce a
squall line feature this evening. Wind energy will come to the surface
in downdrafts and microburst and in any line bow segments. Damaging
winds of 60-80mph will be the main threat. Instability will be limited
to near 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and this should keep a low tornado
potential in an otherwise very favorable sheared profile for
tornadoes.
Degree of capping to the SW of Houston may prevent much more than a
line of thunderstorms or showers. The greatest severe threat is north
of I-10 although SPC has the whole area outlooked currently.
Guess this would qualify as a probable bust for chasing but I'll be out and about for awhile this evening anyway. Latest I read from NWS puts squall line in Houston proper area around midnight, maybe I can catch its development further to the NW if I time it right. More than likely just end up grumpy at the end of what looks to be a long evening.
DANG! I hate when these wretched things come through at night!
pressure falls this morning over NW TX where surface pressure have
tumbled to 29.37in. Pressure gradient has greatly increased with Waco
gusting to 40 and DFW gusting over 40 in the last hour. Strong winds
over W TX sustained above 30mph with gust over 50mph will continue
through the afternoon. Locally, gust to 40mph will be possible along
and west of a College Station to Katy to Freeport line.
AM soundings show a large cap in the 800mb-700mb layer nearing 15-20C.
This capping will keep a lid on convection within the warm sector for
most of the day. Strong upper level forcing along with short wave
cooling will arrive by late afternoon and begin to erode the capping.
Low level forcing along the front should be able to produce enough
lift to break the cap by early evening and fire off a line of
thunderstorms. AM profilers and soundings show low level jet of 45-
55kts just off the surface and then a mid level jet of 120kts+ from
the SW. Linear forcing along the frontal boundary will produce a
squall line feature this evening. Wind energy will come to the surface
in downdrafts and microburst and in any line bow segments. Damaging
winds of 60-80mph will be the main threat. Instability will be limited
to near 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and this should keep a low tornado
potential in an otherwise very favorable sheared profile for
tornadoes.
Degree of capping to the SW of Houston may prevent much more than a
line of thunderstorms or showers. The greatest severe threat is north
of I-10 although SPC has the whole area outlooked currently.
Guess this would qualify as a probable bust for chasing but I'll be out and about for awhile this evening anyway. Latest I read from NWS puts squall line in Houston proper area around midnight, maybe I can catch its development further to the NW if I time it right. More than likely just end up grumpy at the end of what looks to be a long evening.
DANG! I hate when these wretched things come through at night!