donsutherland1
08-10-2004, 05:40 PM
The latest data reveals that the Pacific Ocean is pregnant with its warm offspring. Soon, a child will be born. El Niño that is.
The July 2004 ENSO regional data is now available:
• Region 1+2: 20.77°C
• Region 3.4: 27.67°C
The anomaly at Region 3.4 is now +0.59°C. An El Niño occurs when the anomalies at Region 3.4 exceed 0.50°C for three or more consecutive months.
With the July data now freshly released, the actual data is marching in harmony with those Prophets--the models and analogs--that have been heralding El Niño's birth for some time.
At this point in time, it still appears that the coming El Niño will not even rival its super predecessors of 1982-83 and 1997-98.
In addition, it is not likely to call an early end to the Tropical Weather party that has now grown lively with Bonnie and Charley dancing toward the Gulf of Mexico and then possible U.S. landfalls.
Let's take a quick look at the implications for the Hurricane Season.
The difference in temperature between the above two ENSO regions is 6.90°C, the 3rd highest for July since recordkeeping began in 1950.
In years in which July saw this difference come to 6.50°C or above (with Region 3.4 having the warmer temperature), all seasons saw 10 or more named storms:
1966: 11
1970: 10
1996: 13
2002: 12
2003: 16
In addition, both 1970 and 1996 saw a major hurricane make landfall on the U.S. coastline.
Will 2004 be the first year since 1999 for such a landfall?
Stay tuned on that matter.
What is more certain is that El Niño really is coming.
The July 2004 ENSO regional data is now available:
• Region 1+2: 20.77°C
• Region 3.4: 27.67°C
The anomaly at Region 3.4 is now +0.59°C. An El Niño occurs when the anomalies at Region 3.4 exceed 0.50°C for three or more consecutive months.
With the July data now freshly released, the actual data is marching in harmony with those Prophets--the models and analogs--that have been heralding El Niño's birth for some time.
At this point in time, it still appears that the coming El Niño will not even rival its super predecessors of 1982-83 and 1997-98.
In addition, it is not likely to call an early end to the Tropical Weather party that has now grown lively with Bonnie and Charley dancing toward the Gulf of Mexico and then possible U.S. landfalls.
Let's take a quick look at the implications for the Hurricane Season.
The difference in temperature between the above two ENSO regions is 6.90°C, the 3rd highest for July since recordkeeping began in 1950.
In years in which July saw this difference come to 6.50°C or above (with Region 3.4 having the warmer temperature), all seasons saw 10 or more named storms:
1966: 11
1970: 10
1996: 13
2002: 12
2003: 16
In addition, both 1970 and 1996 saw a major hurricane make landfall on the U.S. coastline.
Will 2004 be the first year since 1999 for such a landfall?
Stay tuned on that matter.
What is more certain is that El Niño really is coming.