Charley-CATEGORY 4!!!!!!!-145 MPH [Archive]

ticka1

08-07-2004, 10:20 PM

Here's the numbers for the latest invest east of the windwards:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 080238
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932004) ON 20040808 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040808 0000 040808 1200 040809 0000 040809 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.7N 44.7W 9.3N 48.0W 9.8N 51.4W 10.2N 54.8W
BAMM 8.7N 44.7W 9.2N 48.3W 9.8N 51.8W 10.4N 55.2W
A98E 8.7N 44.7W 8.8N 48.6W 9.2N 52.1W 9.9N 55.3W
LBAR 8.7N 44.7W 9.1N 48.7W 9.8N 53.0W 10.6N 57.4W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040810 0000 040811 0000 040812 0000 040813 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 58.0W 12.2N 63.7W 14.0N 68.8W 15.5N 73.7W
BAMM 11.3N 58.2W 13.5N 62.9W 16.0N 66.8W 17.9N 70.9W
A98E 10.4N 58.1W 12.2N 63.0W 13.9N 67.6W 16.3N 72.1W
LBAR 11.2N 61.4W 13.1N 67.6W 17.1N 70.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 64KTS 71KTS 76KTS
DSHP 53KTS 64KTS 71KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.7N LONCUR = 44.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 41.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 36.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

StingRay

08-09-2004, 10:09 PM

000 WTNT43

KNHC 100250

TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TYPICALLY UNFAVORABLE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE BANDING IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE ARE EARLIER TODAY...NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE STILL APPEARS DISORGANIZED AS A NEW CENTER APPEARS TO BE FORMING FURTHER NORTH. ACCORDINGLY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD AND THE DEPRESSION IS WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A MORE STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.

MOTION CONTINUES AT A BRISK 285/20. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND STEER THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE DEPTH OF THE STORM AND THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NOGAPS MAINTAINS A SHALLOW STORM AND TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM WHICH TURNS MORE NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR AS THE GFDL OR GFS WHICH BOTH TAKE THE STORM OVER JAMAICA.

FORECASTER RHOME/LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 12.4N 64.1W 30 KT

12HR VT 10/1200Z 13.1N 66.7W 30 KT

24HR VT 11/0000Z 14.2N 70.1W 35 KT

36HR VT 11/1200Z 15.3N 73.4W 45 KT

48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.4N 76.2W 50 KT

72HR VT 13/0000Z 18.5N 80.0W 60 KT

96HR VT 14/0000Z 20.8N 83.3W 65 KT

120HR VT 15/0000Z 24.0N 86.0W 70 KT

longtalltexan79

08-10-2004, 04:22 AM

000
WTNT33 KNHC 100852
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE AUG 10 2004

...DEPRESSION UPGRADED TO THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS
MORNING.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT
450 MILES... 725 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.0 N... 66.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN

Looks like this weekend may be a long one depending on where this thing is going to go and how strong it gets...it's on!

StingRay

08-10-2004, 04:54 AM

000

Wtnt43 Knhc 100850

Tcdat3

Tropical Storm Charley Discussion Number 4

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Am Edt Tue Aug 10 2004

The Deep Convection That Formed Near The Center Overnight Has Persisted During The Past Few Hours As The Cyclone Appears To Be Getting Better Organized. While Outer Bands Of Deep Convection Are Currently Minimal But Increasing...the Circulation Occupies A Large Envelope And Outflow Is Excellent In All Directions. Dvorak Ci Numbers Are A Consensus 2.5...and On This Basis The System Is Upgraded To Tropical Storm Charley With An Intensity Of 35 Kt.

Charley Continues To Speed Along At 285/21...slightly Faster Than Previously...perhaps In Part Due To The Increased Depth Of The Convection. Most Track Guidance Indicates That This West-northwestward Motion Should Continue For About The Next Two Days...with Steering Provided By The Subtropical Ridge Centered North Of The Greater Antilles. However...the Models Diverge Thereafter As Charley Reaches A Weakness In The Ridge Caused By A Mid-latitude Trough Over The Eastern United States. While The Nogaps...gfdl...and Ukmet Now Take The System Over The Yucatan Peninsula...well To The Left Of The Previous Forecast...the Gfs Takes Charley Into The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico At Days Four And Five. Given The Wide Spread...the Official Forecast Is Nudged Only Slightly To The Left Of The Previous Forecast...and A Little Faster Given The Current Motion.

The Environment Ahead Of Charley Is Quite Favorable...with Very Weak Vertical Shear And An Increasingly Warm Ocean. The Gfdl Makes Charley A Hurricane Within Three Days...and Ships Does So In Less Than Two Days. The Official Forecast Is Closer To The Gfdl Intensity Guidance...but Indicates More Intensification Than The Previous Advisory Due To The Improving Organization Of The System.

Forecaster Knabb/franklin

Initial 10/0900z 13.0n 66.3w 35 Kt

12hr Vt 10/1800z 13.9n 69.3w 40 Kt

24hr Vt 11/0600z 15.0n 72.9w 45 Kt

36hr Vt 11/1800z 16.3n 76.2w 50 Kt

48hr Vt 12/0600z 17.5n 79.0w 55 Kt

72hr Vt 13/0600z 19.5n 82.5w 65 Kt

96hr Vt 14/0600z 22.5n 86.0w 75 Kt

120hr Vt 15/0600z 26.0n 88.0w 80 Kt

ticka1

08-10-2004, 05:01 AM

This is what we have waited all season for - tracking the tropics and watching the storms. Looks like this week and the weekend will be extremely busy. The chatroom will be open each night for discussions and even during the day. Stop by and talk about the storms.

Ticka Marie

StingRay

08-10-2004, 05:01 AM

Morning all. Thanks to longtalltexan79 for getting the new thing up on Charley. She's our night owl in case anyone didn't know.

so here's a nice sat of Mr. Charley this morning. Daughter SHOULD be calling this morning so I'll hear from her what it's like and relay the info to ya'll.

she should be getting some of the outer fringes I would think. Gonna be a busy day around here!!!

ticka1

08-10-2004, 05:25 AM

Wow Charley really got his act together over night - he looks like a tropical storm in that picture. Please post when you hear from Mel. Hopefully Charley is already past them and she can enjoy the cruiuse for the rest of the week.

StingRay

08-10-2004, 08:56 AM

Wtnt33

Knhc 101428

Tcpat3

Bulletin Tropical Storm Charley Advisory Number 5

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Ast Tue Aug 10 2004 ...charley

Continues Moving Rapidly West-northwestward Over The Caribbean...

At 11 Am Ast...the Government Of Jamaica Has Issued A Tropical Storm Watch For Jamaica.

Interests In And Around The Central And Northwest Caribbean Sea Should Closely Monitor The Progress Of This System.

At 11 Am Ast...1500z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Charley Was Located Near Latitude 13.7 North... Longitude 68.3 West Or About 350 Miles... 560 Km... South-southeast Of Santo Domingo In The Dominican Republic.

Charley Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 24 Mph ...39 Km/hr...and This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph... 75 Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 105 Miles ...165 Km From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1005 Mb...29.68 Inches.

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter Plane Is Scheduled To Investigate Charley Late This Afternoon.

Repeating The 11 Am Ast Position...13.7 N... 68.3 W. Movement Toward...west-northwest Near 24 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds... 45 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 2 Pm Ast Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 5 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Pasch

StingRay

08-10-2004, 08:59 AM

000

Wtnt43 Knhc 101429

Tcdat3

Tropical Storm Charley Discussion Number 5

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Tue Aug 10 2004

The Tropical Storm Continues To Gradually Become Better Organized. Banding Features Have Become A Little Better Defined And Dvorak Intensity Estimates Are 35 Kt...35 Kt...and 45 Kt...from Afwa...sab...and Tafb Respectively. Current Intensity Is Set At 40 Kt. An Air Force Plane Is Scheduled To Check Out The Storm Later Today And Should Give A Better Estimate Of The Strength Of Charley. Upper-level Outflow Is Particularly Prominent Over The Northern Semicircle...and The Environment Continues To Appear Favorable For Strengthening. Thus The Official Forecast Shows A Steady Increase In Strength But Is More Conservative Than The Ships Or Gfdl Guidance. Charley Is Likely To Be A Hurricane Over The Northwest Caribbean But There Is Always A Fair Amount Of Uncertainty In Intensity Predictions At 72 Hours And Beyond.

The Wind Radii Have Been Expanded A Bit Based On A Recent Quikscat Overpass...and The 12 Ft Seas Were Adjusted Based On A Report From Ship Elwr5 To The Northwest Of Charley.

There Has Been No Significant Change To The Estimated Motion. Charley Remains Embedded In A Swift Easterly Steering Current To The South Of A Strong Deep Layer High. Track Guidance Is Rather Tightly Clustered Through About 72 Hours...but Becomes More Divergent Thereafter. By That Time...the Steering Currents Will Likely Weaken As A Result Of A Large Mid-tropospheric Trough Over The Eastern United States. The Gfs And Gfdl Models Are The Easternmost Of The Ensemble With The Nogaps And U.k. Met. Office Tracks Substantially Farther West Over The Central Gulf. However These Latter Two Tracks Are Probably Too Far To The Left Because Of An Unrealistically Weak Vortex In The Simulation. The Official Forecast Leans Toward The Gfs/gfdl Solutions.

Forecaster Pasch/brown

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 10/1500z 13.7n 68.3w 40 Kt

12hr Vt 11/0000z 14.5n 71.3w 45 Kt

24hr Vt 11/1200z 15.7n 75.0w 50 Kt

36hr Vt 12/0000z 17.0n 78.0w 55 Kt

48hr Vt 12/1200z 18.3n 80.5w 60 Kt

72hr Vt 13/1200z 20.5n 84.5w 70 Kt

96hr Vt 14/1200z 24.0n 86.5w 80 Kt

120hr Vt 15/1200z 28.0n 87.0w 85 Kt

StingRay

08-10-2004, 12:22 PM

000
Wtnt33 Knhc 101747
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Charley Intermediate Advisory Number 5a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
2 Pm Ast Tue Aug 10 2004

...charley Continues Moving Rapidly West-northwestward Over The
Caribbean...

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For Jamaica. This Watch Will
Probably Be Changed To A Warning Later Today. A Tropical Storm
Watch Will Likely Be Issued For The Cayman Islands Later Today.

Interests In And Around The Central And Northwest Caribbean Sea
Should Closely Monitor The Progress Of This System.

At 2 Pm Ast...1800z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Charley Was
Located Near Latitude 14.5 North...longitude 69.7 West Or About
275 Miles... 440 Km...south Of Santo Domingo In The Dominican
Republic.

Charley Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 24 Mph
...39 Km/hr...and This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For
The Next 24 Hours. On This Track The Center Will Be Approaching
Jamaica Tuesday Morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph... 75 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 105 Miles
...165 Km From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1005 Mb...29.68 Inches.

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter Plane Is Scheduled To
Investigate Charley Later This Afternoon.

Repeating The 2 Pm Ast Position...14.5 N... 69.7 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 24 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds... 45 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
5 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Pasch

StingRay

08-10-2004, 05:16 PM

000
Wtnt33 Knhc 102048
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Charley Advisory Number 6
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Pm Ast Tue Aug 10 2004

...charley Continues Moving Rapidly West-northwestward Over The
Caribbean...tropical Storm Warnings Issued...

At 5 Pm Ast...2100z...the Government Of Haiti Has Issued A Tropical
Storm Warning For The Entire Southwest Peninsula Of Haiti From The
Dominican Republic Border Westward Including Port-au-prince.

At 5 Pm Ast...2100z...the Government Of Jamaica Has Issued A
Tropical Storm Warning For Jamaica.

At 5 Pm Ast...2100z...the Government Of The Cayman Islands Has
Issued A Tropical Storm Watch For The Cayman Islands.

At 5 Pm Ast...2100z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Charley Was
Located Near Latitude 15.2 North... Longitude 70.8 West Or About
440 Miles... 710 Km...east-southeast Of Kingston Jamaica.

Charley Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 26 Mph
...43 Km/hr...and This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For
The Next 24 Hours. On This Track The Center Of The Storm Will Be
Nearing Jamaica Tomorrow Morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph... 85 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 105 Miles
...165 Km From The Center.

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter Plane Recently Reported A
Minimum Central Pressure Of 999 Mb...29.50 Inches.

Rainfall Totals Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Likely In Association With
Charley.

Repeating The 5 Pm Ast Position...15.2 N... 70.8 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 26 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds... 50 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 999 Mb.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 8 Pm Ast Followed By The Next
Complete Advisory At 11 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Pasch

StingRay

08-10-2004, 05:17 PM

000
Wtnt23 Knhc 102049
Tcmat3
Tropical Storm Charley Forecast/advisory Number 6
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al032004
2100z Tue Aug 10 2004

At 5 Pm Ast...2100z...the Government Of Haiti Has Issued A Tropical
Storm Warning For The Entire Southwest Peninsula Of Haiti From The
Dominican Republic Border Westward Including Port-au-prince.

At 5 Pm Ast...2100z...the Government Of Jamaica Has Issued A
Tropical Storm Warning For Jamaica.

At 5 Pm Ast...2100z...the Government Of The Cayman Islands Has
Issued A Tropical Storm Watch For The Cayman Islands.

Tropical Storm Center Located Near 15.2n 70.8w At 10/2100z
Position Accurate Within 30 Nm

Present Movement Toward The West-northwest Or 295 Degrees At 23 Kt

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure 999 Mb
Max Sustained Winds 45 Kt With Gusts To 55 Kt.
34 Kt....... 90ne 50se 0sw 75nw.
12 Ft Seas..175ne 100se 50sw 175nw.
Winds And Seas Vary Greatly In Each Quadrant. Radii In Nautical
Miles Are The Largest Radii Expected Anywhere In That Quadrant.

Repeat...center Located Near 15.2n 70.8w At 10/2100z
At 10/1800z Center Was Located Near 15.0n 69.8w

Forecast Valid 11/0600z 16.3n 74.0w
Max Wind 50 Kt...gusts 60 Kt.
34 Kt... 90ne 50se 0sw 75nw.

Forecast Valid 11/1800z 17.7n 77.4w
Max Wind 55 Kt...gusts 65 Kt.
50 Kt... 30ne 30se 0sw 30nw.
34 Kt... 90ne 50se 30sw 75nw.

Forecast Valid 12/0600z 19.4n 80.0w
Max Wind 55 Kt...gusts 65 Kt.
50 Kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
34 Kt... 90ne 60se 60sw 90nw.

Forecast Valid 12/1800z 21.0n 82.0w
Max Wind 65 Kt...gusts 80 Kt.
50 Kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 Kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.

Forecast Valid 13/1800z 25.0n 83.5w
Max Wind 75 Kt...gusts 90 Kt.
50 Kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 Kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.

Extended Outlook. Note...errors For Track Have Averaged Near 250 Nm
On Day 4 And 325 Nm On Day 5...and For Intensity Near 20 Kt Each Day

Outlook Valid 14/1800z 29.0n 83.5w
Max Wind 85 Kt...gusts 105 Kt.

Outlook Valid 15/1800z 33.0n 81.5w...inland
Max Wind 25 Kt...gusts 35 Kt.

Request For 3 Hourly Ship Reports Within 300 Miles Of 15.2n 70.8w

Next Advisory At 11/0300z

Forecaster Pasch

StingRay

08-10-2004, 05:18 PM

000
Wtnt43 Knhc 102050
Tcdat3
Tropical Storm Charley Discussion Number 6
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Pm Edt Tue Aug 10 2004

There Has Been A Significant Shift In Our Track Guidance For Charley
This Afternoon. It Appears That The Dynamical Models Are Showing A
Greater Influence Of The Eastern United States Trough Than In
Earlier Runs...eroding More Of The Western Periphery Of The
Subtropical Ridge And Allowing The Tropical Cyclone To Curve
Northward Sooner Than Earlier Anticipated. Based On This Guidance
Change...the Official Track Forecast Has Been Shifted Substantially
To The Right Of The Previous Ones. This Is A Little West Of The
Dynamical Model Consensus And Close To The Latest Nogaps Run.
Also...since The Forward Speed Has Not Slowed Thus Far...the Nhc
Forecast Is Faster Than The Previous One. Near The End Of The
Forecast Period...if Charley Follows The Indicated Track...the
Speed May Very Well Be Too Slow But There Is Considerable
Uncertainty In Just Where This System Will End Up In 3-5 Days.
If The Guidance For The Next Package Is Similar...the Official Track
May Have Be Shifted A Little Farther To The East.

On Their First Penetration Into This Storm...the Hurricane Hunters
Reported A 999 Mb Central Pressure. The Aircraft Has Not Yet
Sampled All Quadrants Of The Tropical Cyclone...but Based On This
Pressure Reading The Winds Have Been Increased A Little. The
Upper-level Outflow Looks Strong And The Shear Is Expected To
Remain Weak Over The Next Few Days. Therefore Conditions Appear To
Be Favorable For Intensification. Deep Convection Is Currently
Rather Weak...but This May Very Well Be A Diurnal Fluctuation. The
Official Forecast Shows Continued Strengthening But Remains More
Conservative Than The Ships Guidance.

Forecaster Pasch

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 10/2100z 15.2n 70.8w 45 Kt
12hr Vt 11/0600z 16.3n 74.0w 50 Kt
24hr Vt 11/1800z 17.7n 77.4w 55 Kt
36hr Vt 12/0600z 19.4n 80.0w 55 Kt
48hr Vt 12/1800z 21.0n 82.0w 65 Kt
72hr Vt 13/1800z 25.0n 83.5w 75 Kt
96hr Vt 14/1800z 29.0n 83.5w 85 Kt
120hr Vt 15/1800z 33.0n 81.5w 25 Kt...inland

stormy

08-10-2004, 09:48 PM

ok guys does this mean i need to go see my mom in sarasota or outlaws in tampa??? :)

ticka1

08-10-2004, 10:39 PM

According the the latest Stormy - Go to Florida - they are getting ready to recieve the double punch first with Bonnie and then with big bad Charley. All eyes on Florida this weekend.

ticka1

08-11-2004, 04:53 AM

Wtnt33 Knhc 110847
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Charley Advisory Number 8
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Am Edt Wed Aug 11 2004

...charley Approaching Jamaica...new Hurricane Watches And Warnings
Issued...

At 5 Am Edt...0900z...a Hurricane Watch Is Issued For The Florida
Keys From Dry Tortugas To Craig Key. A Hurricane Watch Means That
Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally
Within 36 Hours.

At 5 Am Edt...0900z...the Government Of The Cayman Islands Has
Issued A Hurricane Warning For The Cayman Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Remain In Effect For
Jamaica.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Entire Southwest
Peninsula Of Haiti From The Dominican Republic Border Westward
Including Port-au-prince.

Tropical Storm And/or Hurricane Warnings Will Be Required For
Portions Of Cuba Later Today.

At 5 Am Edt...0900z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Charley Was
Located Near Latitude 16.9 North...longitude 74.7 West Or About
160 Miles... 255 Km...east-southeast Of Kingston Jamaica.

Charley Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 24 Mph
...39 Km/hr...and This Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next
24 Hours...followed By A Turn To The Northwest.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 65 Mph...100 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24
Hours...and Charley Could Become A Hurricane During The Next Day Or
So.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles
...185 Km From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 999 Mb...29.50 Inches.

Above Normal Tides...accompanied By Large And Dangerous Battering
Waves...are Likely Along The Coasts Of Jamaica Today...and The
Cayman Islands Tonight.

Rainfall Totals Of 3 To 6 Inches Are Likely In Association With
Charley.

Repeating The 5 Am Edt Position...16.9 N... 74.7 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 24 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds... 65 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 999 Mb.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 8 Am Edt Followed By The Next
Complete Advisory At 11 Am Edt.

Forecaster Franklin/knabb

StingRay

08-11-2004, 06:39 AM

000

Wtnt33 Knhc 111201

Tcpat3

Bulletin

Tropical Storm Charley Intermediate Advisory Number 8a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

8 Am Edt Wed Aug 11 2004

...charley Approaching Jamaica...hurricane Hunter Plane Should Be In The Center Shortly...

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Remain In Effect For Jamaica.

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area...generally Within 24 Hours.

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For The Florida Keys From Dry Tortugas To Craig Key. A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours. Additional Watches Will Likely Be Required For Portions Of The Florida Peninsula Later Today.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Entire Southwest Peninsula Of Haiti From The Dominican Republic Border Westward Including Port-au-prince.

Tropical Storm And/or Hurricane Warnings Will Be Required For Portions Of Cuba Later Today.

At 8 Am Edt...1200z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Charley Was Located Near Latitude 16.9 North...longitude 75.4 West Or About 115 Miles... 185 Km...southeast Of Kingston Jamaica.

Charley Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 24 Mph ...39 Km/hr...and This Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours...followed By A Turn To The Northwest.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 65 Mph...100 Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours...and Charley Could Become A Hurricane During The Next Day Or So.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles ...185 Km From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 999 Mb...29.50 Inches.

Above Normal Tides...accompanied By Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...are Likely Along The Coasts Of Jamaica Today...and The Cayman Islands Tonight.

Rainfall Totals Of 3 To 6 Inches Are Likely In Association With Charley.

Repeating The 8 Am Edt Position...16.9 N... 75.4 W. Movement Toward...west-northwest Near 24 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds... 65 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 999 Mb.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 11 Am Edt.

Forecaster Pasch

Coriolis

08-11-2004, 12:28 PM

..charley Becomes A Hurricane...rain Bands Spreading Over
Jamaica...

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Remain In Effect For
Jamaica.

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Cayman Islands.

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For The Following Provinces Of
Western Cuba...pinar Del Rio...la Habana...ciudad De La
Habana...matanzas...and The Isle Of Youth.

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For The Florida Keys From Dry
Tortugas To Craig Key. A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane
Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36
Hours. Additional Watches Will Likely Be Required For Portions Of
The Florida Peninsula Later Today.

Reports From An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Plane Indicate That
Charley Has Strengthened...and Is Now A Hurricane.

At 2 Pm Edt...1800z...the Eye Of Hurricane Charley Was Located Near
Latitude 16.6 North...longitude 76.8 West Or About 90 Miles...
150 Km...south Of Kingston Jamaica.

Charley Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 18 Mph
..30 Km/hr...and A Gradual Turn To The Northwest Is Expected During
The Next Day Or So. On This Track The Center Will Be Passing To The
South Of The South Coast Of Jamaica This Afternoon And Evening.
However...bands Of Squalls With Tropical Storm Force Winds Are
Likely To Affect Much Of Jamaica Today And Tonight.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 75 Mph...120
Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Additional Strengthening Is Forecast
During The Next 24 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles
..185 Km From The Center.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By The Hurricane
Hunters Is 993 Mb...29.31 Inches.

Above Normal Tides...accompanied By Large And Dangerous Battering
Waves...are Likely Along The Coasts Of Jamaica Today...and The
Cayman Islands Tonight.

Rainfall Totals Of 3 To 6 Inches Are Likely In Association With
Charley.

ticka1

08-11-2004, 12:56 PM

Well Coriolis do you think Charley is going to visit with you soon? I hope not. I know you don't want to deal with a hurricane right now.

Keep us updated on the news from your area okay!!!

Coriolis

08-11-2004, 01:43 PM

Ticka - it is all in the timing and the forward speed of Charley. If it stays at the 18MPH - I just might get the TS winds. At least when Charley was reorganizing this morning, it shifted sw a bit - then resumed its original track. That will make it a little harder for it to make that hard turn (to me). BIL works the night shift tonight so I will know a little more at that time.

Jim

StingRay

08-11-2004, 02:48 PM

000
WTNT43 KNHC 112035
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

THE LAST RECON MISSION FOUND 80 KT AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WHICH
SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE OF CHARLEY TO A HURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A RAGGED
BANDING-TYPE EYE SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. HOWEVER THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...SO THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE...AND THE OCEAN VERY
FAVORABLE...FOR STRENGTHENING. THE LAND MASS OF WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD CAUSE AT MOST A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION OF THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT MORE AND...AFTER WOBBLING A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE
RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE...290/15. I SEE NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO CURVE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IN ABOUT
48 HOURS...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL RUN...AS WELL
AS WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE 36 HOUR FORECAST WIND RADII AND TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.0N 77.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.3N 79.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 20.5N 81.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 23.2N 82.5W 80 KT...NORTH COAST OF CUBA
48HR VT 13/1800Z 26.0N 82.5W 90 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/1800Z 43.5N 72.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1800Z 49.0N 60.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$

Coriolis

08-11-2004, 05:31 PM

Very Good job both Ticka and StingRay!!! Just in case no one has thanked you yet. :) Thanks!!

Jim

StingRay

08-11-2004, 05:45 PM

You just gotta give me those good shots, right? Once again, thank you for the beautiful picture.

StingRay

08-12-2004, 05:01 AM

000
WTNT33 KNHC 120858
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND
FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA
BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF BONITA
BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THIS MORNING.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES... 155 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER THIS
MORNING. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

StingRay

08-12-2004, 05:06 AM

000
WTNT43 KNHC 120908
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

THERE HAS BEEN A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UKMET AND THE GFDL SHOWING THE GREATEST CHANGE.
DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE G-IV MISSION LAST NIGHT SHOWED A LITTLE
MORE RIDGING OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THIS MAY HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SHIFT. I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY RADICAL CHANGE TO THE
TRACK UNTIL THIS TREND CAN BE CONFIRMED...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS A LANDFALL FROM THE TAMPA AREA
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA. BECAUSE CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA COAST AT A SHARPLY OBLIQUE
ANGLE...IT IS UNUSUALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT CHARLEY'S
LANDFALL...AS SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD CORRESPOND
TO LARGE ERRORS IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.

RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT CHARLEY STRENGTHENED
OVERNIGHT...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF JUST UNDER 100 KT.
BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST
OF THE CYCLONE IS LIMITING OUTFLOW IN THAT QUADRANT...BUT THIS MAY
BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR WHEN CHARLEY ENTERS THE GULF. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TAKES CHARLEY TO JUST SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...BUT
IT COULD JUST AS EASILY REACH THAT THRESHOLD PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
EXISTS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 18.6N 79.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 20.3N 81.3W 85 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 82.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 26.3N 83.0W 95 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 30.5N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/0600Z 40.0N 76.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0600Z 46.5N 67.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$

Coriolis

08-12-2004, 08:58 AM

HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

..CHARLEY GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. THE
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE
SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO
..LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS FOR JAMAICA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...INFORMATION FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND RADAR FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 40 KM... NORTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.7 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.

Coriolis

08-12-2004, 09:55 AM

URNT12 KNHC 121516
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1516Z
B. 19 DEG 52 MIN N
81 DEG 14 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2949 M
D. 40 KT
E. 319 DEG 027 NM
F. 049 DEG 80 KT
G. 332 DEG 007 NM
H. 980 MB
I. 9 C/ 3081 M
J. 18 C/ 3072 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/7
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF966 0603A CHARLEY OB 17
MAX FL WIND 89 KT NE QUAD 1336Z.

ticka1

08-12-2004, 02:24 PM

WTNT33 KNHC 121742
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...CHARLEY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES TOWARD WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO
THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO ...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...INFORMATION FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND RADARS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES... 305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR JUST
EAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...20.4 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

StingRay

08-12-2004, 02:32 PM

Now THAT'S what I call a HURRICANE. Small, powerful, deadly. The season has begun boys and girls, batten down the hatches..................

StingRay

08-12-2004, 02:51 PM

Thanks James, my hands were getting tired!!!!!

longtalltexan79

08-12-2004, 03:21 PM

Here is the radar out of Cuba...shows the eye wonderfully as it makes its approach towards the Cuban coastline...

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/Cienfuegos/cienfuegosa.gif

stormy

08-12-2004, 05:13 PM

that is a well defined eye, so its moving nnw, expected to move north, so all of florida could be in trouble? do we think this will just touch the coast and not across? so many questions, have lots of family in fla along the gulf coast. so living in b'ham i could get somthing from this or is it expected to turn again? almost left today for sarasota to help my mom but my brother has taken over, which is good he's in north miami.

StingRay

08-12-2004, 05:42 PM

StingRay

08-12-2004, 06:21 PM

000
WTNT33 KNHC 122340
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...CHARLEY PASSING THE ISLE OF YOUTH AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN
CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO BAYPORT. THE WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM NORTH OF BAYPORT NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA BAY. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM JUPITER INLET
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST OR JUST EAST OF THE
ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTH
OF HAVANA CUBA.

CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH
...27 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR HAVANA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. IN ADDITION...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS ALSO
POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...21.7 N... 82.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

windy

08-12-2004, 07:58 PM

Bonnie is not that much to worry about but charley on the other hand needs to be watched closley. Florida will get the brunt of hurricane charley and I pray that no lives or injuries evolve around this powerful hurricane. I live on the east coast middle peninsula. Not sure what sat. will look like but have a feeling floods and winds will be the main culpert. With bonnie not too much to worry about. Please keep in touch let us know how things are in your area that is being effected by these two storms. Take care windy. :)

StingRay

08-12-2004, 09:09 PM

Florida Keys Webcam
http://hogsbreath.com/hogcam/
Naples Webcam
http://web.naplesnews.com/webcam/ndn_central/

StingRay

08-12-2004, 09:57 PM

Far be it from me to bash anyone BUUUUUUUUUUUTTTTTTTTTTTT,
When TWC's Jennifer Lopex says that Florida COULD experience winds up to 105 mph, I just wanna scream
"YO LADY, THE WINDS ARE SUSTAINED, GET IT SUSTAINED, AT 105 MPH. THAT MEANS THAT FLORIDA COULD EXPERIENCE GUSTS UP TO 140 MPH".

JINKIES. I feel sorry for folk who depend on TWC for their weather. They will be sadly misinformed.

stormy

08-12-2004, 09:59 PM

Stormy, I'm still hearing it will curve to the nne EVENTUALLY so being on the west side, I wouldn't be having a fit. HOWEVER, do NOT let down your guard since one never knows until it's on land exactly where it's going to be. To me, anyone along Florida's west coast should be getting the hell out of dodge as I type this, unless they are just REALLY itching for a close encounter of the dangerous kind. My friend in Naples has already left. Good think you didn't go down to Sarasota, wouldn't want you trapped down there. Your mom is OUT OF THERE, RIGHT?
well she is leaving sarasota at 6AM tomorrow. going to miami. gosh i hope i dont get that stubborn when i get old. guys if i am reading it right that coming into tampa. i called outlaws today in Tampa, and they said they were staying, they did move the car from the beach house but not in clearwater where they r going to stay. i sure hope they r ok dont have time to go down and visit anybody in the hospital. so i will stay tuned, thanks guys for keeping me informed

stormy

08-12-2004, 10:01 PM

stingRay i havent had the weather channel on in years. dont like the channel much.

stormy

08-12-2004, 10:14 PM

hey windy stay safe and let us know how u r doing. most of my family is in fla so my stomach is doing the dance right now.

StingRay

08-13-2004, 04:43 AM

000
WTNT33 KNHC 130848
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...HURRICANE CHARLEY IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 5 AM...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG
THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE
SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGHTENING IS POSSIBLE AND
CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 82.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM EDT AND 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

StingRay

08-13-2004, 04:44 AM

000
WTNT43 KNHC 130853
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT AFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE
EYE STILL REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH ABOUT AN 18 N MI DIAMETER. MAX
WINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE WERE 104 KNOTS AT 700 MB WITH AN
EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 968 MB AND 970 MB BY A DROP. KEY WEST
RADAR SHOWED DOPPLER WINDS HIGHER THAN 100 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING ADJUSTED TO 95 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THE WATER IS WARM. THEREFORE....CHARLEY IS
LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL.

CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN GUIDANCE AND MOST OF THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY
BRING THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA BRINGING THE CENTER INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE HURRICANE
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. THE EXTENTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND RADII TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS AS
INDICATED.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 23.9N 82.9W 95 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 26.3N 82.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 29.8N 82.5W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 81.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0600Z 38.0N 78.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/0600Z 45.5N 73.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$

StingRay

08-13-2004, 04:44 AM

000
WTNT51 KNHC 130958
TCEAT
HURRICANE CHARLEY POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

AT 6 AM EDT....1100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FORECASTER AVILA

StingRay

08-13-2004, 04:48 AM

Once again our thoughts and prayers are with all our members, guests and their families and friends as Hurricane Charley approaches. Everyone stay safe and check in if you need anything.

WildOnWeather Admins & Mods

http://us.f1.yahoofs.com/bc/14351a9d/bc/smilies/grouphug.gif?BCm1JHBBIET0eo80

StingRay

08-13-2004, 05:52 AM

000
WTNT33 KNHC 131054
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...HURRICANE CHARLEY ON TRACK...WIND GUSTS TO 124 MPH IN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
COASTS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S.
COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM
NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CUBA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM. PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM CUBA INDICATE THAT
PEAK WINDS OF NEAR 124 MPH...200 KM/HR WERE MEASURED JUST WEST OF
HAVANA NEAR THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...24.3 N... 82.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

StingRay

08-13-2004, 07:42 AM

000
WTNT33 KNHC 131255
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...HURRICANE CHARLEY ON TRACK...EYE MOVING OVER DRY TORTUGAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S.
COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM
NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CUBA WAS DISCONTINUED AT 7 AM EDT.

AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY AS CHARLEY APPROACHES
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

SAND KEY NEAR KEY WEST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH DURING THE
LAST HOUR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 82.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

$$

stormy

08-13-2004, 09:14 AM

so where is charley suppost to hit,or do we know yet. they r saying on the news down in miami it going to hit south of Tampa. gosh my ears hunt from talking to all down in south Fla.

Coriolis

08-13-2004, 09:25 AM

Stormy -

The latest advisory has the storm track adjusted to the right a bit - with that - it now looks just south of Tampa Bay is where the landfall of the eye. But it can still change of course.

Jim

Coriolis

08-13-2004, 11:02 AM

Charley is now a Category 3 storm - 125mph.

StingRay

08-13-2004, 11:21 AM

Ok, I HOPE I heard wrong, surface winds of 140+, flight level winds of 160+. Special advisory on the way..........

I didn't hear wrong......

000
WTNT61 KNHC 131716
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

AT 115 PM EDT...1715Z...A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED 10000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 162 MPH AT A
DISTANCE OF 8 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. THIS GIVES
AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

LAWRENCE

Coriolis

08-13-2004, 11:35 AM

I hate to say it StingRay - but you are correct - it is now a category 4.

Jim

985
URNT12 KNHC 131702
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1701Z
B. 25 DEG 44 MIN N
82 DEG 31 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2705 M
D. 105 KT
E. 154 DEG 004 NM
F. 212 DEG 141 KT
G. 133 DEG 010 NM
H. 954 MB
I. 9 C/ 3061 M
J. 18 C/ 3101 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF963 0903A CHARLEY OB 14
MAX FL WIND 141 KT NE QUAD 1658Z.

StingRay

08-13-2004, 11:43 AM

God be with whoever didn't or couldn't get out of Charley's path.............

Coriolis

08-13-2004, 12:21 PM

2 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

..CHARLEY STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND HEADS FOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE ALSO ISSUED FROM NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH FLORIDA...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY
OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONCENTRATED IN A VERY SMALL AREA
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED
MAY OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER
TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 82.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

StingRay

08-13-2004, 01:27 PM

943 MB AS OF LATEST RECON-DROP OF 11 MBS. IN ONE HOUR!!!!!!!!!1

StingRay

08-13-2004, 03:02 PM

JustAsIAm

08-13-2004, 03:05 PM

I am watch a live stream, from a local florida tv station. They are saying for Weather questions you can call 239-275-8820 or 800-329-8820.

StingRay

08-13-2004, 03:07 PM

Gracias, that number will come in handy. Heard the damage is devastating so far. This evening should be VERY interesting regarding live feeds and FEMA coming in. Figures Red Cross doesn't call me this time...............

Coriolis

08-13-2004, 03:12 PM

Another wonderful shot Jim. Someday when I get time, I'll actually be able to view the links on my own. Thank heavens I got you to provide them in the interim.............

:love4:

You okay over there?

I'm doing great. I decided to put shutters on now - just in case of some possible gusts - I might even keep some of them on depending till I see what TD#4 or TD#5 might do. Although this is not on the same thread - the Logo and the rest of the board looks great.

Jim

StingRay

08-13-2004, 03:19 PM

Glad you like the new stuff.

Shutters are prolly a good thing now that we have two more of them to watch.

StingRay

08-14-2004, 05:13 AM

Watching the devastation on TV this morning.............sad, horrible, tragic, too many adjectives.

My thoughts are with all of those in Florida right now.

windy

08-14-2004, 11:18 AM

I feel for those residents in florida having to suffer so much damage. Charley is coming to visit my area today sat. 8-14. Even though it will hit as a tropical storm it still can do some damage. Were suppose to feel the effects around 2 & on. I will keep everyone posted until the electricity goes off. Which I pray it won't. Take care windy. :butterfly

StingRay

08-14-2004, 12:11 PM

Windy, you make sure you keep us posted on how you're managing. We'll be thinking of you.................

http://us.f1.yahoofs.com/bc/14351a9d/bc/GIFS/hug.gif?BCXnlHBBBah3x4jO

amy

08-14-2004, 09:02 PM

Last night my girlfriend Phyllis called me. She moved to the Orlando area one year ago (she wanted to relocate to paradise so she quit her job, bought a house and moved from New York City last August). She was hysterically crying. Charley had moved in unexpectedly. She was in her closet with her 4 cats and 2 dogs, in the dark, no electric, on her cell phone. She was panicking, crying and asking me what to do. She had no idea that the storm would come her way and did not prepare or evacuate. The weather station was all wrong. She said the house was shaking and she could feel it moving, she could hear things banging around outside and the winds were so loud it was scary. What was I suppose to do and say? I felt helpless. I tried to calm her saying that the storm would pass soon and she needed to sit tight and wait. Keep the closet door closed and hold on to the animals. Asked her if she had a bottle of vodka with her-- have a shot, take deep breaths and very soon it would be over. I told her she needs to save her cell phone battery for later once the storm passes. No electric, no cell charge. I assured her she would be fine. We hung up and I couldn't stop thinking about her all night. Couldn't sleep. I felt guilty that I couldn't do anything more and wondered if I had said the right things. She was all alone and in a major hurricane. How awful!!!!

I started calling her home this morning, no answer, and the cell, "circuits are busy". And 10:30 I had to leave my house and was home by 11:15 to find a message from her that she was okay. She reported that her house had some damage, her yard is covered with debris and totally trashed, her fruit trees were gone, the screen room is lying in the pool along with pieces of furniture, other houses and tree parts. The only thing that really matters is she is okay and all the pets are fine. I wanted to share this story with you all.
.....Now what's with #5 now named Earl? Looks like he's on the same path as Charley. Is it possible for this to happen again?

StingRay

08-14-2004, 09:13 PM

Amy, how godawful for her. Just reading your post gave me the chills, I can't even imagine how Phyllis felt or even how YOU felt trying to be the best friend you could. Chilling, giving me goosebumps. At least she's okay. Thanks for sharing with us.

ticka1

08-14-2004, 09:23 PM

Amy thanks for that story. You told her the best advice there was - to stay in the closet with her cats and save cellphone battery for later. You were a great friend. I'm not sure how I would of reacted but you did an excellent job.

As for not being prepared I hope people now look to getting a hurricane kit - having all their stuff bought before the storms even develop.

We are going to Home Depot tomorrow of batteries - flashlites and other small items for the kit so if Earl comes this way - we won't be in the mad rush. And I don't think anyone is in the clear for Earl. Too many variables to determine - so if folks go posting about landfall - just remember BE PREPARED no matter what!!

stormy

08-15-2004, 08:22 AM

amy i am so sorry that i didnt see this yesterday. i am glad your friend is ok. my neice lives in orlando too, but she didnt have any damage. your friend is lucky. nobody really thinks of inland damage from a hurricane. we all need to be prepared. i hope earl doesnt come fla's way either, but we will have to see. have you gotten shutters yet?

amy

08-15-2004, 03:26 PM

The clean-up has begun in the area of Orlando where Charley came through. My friend Phyllis is alive and well.....totally exhausted and talking about moving back to New York. Her electricity was restored today.

I heard on the news that DisneyWorld has reopened. I can't imagine a storm that can uproot mature orange trees on one side of town and not do any damage to the theme parks.

And no............I can't afford hurricane shutters and have given up the idea all together of trying to protect the house. They are just too expensive. I will have to rely on my homeowners insurance should I need to. Let's hope we don't have to deal with any storms coming to SE Florida. My plan, if I have to, is to EVACUATE. No hiding in the closet for me!