Will It SNow or Will it Not?

[ticka1]

Seems like there are to camps on this one......after trying to watch the local news weather reports....I'm convinced that this might just be a MAJOR ARTIC blast and we won't get any snow. But then each of the stations had 30-50% chance of some wet stuff - whether it be ice/sleet/snow??????

So post your thoughts here and we will wait and see what happens....."AS THE SNOWSTORM TURNS"... LOLL

[Bozo]

Okay, it's way too early for me but here goes. TWC now shows NO chance of precip for us, while Accuwx is still showing precip beginning after midnight. The latest from NWS here isn't out yet. And bottom line, I'm going to wait to hear from our Most Revered Forecaster since he has a better grip on what's going on here than any place else.

My bet-It's on. Could be pure wishcasting on my part but I'm gonna cling to that original forecast by the skin of my teeth. Plan on hitting the sack EARLY today and beginning "SnoWatch 2004" promptly around 3:00 AM Friday morning.

Folks, we must not lose faith!!!!

[Bozo]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
413 AM CST THU DEC 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING OVER SE TX. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET MEANDERING BACK NORTHWARD A
BIT TO HELP BRING PRECIPITATION TO SE TX FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS INCLUDE WINDS TODAY...
TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

WILL REDO THE WIND ADVISORY AREA FOR THIS MORNING TO EXTEND IT IN THE
COASTAL COASTAL COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THAT DOES NOT SAY THAT GUSTY
WINDS WILL NOT OCCUR FURTHER INLAND AS THE CENTRAL TIER OF COUNTIES
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO 25 MPH. AS THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DECREASES LATER TODAY THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

CONCERNING THE TEMPERATURE PROBLEM...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY ON TRACK. FEEL THAT TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE MOS
OUTPUT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION -- THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS BEFORE SUNRISE THAT ALLOWS THE
TEMPERATURES TO REALLY DROP (SEE CLL). THE WIND CHILL WILL PROBABLY
BE THE MOST NOTABLE ITEM TODAY. TONIGHT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING QUICKLY. FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT. SEE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES FOR FRIDAY IS THE NEXT ITEM TO
TACKLE. THE ETA IS STILL DRIER BUT IS COMING IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
THE GFS CONTINUES BRINGING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE. THE PW AND 1000
TO 500 MB THICKNESS FORECASTS INDICATED GOOD THICKNESS SATURATION AT
OR HIGHER THAN 70 PERCENT INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ON BOTH
THE GFS AND ETA ON FRIDAY AND THE MAV...FWC...AND MET OUTPUT ALL ARE
INDICATING A CHANCE OF PRECIP. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WET
BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT AS IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONE
OF THE MAJOR KEYS TO WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND AS
THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT DRIER IN THE LOW-LEVELS THAN 24
HOURS AGO. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA FORECAST THE 32 WET BULB ZERO ISOLINE
RIGHT AT THE COASTLINE. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL START THE
PRECIPITATION AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST BEFORE 12Z
FRIDAY WITH ALL SNOW CHANCES FURTHER INLAND. AFTER 12Z WILL GO WITH
ALL SNOW CHANCES. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE BAYS (WHERE A MIX
SHOULD CONTINUE GIVEN THE WET BULB ZERO FORECASTS) AND OVER THE GULF
WATERS (WHERE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT).

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND WILL TREK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AND LAST INTO LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

PL-40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY COASTAL COUNTIES UNTIL 18Z.
SCA GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS.
SCA 00 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 22 32 20 44 / 05 10 30 05 00
HOUSTON (IAH) 41 26 33 23 45 / 05 20 40 10 00
GALVESTON (GLS) 42 32 35 30 45 / 10 30 50 20 00

Note the POPS folks, holding steady at 40%, so I say, GAME ON. Really, think Jeff is right on the money and now that NWS is buying into it, this is it. It's really going to happen. Get out them thar snow shovels!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ticka1]

Woohoo Game on again!!!!!! Bozo - keep me updated - please. Getting myself into work and out at 3:30 p.m. - with that - I better get ready and gone this morning. Its a CHILLY 31 degrees right now.

[Bozo]

No problem, I'll holler as the need dictates. I'll be out and about this morning, then will nestle into my humble abode................figure I'll hit the bed around 8:00 to be up at 3:00 AM. I'm so addicted it's pathetic.

[ticka1]

Your going to bed??? I was going to pull an all-nighter staying up from 11 p.m. until the next morning? LOL I think I'll bring my pillow on the front porch and by the computer.

MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!

Let me know what Jeff sends out this morning!

[BaytownWeatherWatcher]

It's going to snow. I believe! I have a question though. What does 12Z mean in the NWS forecasts? Thanks!

MERRY CHRISTMAS! :santaclau :santaclau