Bozo
12-22-2004, 09:37 AM
Will be updating the forecast for an extended period of sub-freezing temps. and winter precip.
This may be as close as Houston ever gets to a white Christmas!!!!!
Strong arctic front moving into SE TX this morning with temps already down to 46 at Collage Station compared to 65 at Hobby. Large area of moderate snow can be found from Midland to just west of Dallas ahead of a strong short wave trough. Accumulations of 3-5 inches have already occurred over W TX and major interstates are snow packed and slushy from west of Fort Worth to the NM border.
Today:
Strong cold air advection will take over by mid morning with temps falling into the mid 40's by afternoon. Rain will gradually end from the west, although some may mix with ice pellets over our northern counties.
Thursday:
strong short wave in th polar trough to our west will begin isentropic lifting over the area. Lows near freezing will only make highs near 40 under continued strong cold air advection and increasing cloud cover.
Thursday night:
upper level energy forces a coastal trough and low over the NW Gulf. Moisture is brought northward into the frigid air mass over the region with precip. breaking out. Will go with a rain/snow mixture for now, even through the profiles favor all snow or sleet. Meso-scale banding could result in very heavy snow bursts over the region with significant loss in visibility. Temps will fall into the mid and upper 20's allowing whatever falls to accumulate on grassy surfaces. There is still the potential that the coastal trough could form far enough offshore to limit our moisture supply, which would greatly reduce our precip chances.
Christmas Eve:
Strong isentropic lifting continues with frozen precip expected. Highs should remain below freezing. Will go above the guidance high of 29 and forecast temps in the low 30's. I strongly believe temps will remain steady. Precip. sleet/snow mix should gradually end from the WSW by the early afternoon as the short wave pushes across the area.
Christmas Day:
cloudy and continued very cold. Lows in the mid 20's with highs near freezing. Flurries are possible in the morning as the long wave torugh moves across the state.
Persons should take precautions to protect pipes and plants for an extended period of sub-freezing temps. Temps. may fall below freezing late Thursday and not rise above freezing until midday Sunday.
This is a low to moderate confidence forecast:
Today: cloudy and turning much colder. temps. falling into the low to mid 40's by late afternoon. N wind 20-25mph and gusty.
Tonight: cloudy and cold with decreasing clouds late. Lows in the lower 30's. N winds 15-25mph and gusty.
Thursday: increasing clouds and cold. Highs in the low to mid 40's. N winds 10-20mph and gusty.
Thursday night: cloudy with a 30% chance of rain/snow/sleet after midnight. Some accumulation is possible on grassy surfaces. Lows in the mid to upper 20's.
Christmas Eve: cloudy with a 40% chance of snow and sleet. Temps steady in the upper 20's and low 30's. Some accumulation is possible.
Christmas Eve night: cloudy and very cold. Flurries possible. Lows in the low to mid 20's. Little to no accumulation.
Christmas Day: cloudy and very cold with highs near freezing. Flurries early. No additional accumulation is expected.
Advisories and Watches can be expected by late today or early Thursday based on additional model data.
Stay tuned
Jeff L
This may be as close as Houston ever gets to a white Christmas!!!!!
Strong arctic front moving into SE TX this morning with temps already down to 46 at Collage Station compared to 65 at Hobby. Large area of moderate snow can be found from Midland to just west of Dallas ahead of a strong short wave trough. Accumulations of 3-5 inches have already occurred over W TX and major interstates are snow packed and slushy from west of Fort Worth to the NM border.
Today:
Strong cold air advection will take over by mid morning with temps falling into the mid 40's by afternoon. Rain will gradually end from the west, although some may mix with ice pellets over our northern counties.
Thursday:
strong short wave in th polar trough to our west will begin isentropic lifting over the area. Lows near freezing will only make highs near 40 under continued strong cold air advection and increasing cloud cover.
Thursday night:
upper level energy forces a coastal trough and low over the NW Gulf. Moisture is brought northward into the frigid air mass over the region with precip. breaking out. Will go with a rain/snow mixture for now, even through the profiles favor all snow or sleet. Meso-scale banding could result in very heavy snow bursts over the region with significant loss in visibility. Temps will fall into the mid and upper 20's allowing whatever falls to accumulate on grassy surfaces. There is still the potential that the coastal trough could form far enough offshore to limit our moisture supply, which would greatly reduce our precip chances.
Christmas Eve:
Strong isentropic lifting continues with frozen precip expected. Highs should remain below freezing. Will go above the guidance high of 29 and forecast temps in the low 30's. I strongly believe temps will remain steady. Precip. sleet/snow mix should gradually end from the WSW by the early afternoon as the short wave pushes across the area.
Christmas Day:
cloudy and continued very cold. Lows in the mid 20's with highs near freezing. Flurries are possible in the morning as the long wave torugh moves across the state.
Persons should take precautions to protect pipes and plants for an extended period of sub-freezing temps. Temps. may fall below freezing late Thursday and not rise above freezing until midday Sunday.
This is a low to moderate confidence forecast:
Today: cloudy and turning much colder. temps. falling into the low to mid 40's by late afternoon. N wind 20-25mph and gusty.
Tonight: cloudy and cold with decreasing clouds late. Lows in the lower 30's. N winds 15-25mph and gusty.
Thursday: increasing clouds and cold. Highs in the low to mid 40's. N winds 10-20mph and gusty.
Thursday night: cloudy with a 30% chance of rain/snow/sleet after midnight. Some accumulation is possible on grassy surfaces. Lows in the mid to upper 20's.
Christmas Eve: cloudy with a 40% chance of snow and sleet. Temps steady in the upper 20's and low 30's. Some accumulation is possible.
Christmas Eve night: cloudy and very cold. Flurries possible. Lows in the low to mid 20's. Little to no accumulation.
Christmas Day: cloudy and very cold with highs near freezing. Flurries early. No additional accumulation is expected.
Advisories and Watches can be expected by late today or early Thursday based on additional model data.
Stay tuned
Jeff L