Bozo
12-21-2004, 04:50 PM
As has been mentioned this is a low confidence forecast and this is why.
New guidance suggest an upper level low will now close off in old Mexico Thursday through Saturday creating favorable conditions for a coastal trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. Models appear to be converging on a wetter pattern with the cold air than previously forecasted. If this comes to be, then QPF and precip. chances are currently on the low side.
850mb temps and critical 540m thickness support a mix of precip. from rain to sleet to snow over SE TX and adjacent coastal bend Thursday evening through Christmas. The hanging back of the upper level energy may continue to event longer than first thought.
Will undercut guidance by 5 degrees on Friday and indicate highs near freezing or the mid 30's at best. Profiles remain at or below freezing most of the day Friday so P-type will either be frozen of freezing on contact (ice).
Due to the fact that we are now within about 48 hours of the start of the event Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories will be considered with the next forecast package (Wed AM).
Still too early to call amounts and P-type, but best locations for accumulations look to be south of I-10 and actually around Matagorda Bay where better moisture will exist.
This remains a very low confidence forecast and additional data and model runs could easily sway toward a non-event.
Jeff Lindner
TICKA-START DANCING!!!
New guidance suggest an upper level low will now close off in old Mexico Thursday through Saturday creating favorable conditions for a coastal trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. Models appear to be converging on a wetter pattern with the cold air than previously forecasted. If this comes to be, then QPF and precip. chances are currently on the low side.
850mb temps and critical 540m thickness support a mix of precip. from rain to sleet to snow over SE TX and adjacent coastal bend Thursday evening through Christmas. The hanging back of the upper level energy may continue to event longer than first thought.
Will undercut guidance by 5 degrees on Friday and indicate highs near freezing or the mid 30's at best. Profiles remain at or below freezing most of the day Friday so P-type will either be frozen of freezing on contact (ice).
Due to the fact that we are now within about 48 hours of the start of the event Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories will be considered with the next forecast package (Wed AM).
Still too early to call amounts and P-type, but best locations for accumulations look to be south of I-10 and actually around Matagorda Bay where better moisture will exist.
This remains a very low confidence forecast and additional data and model runs could easily sway toward a non-event.
Jeff Lindner
TICKA-START DANCING!!!