ticka1
12-20-2004, 07:29 PM
****Significant snowstorm possible Christmas Eve and Day from along the Gulf coast from E TX to the ATL coast.****
****Dramatic accumulations are possible within a strong area of overrunning moisture with significant icing south of the snow area.****
Million dollar question is where does SE TX lie in the whole mess????
Latest guidance is showing even colder conditions for Thursday and Christmas Eve. Highs in the upper 30's may have to be undercut by 3-5 degrees. 850mb temps. are in the -3 to -7 degree range over the area and the GFS profile is frozen from the surface upward. 540m thickness line is along the coast and then pushes offshore early Thursday. We would clearly support snow, but will we have enough moisture to produce anything??
Setup:
Strong low over southern Canada will eject SE over the next 48 hours curving out a deep polar trough over the US. Very cold arctic air will pour southward entering TX late Tuesday and blowing off the coast by midday Wed. Temps will tumble behind the front to the freezing mark by late Wed. over SE TX.
Short wave will ride the trough into the SW US on by early Thursday with moisture increasing over the area. Models prog coastal trough formation over the western Gulf, but differ on the location. This trough along with dynamical lifting from the short wave bring the area a shot of precip. from Thursday afternoon through Friday midday. If the coastal trough forms closer to the area (near the coastal bend) we will have plenty of moisture and Houston as well as most of the area will see accumulating snow. If it forms further to the south near Brownsville moisture will be limited and the chances of winter precip. drop off very quickly. Still to early to get fancy with P-type and any expected accumulations in the forecast, but be aware of the potential and possible travel problems.
Gulf coast east of SE TX:
It appears a significant snowstorm will develop from SW LA to GA with snow all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. If the forecast verifies it will easily be a record breaking event. Interstate closures and airport closures can be expected Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Strong surface winds of 30-40mph along and west of the surface low track could result blowing snow and drifting over parts of the south from E TX to GA.
As with any frozen precip. event in the south the forecast confidence is extremely low. Will await the next model runs and see what they have to say for us here in SE TX.
Jeff L
****Dramatic accumulations are possible within a strong area of overrunning moisture with significant icing south of the snow area.****
Million dollar question is where does SE TX lie in the whole mess????
Latest guidance is showing even colder conditions for Thursday and Christmas Eve. Highs in the upper 30's may have to be undercut by 3-5 degrees. 850mb temps. are in the -3 to -7 degree range over the area and the GFS profile is frozen from the surface upward. 540m thickness line is along the coast and then pushes offshore early Thursday. We would clearly support snow, but will we have enough moisture to produce anything??
Setup:
Strong low over southern Canada will eject SE over the next 48 hours curving out a deep polar trough over the US. Very cold arctic air will pour southward entering TX late Tuesday and blowing off the coast by midday Wed. Temps will tumble behind the front to the freezing mark by late Wed. over SE TX.
Short wave will ride the trough into the SW US on by early Thursday with moisture increasing over the area. Models prog coastal trough formation over the western Gulf, but differ on the location. This trough along with dynamical lifting from the short wave bring the area a shot of precip. from Thursday afternoon through Friday midday. If the coastal trough forms closer to the area (near the coastal bend) we will have plenty of moisture and Houston as well as most of the area will see accumulating snow. If it forms further to the south near Brownsville moisture will be limited and the chances of winter precip. drop off very quickly. Still to early to get fancy with P-type and any expected accumulations in the forecast, but be aware of the potential and possible travel problems.
Gulf coast east of SE TX:
It appears a significant snowstorm will develop from SW LA to GA with snow all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. If the forecast verifies it will easily be a record breaking event. Interstate closures and airport closures can be expected Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Strong surface winds of 30-40mph along and west of the surface low track could result blowing snow and drifting over parts of the south from E TX to GA.
As with any frozen precip. event in the south the forecast confidence is extremely low. Will await the next model runs and see what they have to say for us here in SE TX.
Jeff L