Tropical Storm Bonnie-THREAD CLOSED-GRAPHICS REMOVED

[windy]

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[Coriolis]

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[windy]

This is something that bares watching. I can't wait to get the latest corrd. at 5pm.

[StingRay]

Ok, I REALLY need a puke emoticon right now. WHY is my child going to the Caribbean? Why? Didn't I raise her better than this? What if she can't get blown up in New York, she can get blown away on a stupid BOAT? :eek:


God help me, where's the ice cream? :confused:

One bright note, we might be able to get on the spot hurricane reports... :cool:

[windy]

Stingray is your daughter planning a trip in the caribbean? I'm sure she will be alright if anything it won't be nothing but a tropical storm at the least. Nothing to worry about. Now a hurricane is another story and I think the status may be that after it passes the Islands. So remain calm and just get the latest reports on the storm. Windy

[danielw]

As long as she is going on a cruise ship i don't see any problem. I rode out quite a few tropical storms on a floating oil rig, back in '95. Makes for some interesting weather and trying to sleep.

[danielw]

Conditions at Aug 04, 2004 - 12:00 AM EDTAug 03, 2004 - 11:00 PM
2004.08.04 0400 UTC
Wind from the SE (140 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT)
Visibility 2 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Heavy rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 100%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TBPB 0404300Z 14014KT 4000 +SHRA FEW010CB SCT014 OVC035 25/25 Q1014 CB E-SE AND N

well kinda rocked!

[StingRay]

Yes after her STUPID trip to NY this Friday and Saturday, she flies down to Puerto Rico to board a cruise ship there for 7 days. I showed her all the models, sat pics, etc. yesterday when she was home and she just waved me away. She always thinks I tend to be too cautious anyway.

I do have one reason to applaud her though-she taking Intro to Meteorology this fall. HOORAY-a possible convert!!!!! She'll be way ahead of most of them since she's had to live with me......we stood outside Monday night for 1/2 hour watching a developing storm with incredible lightning. There's hope for her yet!

[ticka1]

The latest model tracks for TD2 - looks like its shifting more to the west - since its not getting stronger and staying weaker. Has to track through the caribbean which is never favorable for development of tropical systems into the GOM perhaps or Florida.

But first lets see if it survives.

Comments welcome.

[StingRay]

Is it being sheared by what I interpret as a dry slot ahead of it or unfavorable upper level winds?

[StingRay]

Dead in the water for all practical purposes:

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS DISCONTINUED AS POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY.

[Coriolis]

TD2 now a wave

[windy]

May regenerate on thursday. A recon is scheduled to investigate the area is necessary. Hope its good news. :)

[windy]

I wonder if recon will find a depression on saturday? it seems conditions could become favorable. :)


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[StingRay]

I hate to be a killjoy but I'd really prefer ALL tropical activity to stay AWAY from the Caribbean until my daughter gets back from her cruise.

She's got a data port in her room so if anything happens I can get ahold of her, and she PROMISED she'd email every day, twice a day so I could know what's happening there.

O/T She made it to NY this afternoon, room is right above Times Square. She says the cab drivers there don't even recognize pedestrians as a life form.... :eek:

[windy]

Hope something comes out of this wave. I would like to see some acitvity then none. The tropics get boring that way. :)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[StingRay]

000 Wtnt33 Knhc 091746 Tcpat3 Bulletin

Tropical Depression Three Special Advisory Number 1
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[ticka1]

Its official folks. Tropical Storm Bonnie forms in the GOM. Winds at 45 mph. At this point and time the forecast is for landfall between Panama City and Penascola.

Everyone in the GOM needs to watch this system for the next few days until landfall does happen.

[windy]

early in the week and look two storms. Now we have something to track. :)

[windy]

by saying something would form early this week would come true. Bonney and soon charley. I should play the lottery. What a good guess.

[longtalltexan79]

TD #3 is looking most impressive today. I wouldn't be surprised to see Charley very soon. Wow just overnight things got cooking. Bonnie in the Gulf and TD #3 making itself known. :eek:

[longtalltexan79]

Models want to make this a Cat 3 cane before it enters the Gulf

*shudders* Last time I was in a Cat 3 was Alicia and I was only 3 so I don't remember much, but I've seen enough of other Cat 3+ storms to know I don't want to be in the path of one. :(

[StingRay]

Lyn, are you and my daughter twins? She was three when Alicia came through as well. In between that and your shared love of CSI, it's SPOOKY!!!

[StingRay]

000 WTNT32 KNHC 100238

TCPAT2

BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[StingRay]

000

WTNT42 KNHC 100242

TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[longtalltexan79]

Lyn, are you and my daughter twins? She was three when Alicia came through as well. In between that and your shared love of CSI, it's SPOOKY!!!

Okay that is weird! :D We were living on the south side...mom says we slept through it, never even lost power, lol. I remember them getting the house ready for it and I helped them even though I'm sure I had no clue as to why we were doing it, haha.

The worst storm my parents were in was Carla. They were in Houston at that time too.

[StingRay]

000

Wtnt32 Knhc 100846

Tcpat2

Bulletin

Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 9

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

4 Am Cdt Tue Aug 10 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[StingRay]

000

Wtnt42 Knhc 100844

Tcdat2 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 9

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Am Edt Tue Aug 10 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[StingRay]

000

Wtnt32 Knhc 101444

Tcpat2

Bulletin

Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 10

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

10 Am Cdt Tue Aug 10 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[StingRay]

000

Wtnt42 Knhc 101437

Tcdat2 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 10

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Tue Aug 10 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[ticka1]

My thoughts and comments on Bonnie today at noon. I'm not totally agreeing or disagreeing with the models forecast - after being burned by Claudette last year - I am reserving my judgement. I think there are too many scenarios that could happen with Bonnie. Just got a call from my husband - he is on 72 hour hurricane alert at the chemical plant he works at in LaPorte. So until she makes landfall where-ever that is everyone on the GOM coastline needs to keep tabs on Bonnie.

[StingRay]

Questions, questions, questions.
1. Is the center further south that NHC says? The discussion plainly states that the recon dropsonde MISSED the center.
2. The dry air that was so distinctive in water vapor sats yesterday has clearly lessened in intensity.
3. Note in the water vapor how dry and cloudless it seems to the north of I guess Huntsville or Crockett maybe? What does that mean.
4. I've read too many conflicting individual NWS office forecasts from Corpus all the way to Miami to put complete faith in anything right now.

I guess I'm just sitting on the fence, confused as usual.

[swmochic]

I'm so glad things have picked up for you guys! You now have something to do instead of climbing the walls!! I hear they are doing a fly-through of Bonnie I think. Am looking forward to everyones opinions about the results!

[StingRay]

000
Wtnt32 Knhc 102040
Tcpat2
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 11
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
4 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 10 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[StingRay]

000
Wtnt22 Knhc 102032
Tcmat2
Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast/advisory Number 11
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022004
2100z Tue Aug 10 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[StingRay]

000
Wtnt42 Knhc 102031
Tcdat2
Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 11
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Pm Edt Tue Aug 10 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[stormy]

so bonnie is weakening, down to 45 from 10:00. so do we think she will be by the time she hits land, or is reforming???

[ticka1]

Wtnt32 Knhc 110831
Tcpat2
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 13
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
4 Am Cdt Wed Aug 11 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[StingRay]

Bless you child for picking up my slack. Back on duty now maam.

000

WTNT32 KNHC 111143

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7

AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[StingRay]

000
Wtnt32 Knhc 112053
Tcpat2
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 15
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
4 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 11 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[StingRay]

000
Wtnt42 Knhc 112042
Tcdat2
Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 15
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Pm Edt Wed Aug 11 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[stormy]

so where in the panhandle do we think she will hit seaside or around that area. i have alot of friends in and around there

[StingRay]

Not sure Stormy, let moi check the models and then throw those in the trash and pick my own place.....

[StingRay]

Stormy-here's some models for you to look at

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/02LMDL01.html
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/02LMDL02.html
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/02LMDL03.html
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/02LMDL04.html

[StingRay]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 120845
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[StingRay]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 120915
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[ticka1]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 121738
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/BONNIE.shtml?

[windy]

Now we have Danielle & TD 5 to contend with which may be a named storm tonight. :chef: