jeffl
12-20-2004, 01:26 PM
Very cold arctic air mass gathering in northern Canada will be on the move by late this evening. Enjoy today and tomorrow because after that it is down hill very quickly. Will also be toying with the idea of winter precip. Thursday and Friday.
Strong warm advection today with gusty SSW winds will bring temps. into the mid 70's and even the upper 70's Tuesday.
Wednesday:
Strong arctic cold front crashes into the state with -45 F temps as its source air. Highs will be in the morning with temps. tumbling during the afternoon toward the low 40's and even upper 30's. Impressive cold air advection will push winds to wind advisory criteria of sustained 30mph with gust over 40. Wind chills head for the teens by late in the day. 850mb temps go below freezing by sunset and the 540 m thickness is over the Gulf by late Wednesday evening. There will be rain along and behind the front, but it should end before temps and the profile drop to freezing.
Thursday:
Models shows the mid and upper level trough hanging back into Mexico and SW TX with an active sub-tropical flow over the area. Arctic air mass will be firmly anchored over the area with highs struggling to get out of the 30's and that may be too warm given the clouds and continued cold air advection.
Thursday night:
Moisture advection takes place into the cold air and a short wave moves across the state. The air column is frozen from the surface upward so anything that falls will likely be frozen. Moisture continues to look limited, but there may be just enough to squeeze out some QPF over the region. Better chances look to be just to our south where the moisture is a little better. We don't dare say snow in S TX as it has not snowed in S TX since the late 1800's, but the models show winter precip there Thursday night and Christmas Eve morning. Will keep the Houston forecast as precip. for now and fine tune P-type with later models runs as well as any accumulation forecast.
Christmas Eve:
Short wave moves east by midday with any precip. ending by noon. Temps will be dependant on cloud cover and if there is any accumulation on the ground over the region. Will likely see highs again in the 30's.
Christmas Day:
Arctic high is displaced eastward by approaching westerlies with a warming trend. Highs should be able to get back into the 50's after morning lows in the mid 20's.
This is an extremely low confidence forecast both with precip. chances, temps, and Precip. type.
Today: sunny and warm with highs in the low 70's. S winds 25-35mph and gusty.
Tuesday: mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70's. S wind 25-30mph and gusty.
Wednesday: cloudy and turning much colder with a 50% chance of rain. Temps. in the mid 60's early falling into the 40's during the day. S winds shifting to the NNW and increasing to near 25-35mph and gusty. Wind chills falling into the teens and 20's.
Wednesday night: cloudy and cold. North winds 20-30mph and gusty. Lows in the upper 20's to near 30.
Thursday: cloudy and cold with highs in the upper 30's to near 40, a slight chance of precipitation late. N winds 20-25mph and gusty.
Thursday night: cloudy and cold with a chance of precipitation. Lows in the mid to upper 20's. North winds 10-15mph.
Christmas Eve: cloudy with a chance of precipitation early. Highs in the mid to upper 30's. North winds 10-15mph.
Christmas Day: mostly sunny with lows in the mid 20's and highs in the mid 50's.
Jeff L
Strong warm advection today with gusty SSW winds will bring temps. into the mid 70's and even the upper 70's Tuesday.
Wednesday:
Strong arctic cold front crashes into the state with -45 F temps as its source air. Highs will be in the morning with temps. tumbling during the afternoon toward the low 40's and even upper 30's. Impressive cold air advection will push winds to wind advisory criteria of sustained 30mph with gust over 40. Wind chills head for the teens by late in the day. 850mb temps go below freezing by sunset and the 540 m thickness is over the Gulf by late Wednesday evening. There will be rain along and behind the front, but it should end before temps and the profile drop to freezing.
Thursday:
Models shows the mid and upper level trough hanging back into Mexico and SW TX with an active sub-tropical flow over the area. Arctic air mass will be firmly anchored over the area with highs struggling to get out of the 30's and that may be too warm given the clouds and continued cold air advection.
Thursday night:
Moisture advection takes place into the cold air and a short wave moves across the state. The air column is frozen from the surface upward so anything that falls will likely be frozen. Moisture continues to look limited, but there may be just enough to squeeze out some QPF over the region. Better chances look to be just to our south where the moisture is a little better. We don't dare say snow in S TX as it has not snowed in S TX since the late 1800's, but the models show winter precip there Thursday night and Christmas Eve morning. Will keep the Houston forecast as precip. for now and fine tune P-type with later models runs as well as any accumulation forecast.
Christmas Eve:
Short wave moves east by midday with any precip. ending by noon. Temps will be dependant on cloud cover and if there is any accumulation on the ground over the region. Will likely see highs again in the 30's.
Christmas Day:
Arctic high is displaced eastward by approaching westerlies with a warming trend. Highs should be able to get back into the 50's after morning lows in the mid 20's.
This is an extremely low confidence forecast both with precip. chances, temps, and Precip. type.
Today: sunny and warm with highs in the low 70's. S winds 25-35mph and gusty.
Tuesday: mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70's. S wind 25-30mph and gusty.
Wednesday: cloudy and turning much colder with a 50% chance of rain. Temps. in the mid 60's early falling into the 40's during the day. S winds shifting to the NNW and increasing to near 25-35mph and gusty. Wind chills falling into the teens and 20's.
Wednesday night: cloudy and cold. North winds 20-30mph and gusty. Lows in the upper 20's to near 30.
Thursday: cloudy and cold with highs in the upper 30's to near 40, a slight chance of precipitation late. N winds 20-25mph and gusty.
Thursday night: cloudy and cold with a chance of precipitation. Lows in the mid to upper 20's. North winds 10-15mph.
Christmas Eve: cloudy with a chance of precipitation early. Highs in the mid to upper 30's. North winds 10-15mph.
Christmas Day: mostly sunny with lows in the mid 20's and highs in the mid 50's.
Jeff L