ticka1
12-18-2004, 04:04 PM
I strongly advise persons leaving the area for the holidays to shut off the main water line to your house and drain you pipes as well as disconnect outside water hoses and sprinkler systems. Based on guidance numbers we may see a long duration freeze from the 23rd through the 26th.
Cold arctic outbreak still on tap for Christmas week with winter precip. possible Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
McFarland upper air block over Canada stretching N into Russia and south deep into the US will deliver the coldest air mass in many years into the US by Tuesday. Radio obs from northern Russia last night indicated -51.5 C at Olenek and -23.3 C at Point Barrow, Alaska. Deep layer ridging along the west coast will shift west while building north and send this air mass south. Arctic bulge will reach the US border late Monday and arrive in TX early Wed.
850mb winds go WSW prior to the arctic blasts arrival on the 22nd so temps will be into the low 70's both Monday and Tuesday.
Wed:
Arctic flood gates are unleashed with the strong front passing Houston around noon. Highs will be in the morning with temps diving in the afternoon. Cold air stratus will develop behind the front as the moisture is squeezed out of the very dry air mass.
Thursday:
Secondary surge arrives with even colder air and bringing the entire air column below freezing. Temps should hover around the freezing mark during the day as clouds and strong cold air advection prevent much recovery.
Christmas Eve & Day:
Arctic air mass is in firm control of the entire US with the 850mb 0C line well in the Gulf and 540m thickness over S TX. WSW to SW winds will begin to bring moisture back into the cold air as a trough drops into the SW. Moisture still appears to be lacking, but with the dynamics of the trough and some sub-tropical influence we MAY be able to squeeze out a little accumulating precip on the 24th and 25th.
NOTE: a look at climate records shows that snow has never fallen on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day in Houston. This may be as close as we ever get to the "magical" White Christmas. Last snow at KIAH was 1.7 inches on Dec 22nd 1989 with an all time record low of 7 on the 24th 1989.
JEFF ALSO INCLUDED SOME MAPS AND GRAPHICS - PLEASE CHECK BACK LATER AND i WILL UPLOAD AND POST THEM.
Cold arctic outbreak still on tap for Christmas week with winter precip. possible Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
McFarland upper air block over Canada stretching N into Russia and south deep into the US will deliver the coldest air mass in many years into the US by Tuesday. Radio obs from northern Russia last night indicated -51.5 C at Olenek and -23.3 C at Point Barrow, Alaska. Deep layer ridging along the west coast will shift west while building north and send this air mass south. Arctic bulge will reach the US border late Monday and arrive in TX early Wed.
850mb winds go WSW prior to the arctic blasts arrival on the 22nd so temps will be into the low 70's both Monday and Tuesday.
Wed:
Arctic flood gates are unleashed with the strong front passing Houston around noon. Highs will be in the morning with temps diving in the afternoon. Cold air stratus will develop behind the front as the moisture is squeezed out of the very dry air mass.
Thursday:
Secondary surge arrives with even colder air and bringing the entire air column below freezing. Temps should hover around the freezing mark during the day as clouds and strong cold air advection prevent much recovery.
Christmas Eve & Day:
Arctic air mass is in firm control of the entire US with the 850mb 0C line well in the Gulf and 540m thickness over S TX. WSW to SW winds will begin to bring moisture back into the cold air as a trough drops into the SW. Moisture still appears to be lacking, but with the dynamics of the trough and some sub-tropical influence we MAY be able to squeeze out a little accumulating precip on the 24th and 25th.
NOTE: a look at climate records shows that snow has never fallen on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day in Houston. This may be as close as we ever get to the "magical" White Christmas. Last snow at KIAH was 1.7 inches on Dec 22nd 1989 with an all time record low of 7 on the 24th 1989.
JEFF ALSO INCLUDED SOME MAPS AND GRAPHICS - PLEASE CHECK BACK LATER AND i WILL UPLOAD AND POST THEM.