ticka1
12-09-2004, 06:16 PM
Mild weather will continue for a couple more days before large scale
upper air changes begin to take place over the US.
A dry front will pass through the area Friday and cool us down for the
weekend the Gulf of Mexico will remain shut down and their will be no
misture return for rain chances.
Strong Canadian front heads south over the weekend and arrives in TX
early next week. The GFS is underplaying the amount of cooling with
this front and it is very likely strong cold air advection will keep
temps. on the chilly side through Wed.
Upper air pattern begins to lock into a large western US ridge and
deep eastern US trough. A strong polar vortex will develop over NE
Canada and Greenland with massive ridging over Alaska into Siberia.
The GFS and ensemble members show surface pressures near 1055mb over
NW Canada by next weekend. The polar vortex over NE Canada will
retrograde WSW toward Hudson Bay unleashing arctic air into the US. It
remains in question to if this pattern fully locks into place or
remains progressive and if the arctic event is short lived or long
lasting.
NOTE: The GFS 372 hour forecast which is not reliable at all at those
times, is forecasting widespread snowfall over TX the week of
Christmas. I have attched the 372 hour GFS snow cover map for the 22nd
so you can see what it looks like on the model (probably the closet we
will get to seeing 3-6 inches of snow accumulation here).
upper air changes begin to take place over the US.
A dry front will pass through the area Friday and cool us down for the
weekend the Gulf of Mexico will remain shut down and their will be no
misture return for rain chances.
Strong Canadian front heads south over the weekend and arrives in TX
early next week. The GFS is underplaying the amount of cooling with
this front and it is very likely strong cold air advection will keep
temps. on the chilly side through Wed.
Upper air pattern begins to lock into a large western US ridge and
deep eastern US trough. A strong polar vortex will develop over NE
Canada and Greenland with massive ridging over Alaska into Siberia.
The GFS and ensemble members show surface pressures near 1055mb over
NW Canada by next weekend. The polar vortex over NE Canada will
retrograde WSW toward Hudson Bay unleashing arctic air into the US. It
remains in question to if this pattern fully locks into place or
remains progressive and if the arctic event is short lived or long
lasting.
NOTE: The GFS 372 hour forecast which is not reliable at all at those
times, is forecasting widespread snowfall over TX the week of
Christmas. I have attched the 372 hour GFS snow cover map for the 22nd
so you can see what it looks like on the model (probably the closet we
will get to seeing 3-6 inches of snow accumulation here).