donsutherland1
12-07-2004, 06:17 PM
The November PDO Index came in at –0.63. It now appears increasingly likely that Winter 2004-05 could be the first winter since the dreadful Winter 2001-02 to see the PDO average < 0 during the December-March period.
Since 1950-51 when regular monthly recordkeeping for the PDO began, there have been six seasons in which the PDO dropped below zero beginning in October and then continued to drop farther during November: 1963, 1965, 1968, 1971, 1989, 1990. All six seasons saw the December-March PDO average < 0:
1963-64: -0.54
1965-66: -0.52
1968-69: -1.00
1971-72: -1.95
1989-90: -0.45
1990-91: -1.55
Assuming that Winter 2004-05 will have a negative PDO (which is different from my mid-October assumption), a number of scenarios can help shed some light on what might lie ahead for select cities.
First, for perspective, the following are the 1950-51 through 2003-04 average seasonal snowfall totals for select cites:
Boston: 42.6”
Buffalo: 95.9”
Burlington: 81.0”
Chicago: 41.4”
New York City: 24.4”
Philadelphia: 21.5”
Pittsburgh: 43.6”
St. Louis: 19.6”
Washington, DC: 16.6”
In all seasons when the PDO < 0 during the December-March period, the average seasonal snowfall figures for those cities came to:
Boston: 36.9”
Buffalo: 85.9”
Burlington: 77.8”
Chicago: 42.0”
New York City: 19.7”
Philadelphia: 18.4”
Pittsburgh: 39.4”
St. Louis: 16.8”
Washington, DC: 14.8”
It should be noted that the increasing likelihood of a negative PDO also suggests that the season will see the PNA average < 0 during the December-March period (another change from what I had earlier anticipated). In 23/29 (79%) of seasons when the PDO < 0, the PNA also averaged < 0.
The following are average seasonal snowfall figures for select scenarios when the PDO averages < 0:
PNA Averages < 0:
Boston: 38.1”
Buffalo: 87.2”
Burlington: 79.7”
Chicago: 44.1”
New York City: 20.9”
Philadelphia: 19.2”
Pittsburgh: 40.0”
St. Louis: 17.0”
Washington, DC: 14.8”
PNA Averages > 0:
Boston: 32.7”
Buffalo: 81.0”
Burlington: 70.5”
Chicago: 33.9”
New York City: 14.8”
Philadelphia: 15.4”
Pittsburgh: 37.0”
St. Louis: 14.2”
Washington, DC: 14.7”
QBO Average Ranges from –6.00 to +6.00 during December-March:
Boston: 32.9”
Buffalo: 85.3”
Burlington: 70.1”
Chicago: 43.4”
New York City: 18.1”
Philadelphia: 18.3”
Pittsburgh: 36.1”
St. Louis: 19.3”
Washington, DC: 14.0”
MEI Average Ranges from +0.00 to +0.99 during December-March:
Boston: 37.0”
Buffalo: 78.4”
Burlington: 72.5”
Chicago: 44.7”
New York City: 24.2”
Philadelphia: 23.0”
Pittsburgh: 34.5”
St. Louis: 17.8”
Washington, DC: 17.5”
NAO Averages < 0:
Boston: 43.1”
Buffalo: 87.2”
Burlington: 83.4”
Chicago: 44.0”
New York City: 22.2”
Philadelphia: 22.1”
Pittsburgh: 48.9”
St. Louis: 18.8”
Washington, DC: 18.2”
NAO Averages > 0:
Boston: 32.0”
Buffalo: 84.9”
Burlington: 73.2”
Chicago: 40.3”
New York City: 17.6”
Philadelphia: 15.4”
Pittsburgh: 31.7”
St. Louis: 15.1”
Washington, DC: 12.1”
Finally, the following are three combinations that are more likely than not to predominate during the 2004-05 season:
MEI Averages +0.00 to +0.99, ENSO Region 1+2 Averages < 25°C, and ENSO Region 3.4 Averages 27°C or Above:
Boston: 41.1”
Buffalo: 64.5”
Burlington: 49.5”
Chicago: 36.0”
New York City: 34.8”
Philadelphia: 23.8”
Pittsburgh: 39.9”
St. Louis: 24.2”
Washington, DC: 20.9”
QBO Average from –6.00 to +6.00 and MEI Averages +0.00 to +0.99:
Boston: 36.0”
Buffalo: 78.7”
Burlington: 70.4”
Chicago: 47.9”
New York City: 26.3”
Philadelphia: 28.1”
Pittsburgh: 38.6”
St. Louis: 17.6”
Washington, DC: 24.4”
NAO Averages < 0 and MEI Averages +0.00 to +0.99:
Boston: 48.1”
Buffalo: 82.4”
Burlington: 79.0”
Chicago: 51.4”
New York City: 34.8”
Philadelphia: 32.3”
Pittsburgh: 42.6”
St. Louis: 23.4”
Washington, DC: 26.8”
Finally, for those who are interested, the snowiest negative PDO season for each of the select cities was:
Boston: 1963-64: 63.0”
Buffalo: 2001-02: 132.4”
Burlington: 1970-71: 145.4”
Chicago: 1978-79: 89.7”
New York City: 1966-67: 51.5”
Philadelphia: 1966-67: 44.3”
Pittsburgh: 1950-51: 82.0”
St. Louis: 1973-74: 42.4”
Washington, DC: 1978-79: 37.7”
Since 1950-51 when regular monthly recordkeeping for the PDO began, there have been six seasons in which the PDO dropped below zero beginning in October and then continued to drop farther during November: 1963, 1965, 1968, 1971, 1989, 1990. All six seasons saw the December-March PDO average < 0:
1963-64: -0.54
1965-66: -0.52
1968-69: -1.00
1971-72: -1.95
1989-90: -0.45
1990-91: -1.55
Assuming that Winter 2004-05 will have a negative PDO (which is different from my mid-October assumption), a number of scenarios can help shed some light on what might lie ahead for select cities.
First, for perspective, the following are the 1950-51 through 2003-04 average seasonal snowfall totals for select cites:
Boston: 42.6”
Buffalo: 95.9”
Burlington: 81.0”
Chicago: 41.4”
New York City: 24.4”
Philadelphia: 21.5”
Pittsburgh: 43.6”
St. Louis: 19.6”
Washington, DC: 16.6”
In all seasons when the PDO < 0 during the December-March period, the average seasonal snowfall figures for those cities came to:
Boston: 36.9”
Buffalo: 85.9”
Burlington: 77.8”
Chicago: 42.0”
New York City: 19.7”
Philadelphia: 18.4”
Pittsburgh: 39.4”
St. Louis: 16.8”
Washington, DC: 14.8”
It should be noted that the increasing likelihood of a negative PDO also suggests that the season will see the PNA average < 0 during the December-March period (another change from what I had earlier anticipated). In 23/29 (79%) of seasons when the PDO < 0, the PNA also averaged < 0.
The following are average seasonal snowfall figures for select scenarios when the PDO averages < 0:
PNA Averages < 0:
Boston: 38.1”
Buffalo: 87.2”
Burlington: 79.7”
Chicago: 44.1”
New York City: 20.9”
Philadelphia: 19.2”
Pittsburgh: 40.0”
St. Louis: 17.0”
Washington, DC: 14.8”
PNA Averages > 0:
Boston: 32.7”
Buffalo: 81.0”
Burlington: 70.5”
Chicago: 33.9”
New York City: 14.8”
Philadelphia: 15.4”
Pittsburgh: 37.0”
St. Louis: 14.2”
Washington, DC: 14.7”
QBO Average Ranges from –6.00 to +6.00 during December-March:
Boston: 32.9”
Buffalo: 85.3”
Burlington: 70.1”
Chicago: 43.4”
New York City: 18.1”
Philadelphia: 18.3”
Pittsburgh: 36.1”
St. Louis: 19.3”
Washington, DC: 14.0”
MEI Average Ranges from +0.00 to +0.99 during December-March:
Boston: 37.0”
Buffalo: 78.4”
Burlington: 72.5”
Chicago: 44.7”
New York City: 24.2”
Philadelphia: 23.0”
Pittsburgh: 34.5”
St. Louis: 17.8”
Washington, DC: 17.5”
NAO Averages < 0:
Boston: 43.1”
Buffalo: 87.2”
Burlington: 83.4”
Chicago: 44.0”
New York City: 22.2”
Philadelphia: 22.1”
Pittsburgh: 48.9”
St. Louis: 18.8”
Washington, DC: 18.2”
NAO Averages > 0:
Boston: 32.0”
Buffalo: 84.9”
Burlington: 73.2”
Chicago: 40.3”
New York City: 17.6”
Philadelphia: 15.4”
Pittsburgh: 31.7”
St. Louis: 15.1”
Washington, DC: 12.1”
Finally, the following are three combinations that are more likely than not to predominate during the 2004-05 season:
MEI Averages +0.00 to +0.99, ENSO Region 1+2 Averages < 25°C, and ENSO Region 3.4 Averages 27°C or Above:
Boston: 41.1”
Buffalo: 64.5”
Burlington: 49.5”
Chicago: 36.0”
New York City: 34.8”
Philadelphia: 23.8”
Pittsburgh: 39.9”
St. Louis: 24.2”
Washington, DC: 20.9”
QBO Average from –6.00 to +6.00 and MEI Averages +0.00 to +0.99:
Boston: 36.0”
Buffalo: 78.7”
Burlington: 70.4”
Chicago: 47.9”
New York City: 26.3”
Philadelphia: 28.1”
Pittsburgh: 38.6”
St. Louis: 17.6”
Washington, DC: 24.4”
NAO Averages < 0 and MEI Averages +0.00 to +0.99:
Boston: 48.1”
Buffalo: 82.4”
Burlington: 79.0”
Chicago: 51.4”
New York City: 34.8”
Philadelphia: 32.3”
Pittsburgh: 42.6”
St. Louis: 23.4”
Washington, DC: 26.8”
Finally, for those who are interested, the snowiest negative PDO season for each of the select cities was:
Boston: 1963-64: 63.0”
Buffalo: 2001-02: 132.4”
Burlington: 1970-71: 145.4”
Chicago: 1978-79: 89.7”
New York City: 1966-67: 51.5”
Philadelphia: 1966-67: 44.3”
Pittsburgh: 1950-51: 82.0”
St. Louis: 1973-74: 42.4”
Washington, DC: 1978-79: 37.7”