ticka1
12-03-2004, 12:35 PM
Very active sub-tropical flow that has been with us now for over a
month will bring us another storm system this weekend.
Current Analysis:
Warm front and coastal trough is developing along the lower TX coast
and then ENE to off the LA coast. 850mb to 700mb winds are slowly
shifting to the south and starting to overide the cool dome at the
surface. Forecast models show decent isentropic lifting by this
afternoon with a deep saturated layer. I think this will be enough for
a thick cloud deck, but the low levels remain a little dry for
rainfall.
Tonight into Saturday:
Strong warm advection, coastal low, and potent short wave will greatly
enhance the overrunning process late tonight into Saturday with
widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms developing. Isentropic
surfaces are saturated with mean RH of 90% or greater through the
period. PWS rise to 1.5 inches and SE TX goes into the left entrance
region of the sub-tropical jet with favorable dynamics overhead.
Sunday:
Warm front heads northward but may not make it through the area. Lead
short wave moves to the NE, with additional energy approaching in the
sub-tropical flow. However this energy is hard to time and I suspect
there will be a break Sunday morning before more development Sunday
afternoon.
Monday:
Dryline moves through ending the threat for rainfall for 2 days. Next
system due in next Wed. and Thurs. as the very active sub-tropical
flow continues.
ENSO:
I am not one to strongly associate El Nino with US weather patterns,
as the media as done this too much in recent years. However, you
cannot deny the connection between the current weak ENSO and the
extremely wet weather we have been having. Yes, anybody can pick up 25
inches of rain over 4 days like Wharton County did, but the constant
sub-tropical flow and active sub-tropical jet for over a month now, is
an indication that something is different in the central Pacific. The
ENSO teleconnection for TX is for above normal rainfall and cooler
than normal temps. and this has verified very well for the month of
Nov. ENSO indices indicate a .5 degree warm anomaly over the central
Pacific south of Hawaii, and long term climate progs show this ENSO
event continuing well into the Spring of 2005.
NOTE:
Lake releases at Lake Waco, Lake Limestone, and Lake Proctor will be
producing a secondary rise on the Brazos river starting today and
continuing through the weekend. The lower Brazos River Authority will
hold the flow above bankfull at all locations with the exception of
Rosharon which will be near flood stage. Rainfall this weekend may
result in additional rises along area rivers that are in recession.
Lake capacities in NC and C TX remain elevated from recent rains and
given the current wet pattern increased discharges are likley over the
next week.
Jeff Lindner
month will bring us another storm system this weekend.
Current Analysis:
Warm front and coastal trough is developing along the lower TX coast
and then ENE to off the LA coast. 850mb to 700mb winds are slowly
shifting to the south and starting to overide the cool dome at the
surface. Forecast models show decent isentropic lifting by this
afternoon with a deep saturated layer. I think this will be enough for
a thick cloud deck, but the low levels remain a little dry for
rainfall.
Tonight into Saturday:
Strong warm advection, coastal low, and potent short wave will greatly
enhance the overrunning process late tonight into Saturday with
widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms developing. Isentropic
surfaces are saturated with mean RH of 90% or greater through the
period. PWS rise to 1.5 inches and SE TX goes into the left entrance
region of the sub-tropical jet with favorable dynamics overhead.
Sunday:
Warm front heads northward but may not make it through the area. Lead
short wave moves to the NE, with additional energy approaching in the
sub-tropical flow. However this energy is hard to time and I suspect
there will be a break Sunday morning before more development Sunday
afternoon.
Monday:
Dryline moves through ending the threat for rainfall for 2 days. Next
system due in next Wed. and Thurs. as the very active sub-tropical
flow continues.
ENSO:
I am not one to strongly associate El Nino with US weather patterns,
as the media as done this too much in recent years. However, you
cannot deny the connection between the current weak ENSO and the
extremely wet weather we have been having. Yes, anybody can pick up 25
inches of rain over 4 days like Wharton County did, but the constant
sub-tropical flow and active sub-tropical jet for over a month now, is
an indication that something is different in the central Pacific. The
ENSO teleconnection for TX is for above normal rainfall and cooler
than normal temps. and this has verified very well for the month of
Nov. ENSO indices indicate a .5 degree warm anomaly over the central
Pacific south of Hawaii, and long term climate progs show this ENSO
event continuing well into the Spring of 2005.
NOTE:
Lake releases at Lake Waco, Lake Limestone, and Lake Proctor will be
producing a secondary rise on the Brazos river starting today and
continuing through the weekend. The lower Brazos River Authority will
hold the flow above bankfull at all locations with the exception of
Rosharon which will be near flood stage. Rainfall this weekend may
result in additional rises along area rivers that are in recession.
Lake capacities in NC and C TX remain elevated from recent rains and
given the current wet pattern increased discharges are likley over the
next week.
Jeff Lindner