donsutherland1
12-02-2004, 06:04 PM
For the second consecutive month, the solar flux increased. In November, it stood at 1137. Two months earlier, it had fallen to 1030. It still remains uncertain whether the solar flux is headed for another secondary peak in its longer-term decline toward a solar minimum.
However, I believe that the latest data increases confidence that it will average somewhere around 1000 +/- 100 for the winter.
For what it is worth, if one takes a solar flux of between 850 and 1150 in winters where the MEI averaged +0.00 to +0.99 (likely scenarios for Winter 2004-05), one finds the following in terms of snowfall for select cities:
Boston: 57.0"
Buffalo: 88.3"
Chicago: 43.9"
New York City: 33.7"
Washington, DC: 15.2"
If one excludes winters where ENSO Region 1+2 had an average temperature of 25°C or above (which is possible this winter), the averages come to the following:
Boston: 62.8"
Buffalo: 90.0"
Chicago: 36.4"
New York City: 38.4"
Washington, DC: 16.9"
However, I believe that the latest data increases confidence that it will average somewhere around 1000 +/- 100 for the winter.
For what it is worth, if one takes a solar flux of between 850 and 1150 in winters where the MEI averaged +0.00 to +0.99 (likely scenarios for Winter 2004-05), one finds the following in terms of snowfall for select cities:
Boston: 57.0"
Buffalo: 88.3"
Chicago: 43.9"
New York City: 33.7"
Washington, DC: 15.2"
If one excludes winters where ENSO Region 1+2 had an average temperature of 25°C or above (which is possible this winter), the averages come to the following:
Boston: 62.8"
Buffalo: 90.0"
Chicago: 36.4"
New York City: 38.4"
Washington, DC: 16.9"