Gulf of Mexico

[ticka1]

Will this be the tropical hot spot for the next few days since the Altantic has calmed down some? There is a frontal boundary that pasted through the Gulf Coast states and is currently in the GOM. Will it transform itself into a Tropical system. Looking at sats - a cloud cluster is becoming apparent below Pensacola Florida - will it develp into anything - depends if it gets a LLC and tropical characterstics.

Well at least its something to talk about until we get TD3!

[windy]

the NHC I'm sure will tell about it. I wonder what the 5:30pm outlook will say.

[galvbay]

Hey Ticka...does this one have 'our name' on it? galvbay

We go back to work tomorrow...perfect timing, eh (ala-alicia)?

[Coriolis]

Here is a link for Radar in Cancun:
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html

[ticka1]

Hey Ticka...does this one have 'our name' on it? galvbay

We go back to work tomorrow...perfect timing, eh (ala-alicia)?
Galvbay -= check your PM's please.

[ticka1]

That system is looking really good this evening - read the 8 p.m. advisory. I think if this system can maintain its convection and structure over night - we might have a player in the GOM. I have seen several model runs - but I don't think they are legit just because the system hasn't developed and the models have nothing to initalize with.....

[ticka1]

http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm

Cancun radar

[ticka1]

http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm

Cancun radar
Wow I think my eyes are deceiving me because I think that I see a slight rotation on that radar picture.

Comments and etc welcome.....

[ticka1]

Sunday Night 10:30 p.m. TWO

91L could be a tropical system again according to the NHC. Read what they have to say.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090221
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CONSIST OF AN AREA OF
CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TWO TO THREE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 25 MPH. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ON MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[longtalltexan79]

Well I am certaintly going to keep an eye on it. I was watching KHOU tonight and they showed the Cancun radar and it has definiatly gotten better organized on radar...Being smack dab in the between Houston and Victoria my eyes will be glued to it...

[ticka1]

I am with you longtalltexan - I live in Baytown. When there is something in the GOM - never take your eye off of it until it makes landfall. Yes I am up - can't sleep - my teeth are hurting so I got to read the last advisory - which I posted here.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON 09 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1013 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROF THAT EXTENDS
FROM 20N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 25N84W. THIS SYSTEM
IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. TWO AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. RADAR IMAGES FROM CANCUN MEXICO CONFIRM THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH ROTATION NOTED IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS IT
ENTERS THE SE GULF TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 84W-88W.

[longtalltexan79]

Seems to me all the ingredients are right for this thing to develop further. The radar looks very impressive in Cancun. I watched Claudette last year and we got about 75mph winds here, and no electricity for a day. When anything comes into the Gulf I've usually got the Weather Channel on and I check all the websites regularly throughout the day.

Looks like it's going to be a interesting week for us Gulf coasters!

[ticka1]

Yep Stingray I noticed those aspects this morning. Either Bonnie is going to be heading towards Mexico and the dry air or be pulled up and across the florida panhandle. We will just have to wait and see how the system unfolds.

[StingRay]

Ticka, from NWS this morning:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CDT MON AUG 9 2004

BELIEVE SEA BREEZE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO A GREATER EXTENT ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A LITTLER FARTHER NORTH INLAND. GFS INDICATE MOISTURE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH TO THE COAST AND NORTHWEST GULF WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CWFA BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE EXPECT FRONT TO REACH COAST EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL DROP DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S OVER NORTHEAST ZONES BY FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS END OF THE WEEK AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND MAY GET CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS IF MODELS ARE CORRECT.
INTERESTINGLY...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL APPEARS TO BE FLARING UP. IF NEEDED...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MAY INVESTIGATE THIS AFTERNOON.



How many times have I heard that a tropical disturbance pulls TOWARDS a low and AWAY from a high? Given it's position right now, would there be a meeting of the minds so to speak with the frontal passage? Is it possible I could ask any more questions? I gotta go check some more maps. It's too early for my feeble mind.

[ticka1]

Thanks for the post. Here is a satellite pic I have been looking at this morning.

[StingRay]

From that loop I see a distinct WWNW motion. Now, given that other water vapor pic, it looks to be trying to scoot south of the inflow of dry air. I also noticed a high parked off the florida coast pushing anything far enough north in the gulf, onshore. Questions remain though. Is that swath of dry air progged to lessen in intensity, where is that high suppose to go, where is Coriolis when we need him to give us a truly educated view of all these events, and why must my cats insist on playing chase at 2:00 AM? Perhaps I should send them over to you since you're awake around then!!!

[ticka1]

000
Whxx01 Kwbc 091251
Chghur

Disclaimer...numerical Models Are Subject To Large Errors.
Please Refer To Tpc/nhc Official Forecasts For Tropical Cyclones.

.....the Following Is A Test Message.....

National Hurricane Center North Atlantic Objective Aids For

Tropical Depression Invest (al912004) On 20040809 1200 Utc

...00 Hrs... ...12 Hrs... ...24 Hrs... ...36 Hrs...
040809 1200 040810 0000 040810 1200 040811 0000

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bamd 22.2n 87.6w 22.7n 89.6w 23.2n 91.4w 23.7n 92.7w
Bamm 22.2n 87.6w 23.1n 89.5w 23.8n 90.8w 24.5n 91.7w
A98e 22.2n 87.6w 23.1n 89.7w 24.2n 91.5w 25.3n 92.6w
Lbar 22.2n 87.6w 23.1n 89.8w 24.5n 91.4w 25.9n 92.3w
Ship 25kts 29kts 35kts 42kts
Dshp 25kts 29kts 35kts 42kts

...48 Hrs... ...72 Hrs... ...96 Hrs... ..120 Hrs...
040811 1200 040812 1200 040813 1200 040814 1200

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon
Bamd 24.1n 93.3w 24.8n 92.4w 26.1n 89.0w 29.4n 83.7w
Bamm 25.1n 92.0w 26.0n 90.2w 27.5n 86.6w 30.9n 82.2w
A98e 26.0n 93.0w 28.4n 90.9w 31.7n 85.0w 39.7n 75.0w
Lbar 27.2n 92.0w 30.9n 86.9w 37.7n 75.1w 43.3n 64.5w
Ship 49kts 60kts 63kts 58kts
Dshp 49kts 60kts 63kts 41kts

...initial Conditions...
Latcur = 22.2n Loncur = 87.6w Dircur = 295deg Spdcur = 11kt
Latm12 = 21.5n Lonm12 = 85.5w Dirm12 = 298deg Spdm12 = 12kt
Latm24 = 20.3n Lonm24 = 83.5w
Wndcur = 25kt Rmaxwd = 30nm Wndm12 = 25kt
Cenprs = 1011mb Outprs = 1013mb Outrad = 60nm Sdepth = M
Rd34ne = 0nm Rd34se = 0nm Rd34sw = 0nm Rd34nw = 0nm

.....the Above Has Been A Test Message.....

[windy]

Some posters have already named it Bonney! I guess we will see for sure won't we. :)

[ticka1]

I don't think its Bonnie yet Windy. It might be a TD but that's all for right now.

[StingRay]

May be a stupid question, but do we have graphical plots on the invest?

[StingRay]

THEY'VE MOVED THE FLOATER!!!!!

http://us.f1.yahoofs.com/bc/14351a9d/bc/smilies/action+smiley.gif?BCvy4FBBRaeFH_xi

[StingRay]

That front is gonna pick it up it looks like from the models.

[windy]

Just like I said in my post that something would develop early next week which is this week and look its monday and we have a TD3.

[ticka1]

Windy - your crystal ball is working this year. Now tell us where exTD2 and TD3 will be making landfall!!!!

[windy]

Double trouble Bonney & Charley is headed to florida then making their way up my alley with heavy rain and wind and that's all we need seeing the ground is already saturated. We may see something like last year with Isabele. Down trees being uprooted and power lines and telephone poles knocked down. It looked like a war zone last year.

[swmochic]

Best of luck to you windy!! Be safe!

[windy]

Bonnie I'm not too concerned with its charley that I seem to question. :)