ticka1
11-12-2004, 07:01 AM
Hope everybody enjoyed the sun yesterday you may not see it again
until after Thanksgiving.
Pattern shift underway this morning as the US storm track builds into
the SW US and then ejects across the southern US.
Low level stratus deck spreading SSW across the area this morning with
the leading edge rough from College Station to Pearland to Freeport. S
and W of this line skies are clear while N and E skies are cloudy.
Cloud deck will cover most of the area by mid morning and it may be
hard to reach the forecast highs in the low 60's if the clouds hold.
Weekend:
Coastal troughing sets up by late tonight from Matagorda Bay south to
Brownsville. Strong upglide and isentropic ascent begins by early
Saturday morning over the coastal bend. Condensation pressure deficits
are a little high to begin with, but then fall as a 30kt low level jet
transports moisture northward over the cold air dome. Widespread rain
will break out early Saturday over S and C TX. There is some question
as to if a small dry air layer near the surface will keep the rain
from reaching the ground. I think this is possible early, but the
lifting along the isotropes will likely saturate the air mass by
Saturday evening. Guidance is just too warm with temps for highs over
the weekend given the clouds and rain. I do not think highs will get
much above 60 if even that warm.
Next Week:
Surface cold dome is eroded by strong pressure falls over SW TX ahead
of a potent upper trough. Surface warm front will move northward
Monday and transitions the stratiform rain into convective
thunderstorms. The entire area should be warm sectored by late Monday
with the atmosphere becoming increasingly unstable. Thunderstorms will
be possible at any time from late Monday through Wednesday night as
the upper trough moves across. Due to the slow motion and strong
dynamics with this system somebody is going to get a lot of rain.
In addition to the increasing rain chances, a 1043mb high will build
into the Midwest and increase the pressure gradient along the northern
Gulf by early next week. Ekman transports will result in tidal piling
along the coast and seas will approach 7-8 feet by early next week. If
winds stay up and shift to the SE after the warm front passes there
could be some minor coastal flooding especially around Matagorda Bay
next week.
Extended:
After the system depart Thursday yet ANOTHER upper low drops into the
SW US by next Friday. This system should move across next weekend with
another shot at heavy rainfall. The next system drops into the SW by
next Sunday 21st and assults the area right before Thanksgiving. As I
stated the pattern has changed and it appears a relentless parade of
storms will affect the area over the next 2 weeks.
Jeff Lindner
until after Thanksgiving.
Pattern shift underway this morning as the US storm track builds into
the SW US and then ejects across the southern US.
Low level stratus deck spreading SSW across the area this morning with
the leading edge rough from College Station to Pearland to Freeport. S
and W of this line skies are clear while N and E skies are cloudy.
Cloud deck will cover most of the area by mid morning and it may be
hard to reach the forecast highs in the low 60's if the clouds hold.
Weekend:
Coastal troughing sets up by late tonight from Matagorda Bay south to
Brownsville. Strong upglide and isentropic ascent begins by early
Saturday morning over the coastal bend. Condensation pressure deficits
are a little high to begin with, but then fall as a 30kt low level jet
transports moisture northward over the cold air dome. Widespread rain
will break out early Saturday over S and C TX. There is some question
as to if a small dry air layer near the surface will keep the rain
from reaching the ground. I think this is possible early, but the
lifting along the isotropes will likely saturate the air mass by
Saturday evening. Guidance is just too warm with temps for highs over
the weekend given the clouds and rain. I do not think highs will get
much above 60 if even that warm.
Next Week:
Surface cold dome is eroded by strong pressure falls over SW TX ahead
of a potent upper trough. Surface warm front will move northward
Monday and transitions the stratiform rain into convective
thunderstorms. The entire area should be warm sectored by late Monday
with the atmosphere becoming increasingly unstable. Thunderstorms will
be possible at any time from late Monday through Wednesday night as
the upper trough moves across. Due to the slow motion and strong
dynamics with this system somebody is going to get a lot of rain.
In addition to the increasing rain chances, a 1043mb high will build
into the Midwest and increase the pressure gradient along the northern
Gulf by early next week. Ekman transports will result in tidal piling
along the coast and seas will approach 7-8 feet by early next week. If
winds stay up and shift to the SE after the warm front passes there
could be some minor coastal flooding especially around Matagorda Bay
next week.
Extended:
After the system depart Thursday yet ANOTHER upper low drops into the
SW US by next Friday. This system should move across next weekend with
another shot at heavy rainfall. The next system drops into the SW by
next Sunday 21st and assults the area right before Thanksgiving. As I
stated the pattern has changed and it appears a relentless parade of
storms will affect the area over the next 2 weeks.
Jeff Lindner