Latest Update from JeffL 11/8/04

[ticka1]

Hope everybody enjoyed Fall over the last week because winter is on
the way.

Over the next 48 hours low level moisture will continue to increase
ahead of a storm system over the SW US. This system will weaken and
eject NE into the central plains Wed. into Thurs. Most of the energy
will be north of our area, but there may be enough moisture for a
chance of showers late Wed. and early Thurs.

A powerful front moves down the front range of the Rockies by Tuesday
and into SE TX by early Thurs. Current temps. are running near -20F
over eastern Alaska and western Canada and the strong surface ridge
will tap some of this cold air and send it south. Temps. will tumble a
good 20 degrees with the frontal passage and strong cold air advection
will set in during the day Thurs into Friday. Daytime highs will only
reach the mid to upper 50's Friday into the weekend.

We may see some clearing behind the front late Friday into early
Saturday allowing a for a cold night Friday night. Forecast low in the
upper 30's and low 40's will be possible if skies clear and the winds
relax. The clearing will be short as strong SW flow begins to overrun
the cold air dome at the surface by late Saturday. Another upper low
drops into the SW and heads for TX. Factors are in place for a winter
storm over much of the southern plains late this weekend into early
next week. This includes snow and sleet along the northern edge of the
system and heavy rains along the TX coast. Strong NE surface winds and
cold air advection will keep the cold air locked in place with clouds
and rain through early next week.

Looking well into the extended: possible arctic intrusion deep into
the US during the week of Thanksgiving. GFS is forecasting very cold
air to spill southward along with signifcant winter weather over the
plains starting on the 21st and continuing into the 26th. We shall see.

Foreast:

Today: mostly sunny with high clouds. Highs in the mid 70's. Light
south wind.

Tonight: mostly clear with fog developing late. Lows in the lower 50's.

Tuesday: partly cloudy with highs in the mid 70's. South winds 5-10mph

Wednesday: increasing clouds with a 30% chance of showers late. Highs
in the mid 70's and lows in the upper 50's.

Thursday: cloudy and turning colder with a 30% chance of light rain.
Highs near 65 early then falling into the 50's during the afternoon.
Windy with north winds increasing 20-30mph and gusty.

Friday: mostly cloudy, cool, and breezy. Highs in the mid 50's and
lows in the lower 40's.

Saturday: increasing clouds and cool. Highs in the mid 50's and lows
in the low 40's.

Sunday: cloudy with a 40% chance of light rain and showers. Highs in
the low 50's and lows in the mid 40's. North winds increasing 10-15mph.

Jeff Lindner

[jeffl]

Strong cold front still expected Thursday, but it appears the onset of
cold air advection will not be until late Thursday.

The slight slowing of the frontal passage may allow deeper moisture to
work into the area on Wed. into Thurs. bringing a little better chance
of rain. In fact the ETA and GFS develop what appears to be streamer
showers moving north out of the Gulf by early Wed. as moisture
increases.

The cold front will pass through SE TX sometime late Thurs. with
strong cold air advection starting Thurs. evening. Temps. will be cold
by Fri. morning under mostly cloudy skies and gusty north winds. Skies
may clear or at least break some on Friday before the next upper level
storm system begins to affect the area over the weekend. Highs Fri.
will be much colder with temps. struggling to get out of the 50's.

Weekend:

Weather will be going downhill fast over the weekend. The approach of
the next upper level storm system early Sat. into AZ and NM will force
a coastal trough to develop along the lower TX coast. Surface winds
will remain out of the NE keeping the surface cold pool locked in
place while mid and upper level winds go SW. This will advect moisture
on top of the cold air dome and set up an overrunning event starting
late Sat into Monday. Condensation pressure deficits will be running
fairly high on Sat as the atmosphere saturates from the top down and
surface dewpoints slowly rise due to virga. By late Saturday evening
the 305K and 295K isentrophic surfaces are saturated and rain should
begin to make it to the ground increasing in coverage and intensity.
There may be a period of wet bulbing at the onset of the precip. Sat
night reducing temps. more than expected if dewpoints are low enough.

Sunday will be wet and raw as surface ENE winds keep the surface air
cold and a strong overrunning pattern develops. A 140kts sub-tropical
jet will round the base of the approaching upper level storm and this
will likely lead to a precip. max somewhere over the coastal area of
TX. Elevated instability increases by midday Sunday and elevated
thunderstorms will be possible. Highs will remain nearly steady in the
low to mid 50's except near the coast where a surface warm front may
move inland late in the day.

Surface low pressure develops over the NW Gulf Sunday night driven by
upper level forcing along the baroclinic zone and heads NE towards the
central Gulf coast where prcip amounts may be very impressive. Gusty north winds will replace the E winds and begin to dry the atmosphere. However the upper low is slow to move east and remains west of the area through next Tuesday with rain chances continuing and cold air still locked in at the surface.

Get ready for cloudy, wet, and cold conditions.

Jeff Lindner

[ticka1]

Sounds like a cold winter weekend. I love this kind of weather. Stay inside with the heater's on - make a pot of homemade chili.

I can't wait.

[stormy]

hummmmmmmmmmm i love chili, what time do i need to be at your house
Ticka.