Severe Weather Houston Area on Monday

[ticka1]

With all this warm weather will are having and the fast approaching cold-front - this makes a potential setup for severe weather.

Jeff - what do you think the chances are for us here in SE texas??

[Bozo]

Ticka, did you get his email this morning? I just did, looks like kick butt fun, but I have a geology test review Monday morning and have to pick up Mel at the airport at 2:00 so that will SEVERELY limit my chase activity. And who can chase on Halloween? So looks to be fun times for us. You working yet? I'll be through around 10:30 AM so will have a couple of hours to drive around...wanna go? I've got the LAPTOP!!!!!!

[ticka1]

You got a laptop? Woohoo!! I am substitute teaching - everyday that I have wanted to teach - I have gotten an assignment. So I really need to work everyday next week because I took off yesterday and today - to get ready for Chasity's slumber party.

If I don't work - I'll go and chase with you !!!

[Bozo]

It's not my laptop, but Melissa's. She STUPIDLY left it here when she went to Dallas for the weekend so if I "accidently" use it, I can't be held accountable, right?

[ticka1]

RIGHT. It grew legs and walked to your truck - wanted to take a ride!!!! You are a wise one LOL.

[ticka1]

Here is the latest Email from Jeff for the SE Texas area.

Severe Weather and heavy rainfall event setting up for Sunday into
Tuesday.

For today the start of changes can be seen this morning with radar
showing shower activity moving north from the Gulf of Mexico. The
ridge appears to be weakening some and this may allow more activity
once daytime heating begins.

For Saturday:

First cold front approaches from the north and stalls over our
northern counties. Moisture pools along and south of this boundary
with PWS rising to near 1.8 inches by midday Saturday. The influences
of the ridge will move off to our east and we will come under the
mercy of upper level SW flow with embedded disturbances. Showers and
thunderstorms will be scattered with more numerous activity to our
north.

For Halloween:

Increasingly dynamical lift will work on an un-capped and highly moist
atmosphere to begin the main event. PWS are forecast to surge to near
2.1 inches which is nearly 200% above normal for this time of year. A
strong low level jet will be oriented south to north over the area at
35-55kts near 925mb. A potent short wave will approach the area late
in the afternoon and likely result in a round of strong to severe
thunderstorms and very heavy rains. Due to the increasing low level
shear tornadic supercells will be possible. Heavy rainfall will also
be a major concern and the threat for training along SW to NE bands
will increase.

Monday:

Powerful front, strong upper level dynamics, deep moisture, and good
shear will make it an active day. Flooding, tornadoes, and severe
winds and hail will all be possible. Frontal movement will be slow and
a large squall line will cross the area during the day. Ahead of the
line strong directional shear will set the stage for tropical
supercells to move north out of the Gulf rooted in the low level jet.
Forecast hodographs are favorable for splitting supercells and right
turning supercells into the low level jet. The heavy rainfall setup
will also be good: A 950mb to 850mb moisture axis along with a strong
low level jet feeding tremendous moisture into the storms. Strong
divergent upper level 250mb winds over the region in the base of the
upper level trough, and excellent low level convergence along the
front. Rainfall totals for Monday alone could be very high should
training develop.

Forecast models now show a mid and upper level low cutting off over W
TX early Monday. This will force the front off the coast with strong N
winds taking over and much colder temps, however the rain and
thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday as moisture surges northward
over the frontal boundary and isentropic surfaces are saturated. Drier
air should finally move in by late Tuesday and clear the area out.
Temps. will be tricky with the clouds and rain with highs in the low
60's Tuesday and lows down well into the 40's by Wed. morning.

It should be noted that with such a cut off system developing the
models may be too fast in drying the area out and moving the system
east.

Stay tuned over the weekend for updates on this severe weather and
heavy rainfall event. We will likely be under the gun both late Sunday
and all day Monday.

Jeff Lindner

[Bozo]

Yep, but if you don't work, it would be YOU operating it, not me, so I further wash my hands of any guilt regarding the use of the laptop!!!! EVIL!!!!

Yes, the email from Jeff gives us SOMETHING to finally get excited about after this rather drab fall. Then again, last year's outbreak wasn't until mid November if I remember correctly so it's about time for things to start revving up again.

You get your DSL installed ok?

[ticka1]

I haven't installed it yet. Got one filter on the one phone we use in the house. Now I have to add the modem and run the CD they gave me. I hope to have it all done by this weekend.

[jeffl]

If yall do chase I will be more than happy to be a nowcaster for you. IE the person who remains behind and directs the chase team toward the action based on radar, meso anaylsis and other data.

Ticka has my number, just give me a call if you need information.

One note: it may not be the best chase weather considering the high precip. rates. Any tornadoes will likely be rain wrapped and extremely hard to see. The big threat currently appears to be damaging winds and very heavy rains.
Chasing in SE TX is difficult and I strongly suggest a target area west of town where trees and brush are lower and traffic is light (Austin Wharton counties). Heading E and NE puts you in the tree jungles of E TX with poor visibility and within Harris County is a waste of time with traffic conditions.

[Bozo]

Jeff, from what I'm reading this morning, the progged time of passage has now been kicked back it seems about another 6 hours. Models are being like Kerry, flipping back and forth. Given that, could you go out on a limb for me and give me a good time frame for peak activity? Also, could you compare this setup with the one last November that yielded some 28 tornadoes? Figure if I can fit all this into MY time frame (school, airport) then I'd head west or southwest. Suggestions?

Muchos gracias and if I can force Ticka into my truck, I'd love to use you as the nowcaster. I've got wireless internet on the computer but it's an older model with not much graphic capability so radar frames will be excruciatingly slow to load.

Suz

[ticka1]

Well after reading updates to the local forecast - looks like the severe storms won't be through here until late Monday night. Wish it would be earlier. What is your latest forecast Jeff?

Patricia

[Bozo]

Did you notice there wasn't even a HWO issued from the NWS in League City/Dickinson this morning? Everyone else had one. I know ours isn't usually out until 7:00 but I never did see one show up.

[ticka1]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 301951
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE DAY OF STATUS QUO THEN BIG CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON
MONDAY. FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. ONLY ISOLATED -TSRA HAVE MANAGED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTN. PWS EXPECTED TO DROP SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. DAYTIME
HEATING AND LACK OF CAPPING SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED -TSRA
SUNDAY...BUT WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS IN FORECAST.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
ACROSS TEXAS MONDAY. PREFER 12Z ETA SOLUTION WHICH REMAINS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SE TX. THINK MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE (PWS AROUND
2 INCHES)...STRONG UPPER DIFLUENCE AND IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL LIFT
FAVOR WIDESPREAD TSRA ON MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MORE UNCERTAIN. ETA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH HELICITIES OF
150-200 M2/S2. HOWEVER...COLUMN IS SATURATED AND INSTABILITY IS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. CURRENT HWOHGX MENTIONS SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY ACROSS SE TX MONDAY EVENING AND
OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BUT MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR ONCE
FRONT GETS PAST THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT CHANCE POPS WESTERN
ZONES...LIKELY EASTERN HALF MONDAY EVENING. PWS FALL RAPIDLY BEHIND
FRONT TO THE AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
KEEP 20S ON THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT DROPPED MENTION OF PRECIP
ELSEWHERE WITH SUCH RAPID DRYING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY WINDS ON THE COAST (POSSIBLY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA). MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT...AND HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPS
TO RUN 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

A BRIEF WARMUP POSSIBLE THU NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SE TX ON FRIDAY. MODELS STILL GOING BACK AND
FORTH ON POSSIBILITY OF UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL
LEAVE FORECAST AS IS.

35

&&

[jeffl]

Powerful cold front on tap for Monday although timing is still questionable as models continue to speed up the front and then slow it down. My gut feeling is for a slower frontal passage as more enrgy digs into the trough and results in a slower moving trough.

One thing is for sure you will know it when it arrives. Forecast models continue to trend colder and colder with temps falling 15-20 degrees with the front. Very strong cold air advection will take over after the front passes with gale conditions along the coast and offshore and wind advisory conditions inland. Could see mid 30's into central TX Wed. morning and for sure a hard freeze over W and NC TX.

The severe threat appears questionable also as strong warm air advection and thick cloud cover ahead of the system Monday should reduce instability. Parameters are not as supportive of severe weather as yesterday and I think the event will be more squall line driven with a damaging wind threat. The tornadic threat could be increased if the instability is underforecast.

More certain is the heavy rainfall threat with widespread 2-3 inches by early Tuesday over the area.

Looking ahead forecast models are not as interested in return flow and maintain and cool air mass over the region for the rest of the week. By Friday the GFS has a massive 1040mb high from Canada dropping into the southern plains. This could be another powerful cold front by the end of this week.

We will pay for all this record heat and warmth as October 2004 is go down as one of the warmest if not the warmest on record.

[BaytownWeatherWatcher]

I've been out of the loop, but this forecast for some cold weather is fantastic!!!!

[sealbach]

ahhh! perhaps my piece of CO is coming to visit...just what i need...if only i was on vacation to enjoy it........

[Bozo]

From NWS this morning:

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.


Can't remember the last time I saw that little blip. Always makes me want to do the happy dance...........

[longtalltexan79]

You know it's like bad karma or something that my mom and me go out on the day it is going to storm the worst, lol...we have errands to run tomorrow and will probably get caught in this stuff...have to take my niece back home to Alvin and go see the movie The Village, take my grandmother to the dentist....yup we're going to run into a deluge...I'm positve...it's just our luck...lol

[Bozo]

Ok all, have copied the most interesting part from afternoon discussion:
AS FAR AS SEVERE THREAT: MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS...BUT SIGNIFICANT SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. ETA FORECASTS HELICITIES AROUND 200 M2/S2
ACROSS SE TX MONDAY MORNING. THINK MAIN THREAT WITH FIRST ROUND OF
STORMS WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO REACH WRN ZONES MONDAY EVENING THEN
STALL...KEEPING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. BOTH ETA/GFS INDICATE TSRA REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE FORMING)...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED TO
BE OVER SRN ZONES/COAST. COULD SEE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ONCE
AGAIN...THIS TIME MORE OF A HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH DRIER MID LEVELS.

Let's all start the twister dance, shall we?

[Bozo]

This is what's on my level3 this morning:

[Bozo]

From NWS this morning:

OBVIOUSLY...THERE ARE MANY FORECAST ISSUES FOR THIS PACKAGE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT A FEW. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND PW
VALUES THAT WILL SURGE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A
CONCERN TODAY. SINCE THE FORECAST OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM HAS REALLY SLOWED...AN EXTENDED THREAT OF HVY RAINFALL
IS NOW IN PLACE (THROUGH TUESDAY). AM CONCERNED THAT TRAINING OF
STORMS COULD PILE UP SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY. ALSO NOTING
THAT THE LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY STALL
AT SOME POINT THIS MORNING AND WE MAY HAVE A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO WORK WITH LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LINE. FOR THIS REASON...I
HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM TODAY.
IF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE
A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT GETS IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SO WILL TAKE ONE 12 HR
PERIOD AT A TIME. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING...FEEL
THAT THE MENTION OF SVR TSTMS IS WARRANTED TODAY. ANY SMALL BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE SVR WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SFC. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE ANY LOCAL
BACKING OF THE WIND OCCURS AT THE SFC. MAY SEE A SVR THREAT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY ALONG THE FRONT...WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
MAKE THIS DECISION.