ticka1
10-28-2004, 01:10 PM
Our incredible streak of record heat will be coming to an end over the
next 3 days as upper level ridging over the Gulf breaks down and a
trough approaches from the west.
For Friday:
Gulf ridging begins to break down as a strong upper level storm system
moves into the plains and pushes a weak cool front into TX. This front
will stall to our north on Saturday. Given a weakening cap and
deepening moisture some showers will be possible on Friday especially
out west.
Saturday:
Gulf ridge gives way to troughing over the state with numerous short
waves forecast to move through the SW flow aloft. Frontal convection
to our north may drive outflow boundaries southward into the area and
set up training of heavy rainfall. Several factors including a good
low level jet, favorable jet dyanmics, and copious moisture could lead
to very heavy rainfall if convection is able to focus in one region
for an extended period of time.
Sunday:
Similar to Saturday. The surface boundary in our northern counties
will lift northward as deep low pressure forms in the TX panhandle
ahead of a powerful upper level trough. Cold air will begin to move
southward and a classic severe weather event will take shape over TX.
Strong warm advection will supply deep tropical moisture over the
state. Winds will veer to the SW and increase with height producing
ample speed and directional shear.
Sunday night and Monday:
Strong surface low heads for the Great Lakes and forces a strong cold
front through TX. Many factors will be in place for a severe weather
outbreak and heavy rainfall event late Sunday into early Monday. All
severe weather modes will be possible including tornadoes within
supercells ahead of the main line. A squall line will likely devlope
along the front over C and N TX and move through the area Monday
morning. Given the timing of late night and early morning the severe
threat may be slightly less, but strong dynamics may make up for a
lack of heating.
Front blast through the area with strong cold air advection Monday.
GFS progs very cool thickness into central TX that would support near
freezing temps. over west TX and the Hill Country Tuesday morning. It
remains in question as to how much cold air makes it this far south
and how long it hangs around.
NOTE: Daylight Savings Time begins Sunday at 200am. Clocks fall back
one hour and you gain an hour of sleep.
Halloween Forecast:
It will be touch and go with warm air advection showers and
thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening. It is still to
early to determine if it will be raining between 600pm and 1000pm
Sunday evening but the odds right now are about 50/50. It will be warm
and very humid with temps in the mid 70's and dewpoints in the low to
mid 70's. South winds will be gusty at 10-25mph. Chance of rain from
NWS is 40% and from forecast models is about 55%. More and likely we
will be seeing off and on activity increasing as the evening goes on.
Forecast updates will be coming later today (maybe), Friday, and into
the weekend on the severe threat and heavy rainfall threat.
Jeff Lindner
next 3 days as upper level ridging over the Gulf breaks down and a
trough approaches from the west.
For Friday:
Gulf ridging begins to break down as a strong upper level storm system
moves into the plains and pushes a weak cool front into TX. This front
will stall to our north on Saturday. Given a weakening cap and
deepening moisture some showers will be possible on Friday especially
out west.
Saturday:
Gulf ridge gives way to troughing over the state with numerous short
waves forecast to move through the SW flow aloft. Frontal convection
to our north may drive outflow boundaries southward into the area and
set up training of heavy rainfall. Several factors including a good
low level jet, favorable jet dyanmics, and copious moisture could lead
to very heavy rainfall if convection is able to focus in one region
for an extended period of time.
Sunday:
Similar to Saturday. The surface boundary in our northern counties
will lift northward as deep low pressure forms in the TX panhandle
ahead of a powerful upper level trough. Cold air will begin to move
southward and a classic severe weather event will take shape over TX.
Strong warm advection will supply deep tropical moisture over the
state. Winds will veer to the SW and increase with height producing
ample speed and directional shear.
Sunday night and Monday:
Strong surface low heads for the Great Lakes and forces a strong cold
front through TX. Many factors will be in place for a severe weather
outbreak and heavy rainfall event late Sunday into early Monday. All
severe weather modes will be possible including tornadoes within
supercells ahead of the main line. A squall line will likely devlope
along the front over C and N TX and move through the area Monday
morning. Given the timing of late night and early morning the severe
threat may be slightly less, but strong dynamics may make up for a
lack of heating.
Front blast through the area with strong cold air advection Monday.
GFS progs very cool thickness into central TX that would support near
freezing temps. over west TX and the Hill Country Tuesday morning. It
remains in question as to how much cold air makes it this far south
and how long it hangs around.
NOTE: Daylight Savings Time begins Sunday at 200am. Clocks fall back
one hour and you gain an hour of sleep.
Halloween Forecast:
It will be touch and go with warm air advection showers and
thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening. It is still to
early to determine if it will be raining between 600pm and 1000pm
Sunday evening but the odds right now are about 50/50. It will be warm
and very humid with temps in the mid 70's and dewpoints in the low to
mid 70's. South winds will be gusty at 10-25mph. Chance of rain from
NWS is 40% and from forecast models is about 55%. More and likely we
will be seeing off and on activity increasing as the evening goes on.
Forecast updates will be coming later today (maybe), Friday, and into
the weekend on the severe threat and heavy rainfall threat.
Jeff Lindner