ticka1
10-13-2004, 07:49 AM
First big front heading for TX this morning.
Upper air pattern continues to amplify this morning with ridging
punching into W Canada. A strong polar jet is rounding the top of the
ridge and plunging south through the western plains. A strong
baroclinic zone has set up over the TX panhandle with the cold front
entering SE CO right now. A sub-tropical jet was noted over TX with
what appears to be a weak jet streak near the Big Bend.
Dynamics this evening:
Forecast models show a split jet structure over SE TX by late this
evening as the base of the trough digs into TX and the sub-tropical
jet is over the coastal areas. This will create strong upper level
divergence over the area after sunset. Warm air advection today will
moisten the air column, however models may be over doing moisture
return. At the same time, EWX NEXRAD does indicate weak echoes already
near San Antonio in the strong WAA regime. The jet dynamics, lift, and
moisture should be enough for thunderstorms along and behind the
front. Mid level temps cool, and SPC has the area outlooked for
damaging winds and hail with the stronger storms.
After midnight the front will be moving toward the coastal waters with
strong cold air advection taking over. Expect a good 10-15 degree temp
drop with the front by Thursday morning. Strong pressure rises behind
the front will pack isobars over the area and gusty NNW winds will
develop by early Thursday. As the cooler air hits the warm Gulf, winds
will increase greatly with gust up to or greater than 40mph. Inland
locations can expect sustained 10-20mph with gust near 30mph. Skies
will be slow to clear Thursday as weak upglide develops above the cold
pool, and showers may not end until noonish. This will keep temps in
check in the low 60's or upper 50's for a good part of the day with
periods of rain and strong N winds. It will feel cold compared to the
last 6 months.
Skies clear Thursday afternoon and winds decrease to near 5-10mph
overnight Thursday. This will lead to good radiational cooling and
lows well into the 40's Friday morning.
Quick warm up this weekend as southerly flow returns. Atmosphere
remains dry through the middle of next week before another system
moves in from the west.
Forecast for Game 1 in St Louis:
Cloudy, cool, damp. Temps. in the mid to low 50's. N winds 15-20mph
and a 30% chance of drizzle and light rain.
Go Astros
Jeff Lindner
Upper air pattern continues to amplify this morning with ridging
punching into W Canada. A strong polar jet is rounding the top of the
ridge and plunging south through the western plains. A strong
baroclinic zone has set up over the TX panhandle with the cold front
entering SE CO right now. A sub-tropical jet was noted over TX with
what appears to be a weak jet streak near the Big Bend.
Dynamics this evening:
Forecast models show a split jet structure over SE TX by late this
evening as the base of the trough digs into TX and the sub-tropical
jet is over the coastal areas. This will create strong upper level
divergence over the area after sunset. Warm air advection today will
moisten the air column, however models may be over doing moisture
return. At the same time, EWX NEXRAD does indicate weak echoes already
near San Antonio in the strong WAA regime. The jet dynamics, lift, and
moisture should be enough for thunderstorms along and behind the
front. Mid level temps cool, and SPC has the area outlooked for
damaging winds and hail with the stronger storms.
After midnight the front will be moving toward the coastal waters with
strong cold air advection taking over. Expect a good 10-15 degree temp
drop with the front by Thursday morning. Strong pressure rises behind
the front will pack isobars over the area and gusty NNW winds will
develop by early Thursday. As the cooler air hits the warm Gulf, winds
will increase greatly with gust up to or greater than 40mph. Inland
locations can expect sustained 10-20mph with gust near 30mph. Skies
will be slow to clear Thursday as weak upglide develops above the cold
pool, and showers may not end until noonish. This will keep temps in
check in the low 60's or upper 50's for a good part of the day with
periods of rain and strong N winds. It will feel cold compared to the
last 6 months.
Skies clear Thursday afternoon and winds decrease to near 5-10mph
overnight Thursday. This will lead to good radiational cooling and
lows well into the 40's Friday morning.
Quick warm up this weekend as southerly flow returns. Atmosphere
remains dry through the middle of next week before another system
moves in from the west.
Forecast for Game 1 in St Louis:
Cloudy, cool, damp. Temps. in the mid to low 50's. N winds 15-20mph
and a 30% chance of drizzle and light rain.
Go Astros
Jeff Lindner