donsutherland1
10-12-2004, 11:15 PM
Preliminary Winter 2004-05 Forecast
Given the preponderance of possible analogs coming up, I believe Winter 2004-05 will see colder than normal conditions in the eastern third to half of the United States and warmer than normal ones in the western quarter to third of the United States. Just to be clear, on a regional scale, I do not believe that cold anomalies will rival those of the extreme Winter of 1976-77. Rather, the figures will probably come out somewhere between those of Winters 2002-03 and 2003-04—probably somewhat warmer than Winter 2002-03 but somewhat colder than Winter 2003-04—particularly in the Washington, DC to Boston region.
Map: http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=331263
Warmer than normal: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, New Mexico, and Washington
Cooler than normal:Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin
Elsewhere, I expect temperatures to average near normal.
For what it is worth, the following are the fifteen lowest combined mean temperatures for the December-February period in DCA, NYC, and BOS since 1950-51 are:
1. 1976-77: 29.8°
2. 1962-63: 30.1°
3. 2002-03: 31.0°
4. 1993-94: 31.1°
5. 1960-61: 31.2°
6. 1958-59: 31.2°
7. 1977-78: 31.4°
8. 1969-70: 31.5°
9. 1967-68: 31.8°
10. 1970-71: 32.2°
11. 1981-82: 32.2°
12. 1963-64: 32.3°
13. 1961-62: 32.6°
14. 2003-04: 32.8°
15. 1995-96: 32.8°
Confidence in this temperature forecast is high.
In terms of precipitation anomalies, I believe the following anomalies are likely:
Gulf Coast: Below normal precipitation
Midwest: Below normal to near normal precipitation
Northeast: Near normal to above normal precipitation
Pacific Northwest & Coast: Near normal to above normal precipitation
Elsewhere, I expect near normal precipitation.
Drier than normal: Alabama, Arkansas, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas
Wetter than normal: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Virginia
Anticipated Snowfall for Winter 2004-05 for Select Cities:
Albany: 80”-90”
Baltimore: 18”-23”
Boston: 50”-60”
Chicago: 40”-50”
Cleveland: 80”-90”
Detroit: 40”-50”
New York City: 20”-30”
Philadelphia: 20”-25”
Pittsburgh: 60”-70”
Providence: 45”-55”
St. Louis: 18”-28”
Washington, DC: 12”-17”
MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS:
• Weak El Niño (Central Pacific variety)
• Region 3.4 will have greater warm anomalies than Region 1+2; there is some chance that Region 1+2 maintains a slight cool anomaly on average during the winter
• Region 1+2’s average temperature during the December-March period will likely come in below 25°C; Region 3.4’s average temperature during the same timeframe will likely come out to above 27°C
• The PDO will be +
• The QBO will average between +5 and –5 with a switch to East occurring, probably during the January-February period
UPDATE:
By the end of November or even early December, much additional data concerning ENSO anomalies, PDO, QBO, SSTAs, Northern Hemisphere Snowcover, etc., should be in place. At that time, trends with respect to key teleconnection indices such as the PNA and NAO should be more readily apparent. Therefore, if necessary, an update would be provided.
Given the preponderance of possible analogs coming up, I believe Winter 2004-05 will see colder than normal conditions in the eastern third to half of the United States and warmer than normal ones in the western quarter to third of the United States. Just to be clear, on a regional scale, I do not believe that cold anomalies will rival those of the extreme Winter of 1976-77. Rather, the figures will probably come out somewhere between those of Winters 2002-03 and 2003-04—probably somewhat warmer than Winter 2002-03 but somewhat colder than Winter 2003-04—particularly in the Washington, DC to Boston region.
Map: http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=331263
Warmer than normal: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, New Mexico, and Washington
Cooler than normal:Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin
Elsewhere, I expect temperatures to average near normal.
For what it is worth, the following are the fifteen lowest combined mean temperatures for the December-February period in DCA, NYC, and BOS since 1950-51 are:
1. 1976-77: 29.8°
2. 1962-63: 30.1°
3. 2002-03: 31.0°
4. 1993-94: 31.1°
5. 1960-61: 31.2°
6. 1958-59: 31.2°
7. 1977-78: 31.4°
8. 1969-70: 31.5°
9. 1967-68: 31.8°
10. 1970-71: 32.2°
11. 1981-82: 32.2°
12. 1963-64: 32.3°
13. 1961-62: 32.6°
14. 2003-04: 32.8°
15. 1995-96: 32.8°
Confidence in this temperature forecast is high.
In terms of precipitation anomalies, I believe the following anomalies are likely:
Gulf Coast: Below normal precipitation
Midwest: Below normal to near normal precipitation
Northeast: Near normal to above normal precipitation
Pacific Northwest & Coast: Near normal to above normal precipitation
Elsewhere, I expect near normal precipitation.
Drier than normal: Alabama, Arkansas, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas
Wetter than normal: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Virginia
Anticipated Snowfall for Winter 2004-05 for Select Cities:
Albany: 80”-90”
Baltimore: 18”-23”
Boston: 50”-60”
Chicago: 40”-50”
Cleveland: 80”-90”
Detroit: 40”-50”
New York City: 20”-30”
Philadelphia: 20”-25”
Pittsburgh: 60”-70”
Providence: 45”-55”
St. Louis: 18”-28”
Washington, DC: 12”-17”
MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS:
• Weak El Niño (Central Pacific variety)
• Region 3.4 will have greater warm anomalies than Region 1+2; there is some chance that Region 1+2 maintains a slight cool anomaly on average during the winter
• Region 1+2’s average temperature during the December-March period will likely come in below 25°C; Region 3.4’s average temperature during the same timeframe will likely come out to above 27°C
• The PDO will be +
• The QBO will average between +5 and –5 with a switch to East occurring, probably during the January-February period
UPDATE:
By the end of November or even early December, much additional data concerning ENSO anomalies, PDO, QBO, SSTAs, Northern Hemisphere Snowcover, etc., should be in place. At that time, trends with respect to key teleconnection indices such as the PNA and NAO should be more readily apparent. Therefore, if necessary, an update would be provided.