Latest on the tropics!

[windy]

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on August 4, 2004
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on major Hurricane Alex...located about 800 miles southwest of Cape Race Newfoundland.

The remnants of Tropical Depression Two...located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea...are moving westward at 15 to 20 mph. Thunderstorms have become more concentrated about 185 miles east of Bonaire...or about 360 miles south-southeast of Puerto Rico. The slower movement of the system may allow a surface low pressure center to form and....if necessary...an Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system Thursday morning to determine if regeneration is occurring.

A weak low pressure system in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean is located about 830 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. The system is moving west-northwestward at 15 mph and shower activity is minimal at this time. Further development...if any...should be slow to occur.


Hope the tropics heat up again. :)

[stormy]

just when i thought the tropic were heating up. gosh, the weather is boring. maybe something will come from these 2. hope so. :)

[windy]

TD2 may regenerate in the next couple of days.Recon is going to check it out on friday. Also TD3 may form as well in the next couple of days. Waiting for the 10:30pm news on the tropics.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052109
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
ALEX...MOVING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH
OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE GENERATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...BUT MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... EASTERN CUBA
AND JAMAICA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON..IF NECESSARY.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[StingRay]

000
Abnt20 Knhc 060925
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws/tpc National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Am Edt Fri Aug 6 2004

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Weakening
Hurricane Alex...moving Rapidly East-northeastward About 550 Miles East Of Cape Race Newfoundland.

The Remnants Of Tropical Depression Two...a Tropical Wave Extending From Haiti And Southeastern Cuba Southward Across The Central Caribbean...continue To Produce Disorganized Showers And Thuderstorms. Upper-level Winds Remain Unfavorable For
Development...but May Gradually Become More Favorable Over The Next Day Or So. The System Is Expected To Move To The West-northwest At 10 To 15 Mph And Bring Locally Heavy Rainfall To Portions Of Hispaniola...southeastern Cuba And Jamaica. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft Is Scheduled To Investigate The System This Afternoon...if Necessary.

A Well-defined Low Pressure System Is Located About 1050 Miles
East Of The Northern Leeward Islands. This System Continues To Show Signs Of Organization As It Moves Westward About 15 Mph. While Upper-level Winds Are Only Marginally Favorable For Development At This Time...a Tropical Depression Could Form During The Next Day Or So.

Elsewhere...tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through
Saturday.

Forecaster Beven

[StingRay]

000
Abnt20 Knhc 061512
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws/tpc National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1130 Am Edt Fri Aug 6 2004

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center Has Issued The Last Advisory On
Rapidly Becoming Extratropical Alex Located About 870 Miles
East Of Cape Race Newfoundland.

Cloudiness And Showers Associated With The Tropical Wave...
Remnants Of Tropical Depression Two...continue Over The Central
Caribbean Sea. Since Upper-level Winds Are Expected To Become A
Little More Favorable...some Slow Development Is Possible During
The Next Day Or Two As The System Moves Over The Northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Locally Heavy Rains Are Expected Over Portions Of
Hispaniola...southeastern Cuba And Jamaica. The Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance Aircraft Scheduled To Investigate The System Today Was
Cancelled But Another Plane Will Check The Area On Saturday...if Necessary.

Satellite Images Indicate That The Area Of Low Pressure Centered
About 935 Miles East Of The Northern Leeward Islands Is Better
Organized This Morning And Has The Potential To Become A Tropical
Depression Later Today Or Saturday. However...upper-level Winds
Are Not Favorable For Significant Development. The Low Is Forecast To Move
Toward The West About 15 Mph.

Elsewhere...tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through
Saturday.

Forecaster Avila

[windy]

asking them if they see the disturbance in a particuliar location they would email me back and say were watching the tropics and we will report anything that looks like development. Then I realized better keep my coments to myself. Lol :D

[StingRay]

000
Abnt20 Knhc 070841
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws/tpc National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Am Edt Sat Aug 7 2004

For The North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave...remnants of Tropical Depression Two...are located over the western Caribbean Sea. Some slow development is possible during the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate later today...if necessary.

A low pressure area is centered about 600 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and is moving west-northwestward. Upper-level winds are currently not favorable for significant development.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.

Forecaster Lawrence

[windy]

by 1 hurricane. Its still going to be active. I'm sure by early next week we should start seeing some development. :)

[ticka1]

Windy I hope you are right on seeing more development next week. I was off work for 3 whole days and nothing - I mean nothing was worth watching.

[windy]

A poster on GoPBI 2004 said that the fizzled TD2 looks like its flaring back up again.Lol :D I told the poster they need to write abook about the depression that wouldn't die.Lol. :D

[StingRay]

Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws/tpc National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1130 Am Edt Sun Aug 8 2004

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Tropical Wave Located About 600 Miles East Of The Windward Islands
Is Moving Westward Near 25 Mph. This System Is Expected To Bring
Locally Heavy Showers And Gusty Winds To Portions Of The Lesser Antilles
Over The Next Day Or Two. Surface Pressures Are Not Falling And There
Is No Sign Of Tropical Cyclone Formation.

An Area Of Cloudiness And A Few Showers Over The Northwestern
Caribbean Sea...just To The South Of Western Cuba...is Associated
With The Remnants Of Tropical Depression Two. Although Upper-level
Winds Appear To Be Favorable For Some Redevelopment Of This
System...the Associated Thunderstorm Activity Is Limited At This
Time.

Elsewhere...tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through Monday.

http://us.f1.yahoofs.com/bc/14351a9d/bc/smilies/screaming.gif?BCBHmFBB_xl6LvV6 WHERE'S THE TROPICAL RIFF RAFF?

[windy]

just give it some time. I think by early next week & on we should see something develop. I'm sure the tropics aren't going to stay this quiet by far. Dr. Gray said an above average season so we need to give him credit for something. Even if it is -1 hurricane form his may prediction. :D Lol. Take care.

[stormy]

just give it some time. I think by early next week & on we should see something develop. I'm sure the tropics aren't going to stay this quiet by far. Dr. Gray said an above average season so we need to give him credit for something. Even if it is -1 hurricane form his may prediction. :D Lol. Take care.
welll it had better hurry up, its been so quiet this year in B'ham not many spring storms, just my flood, and not much going on in the tropic, what will this fall bring. i am almost scared to ask, one right after the other, i will go pc blind. ;)

[StingRay]

Nws/tpc National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Pm Edt Sun Aug 8 2004
For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The Remnants Of Tropical Depression Two Have Become A Little Better Organized During The Past 24 Hours And Consist Of An Area Of Cloudiness And Thunderstorms Located Over The Extreme Northwest Caribbean Sea. This System Has Some Potential For Additional Development During The Next Day Or Two As It Moves Slowly Northwestward. An Air Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft Is Scheduled To Investigate On Monday Afternoon...if Necessary.

A Tropical Wave Is Located A Few Hundred Miles East Of The Windward Islands And Is Moving Westward Near 25 Mph. There Is No Sign Of Tropical Cyclone Formation...however This System Is Expected To Bring Thunderstorms To Portions Of The Lesser Antilles Over The Next Day Or Two.

Elsewhere...tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through Monday.

Forecaster Lawrence

http://us.f1.yahoofs.com/bc/14351a9d/bc/smilies/angry+mob.gif?BCsKsFBBLJtQP7tE

[windy]

I saw the 11:30pm outlook it looks as though the remants of TD2 is coming back to life.Lol :D The depression that wouldn't give up death. :D Lets see what happens this week. I knew something would develop soon. :)

[stormy]

thanks for the heads up windy, yes i may have something to look at this week. :)

[windy]

The 5:30 am report as of 8/9/says that the remnants of TD2 could re-develop today. A recon is scheduled to fly in there to see what they find. Looks like it became much better organized. Lets keep our fingers crossed. :)

[StingRay]

This makes me uncomfortable.....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/images/xxirg8n.GIF

[StingRay]

Because my daughter is on a cruise ship down there, that's why.

[StingRay]

ABNT20 KNHC 091511

TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS/TPC
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE CENTERED IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH OF THE NORTH COASTOF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND COULD RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF TOBAGO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS WELL ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DOES NOT OCCUR...SQUALLS WITH SOME WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE LIKELY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WAVE ON TUESDAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH


http://us.f1.yahoofs.com/bc/14351a9d/bc/smilies/couch+smiley.gif?BCPj6FBBpSevmpnX

[ticka1]

I hope Mel has her motion sickness meds. Or her trip might be doing a U-turn and heading back to PR.

[StingRay]

Cruise is not going good. Check your email.:(

[stormy]

stingray, i am so sorry that the trip is not going well. hardcore is right those ships can handle that and they r not going to put passengers in the way of harm. let me know what is happening and i will pray, which ship is she on.

[windy]

I don't think those cruise ships would put their passengers into harms way. Too many lawsuits would follow if any got injured. Just hang in there stingray everything will be alright I sure you. Windy.....