Severe Weather Headed Towards SE Texas

[ticka1]

From the Storm Prediction Center:

VALID 041514Z - 041715Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN TX. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LINE OF STORMS FROM NEAR LONGVIEW WWD TO NEAR WACO ARE MOVING SSEWD AT 20 TO 25 KT. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED AS ELEVATED STORMS IN A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT HAS TRANSITIONED TO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS ACROSS E CNTRL AND SE TX. THE WEAKENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE STORMS TO PERSIST AS A STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...CAP IS WEAK...AND THE SWD MOMENTUM ENHANCED BY THE COLD POOL MAY SUSTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE FOR THE STORMS TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS.

In English this means that the nasy weather in north/east Texas may drop southward and give all/some of the area a chance of strong thunderstorms later this afternoon.


Dan Meador
KHOU-TV

[ticka1]

Latest from JeffL on the severe weather in Texas:

Heavy Rainfall event underway across TX.

Dallas NEXRAD estimating upwards of 5.0 inches of rain since this
morning over and N of the Dallas area.

A strong short wave is currently located over eastern New Mexico and
will be pushing ESE over the next 48 hours. Additional thunderstorms
have already developed over the Concho Valley and are moving E at
25mph.

Locally:

Rain chances will be raised to 60 north and 40-50 central zones as
strong MCS is bearing down on the area from the north. Forward motion
puts the leading convective line into our northern counties within the
hour. Surface meso anaylsis shows 2-3mb pressure falls along the
leading edge of the complex and temp. contrast of 20-25 degrees. This
should allow the outflow to reach deep into SE TX during peak heating.
A seabreeze will also develop and push inland meeting the outflow
boundary somewhere over the central zones. Lightening data is showing
tremendous cloud to ground positive strikes along the leading edge of
this line with strike densities of 25-45 per minute.

Heavy rainfall threat will continue into the rest of the week,
becoming more widespread and intense Wednesday and Thursday.

Flash Flood Watches may be required later this week.

Jeff Lindner

[archergirl66]

All I can say is... I will believe it when I see the actual puddles in the street. :D

-gina-

[stormy]

That is no fair. I want some rain too. we have nothing in the forcast at all. this stinks.

[Bozo]

Ticka, go check under the We.Need.Rain. thread. I just left you to screen caps of interesting radar shots.

[ticka1]

I saw them - what the hell is going on Bozo? Explain it to me.

[longtalltexan79]

BRING...IT...ON!! lol

[Bozo]

No reports of anything to NWS as of right now, reports MAY not be posted yet. Of course I couldn't report anything since my dsl was out to lunch.

[ticka1]

Check out the line heading down from College Station - its getting close to the Houston area. Looks intense. What do you have on it bozo?

[longtalltexan79]

Weather has calmed down here...just raining now, and the occasional thunder, but not like it was earlier....saw on the news the report about the tornado in Friendswood...guess Gina was right...looks like they got some nasty stuff...

[ticka1]

Frank Billingsley just gave his forecast - we could have flooding tropical rains here on Thursday and Friday - with the high to the East it would be blocking the tropical low from moving east and therefore sitting on top of SE Texas/SW La.

Looks like the tropical moisture flow extends all the way down into Central America - that is not good.

I guess time will tell if this weather event transpires.

Glad to hear things are better in your area Lynndy. We had a brief downpour with lightning and thunder. The line fell apart as is passed over us here in Mont Belvieu.

Frank said another round tomorrow.

[longtalltexan79]

Looks like it's time to get out all the floatation devices....might need them come the end of the week...

We're supposed to go to the Sugar Land area tomorrow maybe to go shopping...hope we don't get washed away from the next round of storms...