Sept. Data Lends Support to Cool Winter in East

[donsutherland1]

The September 2004 data for Boston, New York City, and Washington, DC was as follows:

City: Mean Temperature/Precipitation:

Boston: 65.2°/3.96"
New York City: 69.3°/11.51"
Washington, DC: 71.6°/3.99"

Highlights:

• Boston: 40th warmest September on record (records go back to 1872)
• New York City: 3rd wettest September on record (records go back to 1869)

The closest match to September 2004 was September 1944:

Boston:
1944: 65.0°/5.36"
2004" 65.2°/3.96"

New York City:
1944: 70.1°/10.30"
2004: 69.3°/11.51"

Washington, DC:
1944: 70.6°/4.97"
2004: 71.6°/3.99"

Although not a prospective analog itself, Winter 1944-45 does match a number of prospective analogs under review.

Winter 1944-45 featured a colder than normal winter from the Mid-Atlantic to Northeastern region. Such a situation is showing up in a number of analogs derived from ENSO regional anomalies, QBO, etc.

Moreover, Winter 1944-45 saw 59.2" snowfall in Boston. A 50"-60" winter for Boston with potential for more has shown up in a fairly large number of prospective analogs and also some of the regional data compared to past years.

Overall, the outcome of September 2004 has lent support to the analogs that point to a cooler than normal winter in the East and warmer than normal in the West.

[ticka1]

A colder winter in the EAST being forecasted in several different places Don. I for one see if happening and after looking at your data - its probably going to. Even though it will be cold - will it bring record snows like everyone wants along the East Coast? I hope for the sake of everyone in the NorthEast that the price of heating oil goes down.

I'll keep this post around and come back to it in March or April next year and see how it verified Don. Thanks for the post.

You know I am going to ask this - what do you see for a winter here in Texas? I know you said the West would be warmer - but Texas is like between the two.

Patricia

[stormy]

ok Don I will ask the same question, What weather condition for the winter for Birmingham. I heard its suppost to be alot colder here than normal. wonderful there goes the gas bill. I will be wearing layers of clothers here at my house.
What about snow.

[sealbach]

This came from CNN:

...The outlook for December through February was being issued Wednesday.

For the Northeast, Midwest and parts of the Southwest the forecast is too close to call as to whether the winter will be warm, cold or near normal, the agency said.

The outlook for rain or snowfall calls for wetter than average conditions in parts of California, the extreme Southwest and across the Southern U.S. -- from Texas to Florida. That could produce some improvement in drought conditions, though the ongoing dry spell is expected to continue in many areas.

Drier-than-average conditions are expected in the Midwest, northern Plains and Pacific Northwest.

The forecast reflects a weak-to-moderate El Nino in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, NOAA said. El Nino is a warming of Pacific waters that can alter the flow of the jet stream winds overhead and thus affect weather in many areas including the United States. While NOAA forecasters expect the El Nino to persist, they don't believe it will be as strong as the 1997-98 El Nino that affected the climate worldwide.

"Our winter forecast factors in the effects of a weak El Nino that may strengthen into a moderate event during the winter months," said NOAA Administrator Conrad C. Lautenbacher. "But we'll keep our eye on other climate features in the Pacific and the North Atlantic that play an important role on the week-to-week variability in our winter weather. These patterns influence the position of the jet stream and dictate where and how winter storms will move."

Jim Laver, director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said that during a weak El Nino there is likely to be "enhanced storminess near the Aleutian Islands and in the Southeast U.S., and warmer, drier conditions over western North America."

The temperature rundown
Warmer than normal: Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Montana, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska, most of Idaho and Wyoming, northwest half of Iowa.

Cooler than normal: Central and east Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, eastern half of Tennessee, northern half of Florida, South Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey.

Drier than normal: Hawaii, Washington, most of Oregon, Idaho, Montana, northern Wyoming, northern North Dakota, most of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania and northern and western New York.

Wetter than normal: Southern California, southwest Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, southwest Arkansas, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southern Georgia, south coastal South Carolina and all of Florida.

[donsutherland1]

Ticka,

You would ask the difficult question about snowfall, would't you? Just joking.

Right now, including the latest ENSO regional data (which is most similar to September 2002) and computer guidance, the cold for the East is increasingly likely. The issue of snowfall is more problematic. There are contradictions in the possible analogs.

I'll have a more detailed preliminary idea--which will include Texas--by around October 15. I awaiting some additional data for September e.g., Northern Hemisphere snowcover.

Rest assured, once I finalize the post--probably around mid-November when I should have a good idea as to the state of the NAO--I'll verify what went right and wrong. Hopefully, I'll be able to learn from errors that are made.

[donsutherland1]

Stormy,

I'll include a map in my preliminary ideas (around 10/15 maybe a few days earlier). I need to firm up some of the data for areas that are somewhat close calls.

I apologize for not yet being able to provide more satisfactory responses to either you or Ticka.

[donsutherland1]

Sealbach,

Several quick points:

1) The NOAA will be updating its forecast on October 21.
2) The forecast leaves room for change, especially as the early assumption is an El Niño that could become moderate. FWIW, I expect only a weak El Niño.
3) The El Niño will likely be a Central Pacific El Niño as opposed to a basin-wide one.

Right now, I'm thinking the area of cold could be more expansive than what this forecast calls for. Model data now supports such an idea.

Time will tell.

[ticka1]

Don - your response is good enough for me. I will wait patiently for your next updated report regarding the snow and etc this coming winter.

Thanks for posting here and coming back and responsing to our questions Don.

Patricia