donsutherland1
09-28-2004, 04:11 PM
The issue as to whether any additional tropical storms or hurricanes might hit Florida has arisen at several other message boards.
In my view, I believe Florida is not yet completely out of the woods.
Although, a majority of seasons with similar readings in the global indices have seen no Florida hits from October 1 on, seasons that have seen the development of 6 or more major hurricanes or 3 major hurricanes make landfall have generally seen Florida hit by one additional storm from October 1 on. The lone season with both 3 major landfalling hurricanes and the development of 6 or more major hurricanes (1909) saw a Florida landfall after October 1.
As the global indices do not fully explain tropical seasons and some of what is not captured by such indices might well be behind the large number of major storms and landfalling major storms, I don't believe one can rule out the possiblity of another hit.
There are two situations of which Floridians should be particularly concerned:
• A tropical storm or hurricane that forms or passes through a latitude of 16.0N or less and 80.0W-83.0W while heading between West and North-Northwest. These have often hit Florida. Notable storms include: Hurricane #11 (1944), Hurricane #8 (1948), and Hurricane Isbell (1964).
Hurricane #11 (1944):
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1944/11/track.gif
Hurricane #8 (1948):
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1948/8/track.gif
Hurricane Isbell (1964):
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1964/ISBELL/track.gif
• A tropical storm or hurricane that forms or passes through 18.0N-19.9N and 83.0W-85.0W with some easterly component to its track (not due east or east-northeast). While a number have missed Florida, a significant number have also hit Florida. Notable storms include: Hurricane #9 (1870) and Hurricane Irene (1999).
Hurricane #9 (1870):
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1870/9/track.gif
Hurricane Irene (1999):
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/IRENE/track.gif
The former situation is, by far, the more dangerous one. A majority of storms that met such criteria ultimately hit Florida.
In my view, I believe Florida is not yet completely out of the woods.
Although, a majority of seasons with similar readings in the global indices have seen no Florida hits from October 1 on, seasons that have seen the development of 6 or more major hurricanes or 3 major hurricanes make landfall have generally seen Florida hit by one additional storm from October 1 on. The lone season with both 3 major landfalling hurricanes and the development of 6 or more major hurricanes (1909) saw a Florida landfall after October 1.
As the global indices do not fully explain tropical seasons and some of what is not captured by such indices might well be behind the large number of major storms and landfalling major storms, I don't believe one can rule out the possiblity of another hit.
There are two situations of which Floridians should be particularly concerned:
• A tropical storm or hurricane that forms or passes through a latitude of 16.0N or less and 80.0W-83.0W while heading between West and North-Northwest. These have often hit Florida. Notable storms include: Hurricane #11 (1944), Hurricane #8 (1948), and Hurricane Isbell (1964).
Hurricane #11 (1944):
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1944/11/track.gif
Hurricane #8 (1948):
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1948/8/track.gif
Hurricane Isbell (1964):
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1964/ISBELL/track.gif
• A tropical storm or hurricane that forms or passes through 18.0N-19.9N and 83.0W-85.0W with some easterly component to its track (not due east or east-northeast). While a number have missed Florida, a significant number have also hit Florida. Notable storms include: Hurricane #9 (1870) and Hurricane Irene (1999).
Hurricane #9 (1870):
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1870/9/track.gif
Hurricane Irene (1999):
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/IRENE/track.gif
The former situation is, by far, the more dangerous one. A majority of storms that met such criteria ultimately hit Florida.