Wildfires/Drought

[Texas SpeedDiva]

Information from Jeff L.

One of the worst wildfire days in Texas history occurred yesterday.

[link to the state incident report listing all the wildfires http://ticc.tamu.edu/Documents/Home/tx_sitrep.pdf

Drought conditions across SE TX deepen into the “exceptional” category or the worst category on the US drought index scale. Current drought is the second worst since the late 1800’s with the 1950’s multi year drought being the worst on record.


Red Flag Fire Warning issued for all of SE TX for today.
Upper level trough which brought strong tornadoes to the upper Midwest Saturday and Sunday brought very strong winds across Texas this weekend. The strong winds along with very low surface RH and bone dry vegetation led to one of the worst wildfire outbreaks the state has ever experienced. Fires already burning over west TX from last week exploded on Sunday as surface winds of 35-55mph resulted in rapid forward fire growth. In Potter County alone an ongoing fire went from 1,000 to 65,000+ acres in a few hours on Sunday afternoon. The Midland County fire which was also burning prior to yesterday expanded to 16,500 acres and burned 34 homes. In Presidio County the Marfa Fire burned an unknown number of acres and 20-30 homes. In the last 7 days, 200 wildfires have burned 187, 113 acres across the state of Texas. 25 states are currently supplying resources to the state of Texas including both ground and air support to attempt to contain ongoing fires.


Cool front will move across the region this morning ushering in a very dry and windy air mass. Critical fire weather concerns will be met at many locations today leading to potential rapid and explosive wildfire growth. Very strong cap in place this morning has and will continue to prevent thunderstorms from developing and the lack of rain will only worsen the ongoing drought and fire weather. Afternoon RH is expected to fall to less than 20% west of I-45 and 20-30% east of I-45 and this combined with NW winds of 15-20mph and very dry surface fuels all support a high fire danger this afternoon and evening. Highest threat area will be in the Montgomery and Walker county areas where fires have been the last few days in the dense forest regions. The state of Texas and the Texas forest Service has equipment and manpower prepositioned in the region to quickly respond to any wildfire.


Otherwise, little change from our dry and windy weather for this week. What appeared to be a decent shot at rainfall for this Thursday has slowly trended toward another dry frontal passage as strong aping will prevent anything from developing along the boundary over SE and S TX. Winds will be weakest on Tuesday for the first time in days and then swing back to the south and increase on Wednesday. Should see strong southerly flow Thursday as the next trough approaches from the west and passes well north. Wednesday/Thursday are looking to be dangerous fire days across the state and suspect a few very large and fast moving fires will develop.

[link to Texas burn ban map http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/DecBan.pdf]

Drought Update:

After another very dry week the drought index update last Friday pushed much of the area into an exceptional drought, indicating significant impacts from drought on vegetation and livestock. Since February 1st, Conroe has only received .97 of an inch of rainfall and at Huntsville only .49 of an inch. Below are the rainfall amounts and departures for the past six months from the National Weather Service.:



LOCATION OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR TOTAL PERCENT
OF NORMAL



BELLVILLE 0.00 1.28 0.98 2.75 0.76 1.14 6.91 35.7

NORMALS 3.70 3.76 3.16 3.33 2.48 2.92 19.35

DEPARTURE -3.70 -2.48 -2.18 -0.58 -1.72 -1.78 -12.44



BRENHAM 0.03 1.42 1.28 4.15 0.81 0.80 8.49 40.3

NORMALS 4.48 4.17 3.29 3.41 2.78 2.93 21.06

DEPARTURE -4.45 -2.75 -2.01 +0.74 -1.97 -2.13 -12.57



COL STATION T 0.90 0.81 2.99 0.61 0.69 6.00 31.3

NORMALS 4.22 3.18 3.23 3.32 2.38 2.84 19.17

DEPARTURE -4.22 -2.28 -2.42 -0.33 -1.77 -2.15 -13.17



COLUMBUS 0.00 2.59 1.30 3.51 0.64 0.48 8.52 41.1

NORMALS 4.16 3.99 3.21 3.61 2.84 2.93 20.74

DEPARTURE -4.16 -1.40 -1.91 -0.10 -2.20 -2.45 -12.22



CONROE T 5.33 1.49 4.04 0.61 0.35 11.82 49.3

NORMALS 4.70 4.79 4.37 4.21 2.97 2.94 23.98

DEPARTURE -4.70 +0.54 -2.88 -0.17 -2.36 -2.59 -12.16



CROCKETT 0.85 3.43 1.12 5.29 0.70 0.35 11.74 51.7

NORMALS 4.22 3.93 4.02 4.00 3.10 3.45 22.72

DEPARTURE -3.37 -0.50 -2.90 +1.29 -2.40 -3.10 -10.98



DANEVANG 0.00 2.40 4.28 3.62 0.37 0.05 10.72 53.5

NORMALS 4.56 3.68 3.08 3.23 2.67 2.83 20.05

DEPARTURE -4.56 -1.28 +1.20 +0.39 -2.30 -2.78 -9.33



GALVESTON 1.37 6.90 2.13 3.86 0.67 2.70 17.63 87.7

NORMALS 3.49 3.64 3.53 4.08 2.61 2.76 20.11

DEPARTURE -2.12 +3.26 -1.40 -0.22 -1.94 -0.06 -2.48



FREEPORT 0.03 3.86 1.75 4.21 0.84 0.81 11.50 51.2

NORMALS 4.52 4.42 3.51 4.29 2.84 2.87 22.45

DEPARTURE -4.49 -0.56 -1.76 -0.08 -2.00 -2.06 -10.95



HOU HOBBY 0.07 4.75 5.84 4.10 0.34 0.78 15.88 66.1

NORMALS 5.26 4.54 3.78 4.25 3.01 3.19 24.03

DEPARTURE -5.19 +0.21 +2.06 -0.15 -2.67 -2.41 -8.15



HOU IAH 0.02 2.71 3.04 5.05 0.69 0.78 12.24 54.6

NORMALS 4.50 4.19 3.69 3.68 2.98 3.36 22.40

DEPARTURE -4.48 -1.48 -0.65 +1.37 -2.29 -2.58 -10.16



HUNTSVILLE 0.58 2.01 1.23 3.62 0.37 0.07 7.88 32.6

NORMALS 4.32 4.87 4.10 4.28 3.14 3.47 24.18

DEPARTURE -3.74 -2.86 -2.87 -0.66 -2.77 -3.40 -16.30



LIVINGSTON 0.14 3.23 1.38 3.73 0.89 0.84 10.21 40.0

NORMALS 3.82 4.76 4.92 4.64 3.47 3.89 25.50

DEPARTURE -3.68 -1.53 -3.54 -0.91 -2.58 -3.05 -15.29



KATY 0.00 2.01 1.73 4.76 0.05 1.24 8.55 41.4

NORMALS 4.00 4.41 3.67 3.34 2.59 2.64 20.65

DEPARTURE -4.00 -2.40 -1.94 +1.42 -2.54 -1.40 -9.46



MADISONVILLE 0.21 1.05 1.09 2.89 0.81 0.95 7.29 33.3

NORMALS 4.41 4.01 3.62 3.81 2.83 3.24 21.92

DEPARTURE -4.20 -2.96 -2.53 -0.92 -2.02 -2.29 -14.63



MATAGORDA 0.05 2.85 1.66 3.42 0.61 0.89 9.48 48.7

NORMALS 3.72 4.19 2.57 3.63 2.81 2.54 19.46

DEPARTURE -3.67 -1.34 -0.91 -0.21 -2.20 -1.65 -9.98



NEW CANEY 0.00 6.18 2.71 6.42 0.96 0.90 17.17 67.9

NORMALS 4.57 4.83 4.40 4.22 3.31 3.96 25.29

DEPARTURE -4.57 +1.35 -1.69 +2.20 -2.35 -3.06 -8.12



SOMERVILLE 0.03 0.88 0.80 2.77 0.41 0.08 4.97 25.9

NORMALS 4.33 3.63 3.14 2.93 2.53 2.62 19.18

DEPARTURE -4.30 -2.75 -2.34 -0.16 -2.12 -2.54 -14.21



TOMBALL T 3.28 1.00 2.52 0.30 1.24 8.34 35.8

NORMALS 4.02 5.11 3.89 3.85 3.33 3.09 23.27

DEPARTURE -4.02 -1.83 -2.89 -1.33 -3.03 -1.85 -14.93



WASH ST PARK 0.00 1.17 1.29 3.76 0.66 1.08 7.96 38.3

NORMALS 4.38 3.68 3.30 3.54 2.74 3.13 20.77

DEPARTURE -4.38 -2.51 -2.01 +0.22 -2.08 -2.05 -12.81



There appears to be little relief in sight as the 7-14 days period continues to show a dry signal in the CPC outlooks and model data. Drought conditions will only continue to worsen.

[Texas SpeedDiva]

Main concern continues to be fire weather operations.

Some locations did get enough rainfall yesterday to wet the pavement, but most of what fell did little to ease the ongoing drought and fire weather. RH values yesterday afternoon fell to a bone dry 5-15% across the region and when combined with the gusty NW winds led to critical fire weather across the entire state. Ongoing fires across west TX continue to burn out of control this morning with well defined hot spots noted on IR satellite images and large smoke plumes on visible images. Locally, a couple of fires developed yesterday in Montgomery, Walker, and San Jacinto, and Brazos Counties with a fairly large fire now burning in the pine forest in Angelina County around Lufkin threatening 11 homes. A fire also developed in Brazos County yesterday and burned 10 acres in a short period of time threatening several homes.

In the last 7 days 332,079 acres have burned across the state in 204 separate wildfires, much of this on Sunday. The worst fires continue in western Texas from Saturday and Sunday:

Marfa/Rockhouse Fire: 80,000 acres burned, 30-40 homes destroyed in and around Fort Davis with 100-120 power poles burned. Fire is 10% contained and continues to burn out of control. Extensive ground and air resources are responding to this fire with the primary goal to slow fire progression and save structures.

Swenson Fire: 103,384 acres burned, 285 power poles destroyed, 170 head of cattle lost, no homes lost. Fire is 50% contained and continues to burned out of control in heavy dry fuels and rough terrain across Stonewall, King, and Knox counties.

Hickman Fire: 16,500 acres in Midland County. 34 homes burned with 500 residents displaced. Fire is 98% contained.

Since January 1st, 2001 902,924 acres have burned across the state of Texas in 5,297 wildfire. A totals of 12,617 structures were threatened and 617 have been destroyed.

Forecast:

Best day for fire weather operations will be today for both air and ground capabilities to attempt containment of the ongoing fires. Extremely hazardous fire weather conditions will return on Wednesday and last into this weekend with the period Wed-Thurs looking very critical over SW, W, and NC TX and then the entire state on Friday. Upper level trough currently along the west coast will eject into the plains Thursday and this system will induce strong surface low pressure formation in the great plains. Strong S to SW winds will develop over much of TX on Wednesday and with RH values only slowly recovering over W TX, very dangerous fire weather conditions will be met. Winds will increase into the 15-30mph range on Wednesday resulting in rapid fire growth and defensive fire fighting operations. Weak cold front will cross the state Thursday/Friday pushing humid Gulf air mass southward with a very dry air mass overspreading all of TX Friday and Saturday. Strong W to NW winds on Friday will bring critical fire weather conditions to the entire state. Winds should ease some on Saturday, but dry low levels will remain in place until winds swing back around to the south on Sunday. The next 3-4 days are going to be rough for fire fighting operations given strong surface winds, dry fuels, and dry low level air mass.

[Texas SpeedDiva]

Like a broken record the same ole song this week as many of the last…hot, dry, and windy.

A weak cool front will sag into the northern sections of SE TX late tonight and stall before a stronger front pushes through the region early Wednesday. There are just about as many factors going against thunderstorms this afternoon as there are for them across our northern counties. A strong mid level inversion remains in place across the region…as has been the case going on 2 months now and this inversion while forecast to weaken may end up being the main limiting factor to the southward extent of thunderstorms this afternoon. While moisture levels are increasing, they remain fairly shallow and capped off by very dry air aloft. Additionally, SE TX will fall in a more unfavorable jet stream structure this afternoon with gradual subsidence aloft…not to mention we are suffering through one of the worst droughts on record. On the favorable side of things, a weak surface boundary and strong surface heating will help to erode and at some point likely break through the capping inversion north of HWY 105 by late afternoon. Pent up surface energy will be released and expect the isolated to scattered storms that do develop will go quickly severe with large hail and wind damage the main threats. Will go with 40% north of HWY 105 for this evening and then quickly drop rain chances south of that as strong aping looks to hold sway and keep thunderstorms up to the north. May see a very isolated storm as far south as I-10, but this is not the widespread soaking rain we need!

Otherwise the winds will continue to howl as they have now for several weeks out of the south. Expecting another day today and again on Tuesday of S winds 15-25mph and gusty especially during the afternoon hours. Cool front will cross the area early Wednesday morning with strong NNW winds likely. May see a think band of showers with this front, but that is it…with no rain chances for the rest of the week.


Fire Weather:

Main concern will be fire weather especially on Wednesday! Fire weather watches are already being hoisted and Wednesday/Thursday are shaping up to be potentially very dangerous fire weather days. Cold front will usher in a very dry air mass with dewpoints falling into the low 30’s and surface temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80’s. This will support late morning-afternoon RH falling below 30% across the entire region. NNW winds of 15-25mph, combined with bone dry fuels, and very dry low level air mass will encourage rapid fire growth and spread. With a lack of wetting rains fires continue to exhibit erratic and aggressive behavior. A few large and devastating fires will be likely during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame and numerous Red Flag Warnings will likely be issued/needed in the next 24 hours leading up to Wednesday.

Drought Update:

For the first time in the 12 years of the US Drought Monitor Index, the entire state of Texas (100%) is classified in drought status, compared to 4% last year at this time. If rain does not fall at BUSH IAH this week, April 2011 will go down as the driest April ever on record for Houston with only .11 of an inch of rainfall. Rainfall shortages continue to grow and many locations are approaching 6-9 inches below normal for this year and 10-20 inches below normal dating back to the end of summer 2010. To show just how dry it has been:

Danevang in Wharton County has received only .69 of an inch of rainfall from Feb 1-April 20: its driest Feb-April period ever. This year has surpassed the historical drought years of 1925 (.92) and 1916 (1.00).

Since March 15th, Houston Hobby has only reported a trace of rainfall, College Station .01 of an inch, and Somerville .02 of an inch. Somerville has only received 4.97 inches of rainfall since October 1, 2010 (or 24% of normal).

With April nearly over, the maximum rainfall cross SE TX this month has been .35 of an inch at Crockett, all other reporting locations have had less than that.

91% of the state of Texas is classified in severe to exceptional drought conditions making the 2011 drought historic in scope on duration and severity, and damages.
Ag Impacts:

Widespread impacts are in progress with fields extremely dry and spring gasses either dead or not growing resulting in cattle losses. Hay suppliers are expected to deplete supplies soon. Stock water tanks are near record low levels and some ponds have run dry. Trinity County has been declared a federal disaster area due to the ongoing drought conditions.


Water Supply:

The majority of water supplies remain well stocked, but several local municipalities have begun to enact water restrictions due to demand being placed on their systems. The following list below have voluntary water restrictions that have been put into place.


City of Huntsville
City of Riverside
City of New Waverly
City of Santa Fe
City of Bayou Vista
City of Omega Bay
The Woodlands
City of Pearland
Greatwood subdivision
Harris County MUD 230

Lake Travis at Austin is running 13 feet below its conservation pool level. The combined storage in the Highland Lakes system is approaching 1.44 million acre feet of about 72% of capacity. At 70% of capacity or 1.40 million acre feet, LCRA will enact its state approved water management plan requiring water restrictions. If rain does not fall in the next few weeks, the lakes are expected to reach these critical water levels during the first few weeks of May.

A continued lack of rainfall will likely require additional water restrictions to be put into effect, both from developing water shortages, but more from significant demand being placed on supply systems which can overload the system reducing water pressure.

[Texas SpeedDiva]

One thing people might want to keep in mind is with the continuing dought conditions and the hot weather we may become more subject to pipe breaks which could impact water supplies in various areas.

Consider your water needs and if you have the ability you might consider having a water container that you keep filled .... just in case. You can rotate the water and use the old to water plants in your garden or on your patio.

[Texas SpeedDiva]

Drought update from Jeff:

Drought:


April 2011 goes down as the driest April ever recorded at Hobby, BUSH IAH, and College Station and the 3rd driest at Galveston. IAH only recorded .11 of an inch for the month and both Hobby and College Station tallied a trace. IAH has only received 1.58 inches of rainfall since Feb 1st and Hobby 1.12 inches of rainfall making the Feb 1-Apr 30, 2011…the driest Feb-Apr period on record for those sites. Hobby Airport has gone 47 days without rainfall a new record (previous was 46 in Oct/Nov 19978). IAH has gone 97 days without .50 of an inch of rainfall in a day…the old record was 93 days.

Along with the dryness has come the heat…they typically go hand in hand. For each of the 4 major climate sites, 44 new or tied records were established last month. Galveston recorded its warmest April temperature ever on the 27th of 95 degrees. The monthly average temperature of 75.6 degrees at College Station is the warmest on record (old record was 74.0 in 1967). Temperatures across the area averaged 5-7 degrees above the 30 year climate normals.