ticka1
11-24-2010, 06:09 AM
Looks like we might see our first freeze in the area on Saturday 11/27/2010 - make sure you take precautions if you are going out of town to protect plants, people and pets.
Houston/Galveston...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
THIS MORNING AND THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE N
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL LAG BACK FROM
THE DAKOTAS TO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE A VERY COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS COLD
AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE N PLAINS. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
REACHING THE RED RIVER. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ARE ALL ON THE SAME
PAGE WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING THROUGH 18Z THUR HOWEVER THE GFS
SPEEDS UP THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHES IT THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM/ECMWF LAG BEHIND
THE GFS BY A FEW HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT IS PREFERRED TO STICK WITH
THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION AS FRONT USUALLY HAVE A HARD TIME
MAKING SOUTHWARD PROGRESS DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. I
STILL THINK WE WILL SEE A THIN LINE OF STORMS FORM ALONG THE
FRONT SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A TAD MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WILL BE WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS SETS UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND THEN WELL INTO THE GULF BY FRI MORNING. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER C TX.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS SE TX THAN BEFORE. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
AIRMASS BEING VERY DRY AS DEWPOINT TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S. WINDS SHOULD BE CALM WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVEN THE
SFC RIDGE SITTING OVER SE TX BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 HOURS.
Houston/Galveston...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
THIS MORNING AND THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE N
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL LAG BACK FROM
THE DAKOTAS TO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE A VERY COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS COLD
AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE N PLAINS. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
REACHING THE RED RIVER. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ARE ALL ON THE SAME
PAGE WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING THROUGH 18Z THUR HOWEVER THE GFS
SPEEDS UP THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHES IT THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM/ECMWF LAG BEHIND
THE GFS BY A FEW HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT IS PREFERRED TO STICK WITH
THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION AS FRONT USUALLY HAVE A HARD TIME
MAKING SOUTHWARD PROGRESS DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. I
STILL THINK WE WILL SEE A THIN LINE OF STORMS FORM ALONG THE
FRONT SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A TAD MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WILL BE WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS SETS UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND THEN WELL INTO THE GULF BY FRI MORNING. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER C TX.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS SE TX THAN BEFORE. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
AIRMASS BEING VERY DRY AS DEWPOINT TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S. WINDS SHOULD BE CALM WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVEN THE
SFC RIDGE SITTING OVER SE TX BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 HOURS.