jeffl
09-10-2004, 11:41 AM
Powerful Hurricane Ivan bearing down on Jamaica.
Based on satellite imagery and Jamaica radar, it appears Kingston (capital) will take a direct hit or be within the northern eyewall.
Visible satellite imagery also confirms that Ivan has completed its eyewall replacement and is intensifying again. A recon. airfcraft is currently on the way to measure the intensity. It is very possible that Ivan may reach 150-160mph again before hitting Jamaica. Due to the rapid increase in wind with height, the mountians along the southern coast of Jamaica will likley see sustained winds near 160 or higher as the hurricane moves through. Gust could exceed 200mph over the higher elevations. Needless to say there is going to be extreme damage if not total destruction across the island.
The NHC forecast track has changed little since this morning. Only a slight west shift has been made. The current track brings hurricane force conditions along the entire west FL coast as Ivan moves up the coast instead of at a 90 degree angle and inland. This means there will be extensive damage from both wind and surge along the entire FL W coast from the Keys to north of Tampa and maybe as far N as Tallahassee. This is based on the current NHC forecast, a turn to the east would result in a landfall location further south along the coast. It is also possibel that Ivan could track more west and keep the hurricane force winds off the FL coast until near the Tampa area. Still too hard to pinpoint the exact landfall and impacts, as even a small wobble one way or the other could mean several miles of difference. Remember Charley was forecast to hit Tampa and turned at the last minute going in further south. This is a very real possibility with this storm also, that is why the enitre west coast of FL will have to be prepared.
Jeff Lindner
Based on satellite imagery and Jamaica radar, it appears Kingston (capital) will take a direct hit or be within the northern eyewall.
Visible satellite imagery also confirms that Ivan has completed its eyewall replacement and is intensifying again. A recon. airfcraft is currently on the way to measure the intensity. It is very possible that Ivan may reach 150-160mph again before hitting Jamaica. Due to the rapid increase in wind with height, the mountians along the southern coast of Jamaica will likley see sustained winds near 160 or higher as the hurricane moves through. Gust could exceed 200mph over the higher elevations. Needless to say there is going to be extreme damage if not total destruction across the island.
The NHC forecast track has changed little since this morning. Only a slight west shift has been made. The current track brings hurricane force conditions along the entire west FL coast as Ivan moves up the coast instead of at a 90 degree angle and inland. This means there will be extensive damage from both wind and surge along the entire FL W coast from the Keys to north of Tampa and maybe as far N as Tallahassee. This is based on the current NHC forecast, a turn to the east would result in a landfall location further south along the coast. It is also possibel that Ivan could track more west and keep the hurricane force winds off the FL coast until near the Tampa area. Still too hard to pinpoint the exact landfall and impacts, as even a small wobble one way or the other could mean several miles of difference. Remember Charley was forecast to hit Tampa and turned at the last minute going in further south. This is a very real possibility with this storm also, that is why the enitre west coast of FL will have to be prepared.
Jeff Lindner