Texas SpeedDiva
01-14-2010, 09:42 AM
Larry Cosgrove has some thoughts that those of us in Texas may find worth the read in the Houston Examiner yesterday. Winter is far from over as Late January into February continues to look shall we say, "interesting"...
http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m1d13-Weather-Forecast-For-Houston-TX-And-VicinityThursday-January-14-2010
Quote:
As it turns out, the very aggressive treatment the numerical models applied to the developing storm over Mexico may be correct. Once again, the computer outlooks show a very unstable regime over the Bay of Campeche being entrained into the deepening low, shifting the center eastward under a convective complex. Houston should see moderate rain and some very gusty winds, but the predictive equations say the worst of this system will be concentrated to our immediate south (strong thunderstorms below a Matagorda to Eagle Pass line) and to our east (heavy rains along the Interstate 10 corridor east of Lafayette LA and up along the Atlantic Coastal Plain).
The Bayou City will be miserable through the first part of the weekend. Cloudy, dreary and rainy conditions with gusty winds and cool temperatures should persist into Saturday afternoon. The developing storm will deepen, head across the Southeast and relocate off of the Virginia Capes. Mixed precipitation and some icing may be an issue in Appalachia and the Piedmont, with the west side of the Interstate 95 corridor from Fredericksburg VA to Norwalk CT at risk of slush or glazing. The rain/ice/snow division is tricky, but I am fairly certain now that a belt from WV into the southern portion of New England and Nova Scotia are in line for a quick hit of heavy wet snow. Note the track of the system will allow for sudden infiltration of the cold dome in Quebec.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, a warm spell (yes, the January Thaw....) will arrive on Sunday, with both Dr. King's Birthday and Tuesday likely to see readings in the 70s (F) for Houston. I suspect that the surge of warmer air will only last until January 21 - 22, as the model sets have been trending colder by the 11 - 15 day forecast period. A prominent Kelvin wave straddling an area from Sarawak to the International Dateline should link with the polar westerlies again (see the connection with the strong storm over the western Pacific Ocean?), creating a window for +PNA and -AO ridging, much like what is shown on the 240 hour ECMWF outlook for North America.
http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m1d13-Weather-Forecast-For-Houston-TX-And-VicinityThursday-January-14-2010
Quote:
As it turns out, the very aggressive treatment the numerical models applied to the developing storm over Mexico may be correct. Once again, the computer outlooks show a very unstable regime over the Bay of Campeche being entrained into the deepening low, shifting the center eastward under a convective complex. Houston should see moderate rain and some very gusty winds, but the predictive equations say the worst of this system will be concentrated to our immediate south (strong thunderstorms below a Matagorda to Eagle Pass line) and to our east (heavy rains along the Interstate 10 corridor east of Lafayette LA and up along the Atlantic Coastal Plain).
The Bayou City will be miserable through the first part of the weekend. Cloudy, dreary and rainy conditions with gusty winds and cool temperatures should persist into Saturday afternoon. The developing storm will deepen, head across the Southeast and relocate off of the Virginia Capes. Mixed precipitation and some icing may be an issue in Appalachia and the Piedmont, with the west side of the Interstate 95 corridor from Fredericksburg VA to Norwalk CT at risk of slush or glazing. The rain/ice/snow division is tricky, but I am fairly certain now that a belt from WV into the southern portion of New England and Nova Scotia are in line for a quick hit of heavy wet snow. Note the track of the system will allow for sudden infiltration of the cold dome in Quebec.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, a warm spell (yes, the January Thaw....) will arrive on Sunday, with both Dr. King's Birthday and Tuesday likely to see readings in the 70s (F) for Houston. I suspect that the surge of warmer air will only last until January 21 - 22, as the model sets have been trending colder by the 11 - 15 day forecast period. A prominent Kelvin wave straddling an area from Sarawak to the International Dateline should link with the polar westerlies again (see the connection with the strong storm over the western Pacific Ocean?), creating a window for +PNA and -AO ridging, much like what is shown on the 240 hour ECMWF outlook for North America.