ticka1
09-06-2004, 08:50 AM
This article is from AP news source. Coriolis sent this to me.
http://home.bellsouth.net/s/editorial.dll?bfromind=2214&eeid=4290761&_sitecat=1522&eetype=article&render=y&ck=
Hurricane Forecasters' Predictions Awaited
Published: 9/6/04
MIAMI (AP) - As Hurricane Frances swirled off Florida's coast, officials wanted word on whether to evacuate millions of residents and reporters insisted on more information about where the menacing storm was headed.
It was the job of James Franklin and five other hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center to predict Frances' path.
"The warning decisions that we make are going to affect how emergency managers are going to evacuate hundreds of thousands - even millions - of people," Franklin said.
During the six-month hurricane season that runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, the center is responsible for alerting people to storms in a vast expanse of two oceans - the Atlantic and eastern Pacific.
This year, four storms already have come ashore in the United States, more than twice the average of one to two storms a year, and there has been little rest for center workers, said National Weather Service meteorologist Jim Lushine.
The center was filled with activity as Frances threatened land. Local emergency management officials hungry for up-to-date reports camped out in the library. Federal Emergency Management Agency workers arrived to lend a hand. Reporters roamed freely, looking for information, a better camera shot and a few moments with the center's director, Max Mayfield.
The center's hurricane specialists - the best of the best in the tropical forecasting field - prepare regular storm updates as they rotate through shifts. Their forecasts will be used to decide when to evacuate residents, call for a state of emergency and take other precautions to protect the state.
Dozens of other experts, sensitive satellite orbiters and reconnaissance aircraft help spot and track rough weather, and forecasters sort through mathematical models to "categorize a chaotic atmosphere," center spokesman Frank Lepore said.
Each new technology was a huge leap forward in a field that once depended on strong ships that could withstand rough weather to deliver news of a coming storm. Despite the advances, predictions are not always precise.
Based on error rates over the past 10 years, the center cautions that forecasts can be off by 87 miles. Frances landed Sunday almost exactly where the center had predicted. Hurricane Charley landed within 45 miles of its predicted course last month, well within that margin, but forecasters were criticized for failing to adequately alert communities along Florida's southwest coast.
Franklin, a Florida native who spent 17 years flying into storms on reconnaissance aircraft before joining the center in 1999, said he's irked by complaints like those that followed Charley and is focused on "just getting out the message properly."
The experts have gotten a lot of practice getting out the message this season. Though there are only slightly more storms than usual this year, an unusually high number of them have come ashore.
"This year is probably most stressful as far as activity," said Lushine, a 32-year hurricane center veteran who plans to retire before next season.
___
On the Net:
National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)
http://home.bellsouth.net/s/editorial.dll?bfromind=2214&eeid=4290761&_sitecat=1522&eetype=article&render=y&ck=
Hurricane Forecasters' Predictions Awaited
Published: 9/6/04
MIAMI (AP) - As Hurricane Frances swirled off Florida's coast, officials wanted word on whether to evacuate millions of residents and reporters insisted on more information about where the menacing storm was headed.
It was the job of James Franklin and five other hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center to predict Frances' path.
"The warning decisions that we make are going to affect how emergency managers are going to evacuate hundreds of thousands - even millions - of people," Franklin said.
During the six-month hurricane season that runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, the center is responsible for alerting people to storms in a vast expanse of two oceans - the Atlantic and eastern Pacific.
This year, four storms already have come ashore in the United States, more than twice the average of one to two storms a year, and there has been little rest for center workers, said National Weather Service meteorologist Jim Lushine.
The center was filled with activity as Frances threatened land. Local emergency management officials hungry for up-to-date reports camped out in the library. Federal Emergency Management Agency workers arrived to lend a hand. Reporters roamed freely, looking for information, a better camera shot and a few moments with the center's director, Max Mayfield.
The center's hurricane specialists - the best of the best in the tropical forecasting field - prepare regular storm updates as they rotate through shifts. Their forecasts will be used to decide when to evacuate residents, call for a state of emergency and take other precautions to protect the state.
Dozens of other experts, sensitive satellite orbiters and reconnaissance aircraft help spot and track rough weather, and forecasters sort through mathematical models to "categorize a chaotic atmosphere," center spokesman Frank Lepore said.
Each new technology was a huge leap forward in a field that once depended on strong ships that could withstand rough weather to deliver news of a coming storm. Despite the advances, predictions are not always precise.
Based on error rates over the past 10 years, the center cautions that forecasts can be off by 87 miles. Frances landed Sunday almost exactly where the center had predicted. Hurricane Charley landed within 45 miles of its predicted course last month, well within that margin, but forecasters were criticized for failing to adequately alert communities along Florida's southwest coast.
Franklin, a Florida native who spent 17 years flying into storms on reconnaissance aircraft before joining the center in 1999, said he's irked by complaints like those that followed Charley and is focused on "just getting out the message properly."
The experts have gotten a lot of practice getting out the message this season. Though there are only slightly more storms than usual this year, an unusually high number of them have come ashore.
"This year is probably most stressful as far as activity," said Lushine, a 32-year hurricane center veteran who plans to retire before next season.
___
On the Net:
National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)