African Disturbances

[StingRay]

Thought I'd start this thread since now is about when I really start paying attention to the blobs coming off the coast of Africa. When they become invests we'll start a thread for them. Anyway, nice pretty blob coming off this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[windy]

Aug. starts to incline with activity and Sept. were in the peak on top. then Oct. it starts declining all the way into Nov. So things should start pretty mcuh picking up at this point. :)

[swmochic]

As usual I don't have any idea of what you're talking about, but why are there two threads for this???? Just wondering? :p

[ticka1]

Stingray must of made a double post. I will delete the other one.

[windy]

The cape verde wave has become better organized and entering a more favorable environment. Posters from another site said the african waves exiting are looking good. Well it looks like we may start having a lot to talk about during the few days. :)

[stormy]

windy i sure hope your right, thats exciting 3 to watch now. its about time. :D

[ticka1]

I'm gonna start a new thread on 91L this morning. It looks like its about ready to organize itself.

[amy]

Once the blob comes off Africa, how long do you estimate it's arrival near the US? That is, of course, if it's traveling in this direction. Is it days or weeks?
I'm anxious to learn as much as possible so don't hesitate in educating me. I'm a new weather enthusiast and I apologize in advance for my weather ignorance. I'm new to southeast Florida and don't have hurricane shutters on my house. I'm anxiously following the hurricane season and very excited about my new hobby - storm tracking. Thank you everyone out there.

[windy]

The best thing to do is monitor the waves coming off the african coast. I check the tropical outlook everyday to see if anything is developing. To answere the question as to how long it will take for a storm to reach the U.S.! it depends on how fast its traveling and to what direction it will go. I would say probably about a week or so to be near the U.S. coastline. But again this is something you may want to watch.

[amy]

I am reading all the weather related websites and have joined a few of these forums. You will see me around posting and monitoring all the blobs and systems coming this way.

Feel free to instruct me where to go as I am trying to learn as much as possible. Thank you! :)

[Coriolis]

Hi Amy -
Just an FYI but every degree is equal to 68.118 miles. The time it takes for a "blob" to reach the mainland will of course depend on the forward speed and that will change often. If you were to use the eastern Cape Verde Islands as a starting point and end at Miami - that distance is roughly 3832 miles.

Also - I would get hurricane shutters - soon as you can afford too!! You can either have a company make those or do it yourself. Many people use the metal corrugated with tracks at top and botton with wing nuts to hold them in place. Try one the hardware stores (Home Depot, etc) - they carry hurricane supplies.

Jim

[StingRay]

Here's a copy of an article I did for S2K:

Marva’s Hurricane Tips

Yes faithful readers, Marva has returned after a lengthy absence and just in time for Hurricane Season. The lovely time of year when everyone’s eyes turn towards the oceans and watch in trepidation for the tiniest blob to blow up into a storm the size of Australia and veer directly towards a heavily populated area. For those that are unfamiliar with hurricanes and hurricane preparation, I offer the following. Please note that the hurricane “Game On” season is only from June 1 through November 30. Only 6 months. However should you be unfortunate enough to know a weather geek, he or she will tell you the hundreds of models that they follow during the “Off” season show that a hurricane is definitely headed towards them once the season is “On”.
Essential Items to Purchase
1. Water. I know, you think water comes out of that hose from your next door neighbor, but after the storm everyone knows the water will be (more) contaminated and you’re gonna have to splurge this time and purchase as much as your grocery cart will hold.
2. Canned goods. You will have no dry wood to cook on the grill like you would normally, so preparing ribs for dinner is out for awhile. Don’t waste money on the name brands. You’ll be so aggravated after the BIG STORM you won’t care what they taste like.
3. Mosquito netting. Some folks will tell you to buy repellant but you won’t be showering once a week, more like once a month. You can easily modify any mosquito net into a lovely garment to be worn at all times since the bugs will be the size of woolly mammoths.
4. Gas Cans. For your generator you ask? Like you could afford that much gas. No dears, these should be filled with water (from your neighbors hose before the storm) and will come in handy for self defense when your neighbor tries to steal YOUR water.
5. Duct Tape. No, you don’t put duct tape on your windows. Useless. And besides you only have three windows, so what’s the point? The duct tape is to place over whiney kids’ or spouse’s mouths before, during and after the storm. And there’s gonna be ALOT of whining.
Before the BIG STORM
1. GET A MAP. Plot an evacuation route. Realize that all ways out of the city are under construction or are in a flood plain. Throw the stupid map away.
2. Bring in all your expensive plastic furniture, kiddie pools, dead potted plants, old tires, car parts, etc. These can become projectiles or will be blown into someone else’s yard for them to claim as their’s. Besides, you spent a fortune on that furniture and those tires will provide hours of entertainment as you float down the street in the fire-ant infested flood water.
3. Place all important stuff in ziploc baggies. Your squatter’s deed to the land, your Home Shopping Channel knife collection, your bunny slippers. Prioritize. Someone else may be able to survive without their Prozac, but you can’t.
During the BIG STORM
Not much to do but sit around and look at the Weather Channel and P. Allen Smith’s gardening tips until your neighbor pulls the extension cord back to his house. Then you can engage in lively family discussions, inevitably centered around who’s to blame for riding out the storm when you could have been at Aunt Mable’s having fried chicken right about now.
After the BIG STORM
Congratulate yourself on having survived without being killed and for having not killed a member of your immediate family during your FIRST HURRICANE. Wander aimlessly about the neighborhood. Look stunned for all the news media. Offer to give FIRST-HAND ACCOUNTS for a large amount of money, so you can just move away and forget about it. Remember why you never wanted to move from Kansas in the first place.

And mostly, keep your cool. These storms CAN BE monsters dropping right in your doorstep or never making landfall. Either way, if you’re prepared ahead of time, if you educate yourself on worse-possible scenarios, if you remember WHY you left Kansas, you’ll be way ahead of the game. And also remember-a little knowledge can be a good thing, but too much knowledge can lead to having your face glued to a TV or computer screen when you should be getting ready.

Stay safe all
Marva

Amy, not referring to you as a dummy. Just kinda a sarcastic look at hurricane preparation with a few useful ideas thrown in.

[StingRay]

It'll get more soon enough. These cars are just starting to try and connect together....

[Coriolis]

Tropical Wave Introduced Over The E Atlc W Of Dakar Near 20w S
Of 16n Moving W 10 Kt. Yesterday Evening's Sounding From Dakar
Had A 55 Kt Jet Core At 600 Mb Associated With The Wave... Quite
A Powerful System. Computer Models Are Hinting That This Is A
System To Monitor With A Gfs/ukmet/nogaps/cmc Consensus
Suggesting Some Sort Of Surface Low Will Develop In The Next 36
Hours Along This Wave Axis. Only Itcz Convection At Present.

[ticka1]

Okay so I haven't had my Dr Pepper this morning - that's coming off the coast of Africa right? Looks like a classic cape verde storm. Hope it holds together and I have something to watch all weekend since I can't do much.

THanks for the heads ups StingRay and Coriolis - you both are on top of the tropics - while I'm in lala land LOL.

[StingRay]

Yes maam, that be africa..
CLASSIC formation, imo...............watching, watching, watching.....

[stormy]

thanks guys, something to watch. please keep us informed for us ppl that dont know much about what is going on. but that may be just me. :)

[amy]

Thank you for the wonderful hurricane advice. I really enjoyed reading it although it was sarcastic (I laughed all through it). I realized that living in SE Florida is not paradise all year round. I will be investigating hurricane shutters this weekend. The problem is what do I put on my windows on the second floor? Most of them cannot be reached with a ladder. Do I put plywood on the insides? Will plywood work in place of real shutters for all the glass windows and doors on the first floor? Or do I forget the shutters all together and count on my homeowners insurance which is costing me thousands each year?

And I am a dummy when it comes to hurricanes. My mission is to learn all I can, watch the blobs and track the storms, and be prepared for the worst.

[StingRay]

Yeah, my advice was meant sarcastically since I have seen normally logical, calm people become absolute nuts once a tropical system shows up ANYWHERE. I mean, it could be making landfall 800 miles away and some people just lose it!!

Don't know much about hurricane shutters but will scream around and see what I can locate for ya.

Glad I gave you a laugh :D

[ticka1]

I know storm shutters are used by alot of folks in Florida. I will see if I can obtain some information for you Amy on where you can purchase or get some good advice on them. I think alot of it is - how much money you have to spend - from what I have heard you can spend thousands $$$ getting the best.

[ticka1]

That's some blob over land - wonder if it will hold up over the waters of the Altantic? It will take 24-48 hours to get off land and into water to know for sure.