If you have any questions or concerns - Jeff will be available to answer them today!

[ticka1]

Just post your question in this forum or if you prefer - you can send him a PM and he will answer it that way.

Also, he will be available on a limited basis this evening on the message board or the chatroom for realtime chat.

Ticka1

[Calistar]

I posted this on the Hurricane Frances thread.... thought maybe I should post it here instead:

OY VEY.... those models look very confusing! One of them shows her coming into N.O. area! Jeff..... what are your thoughts on this? Do you think she may be bouncing into the GOM and is it possible she could head towards the N.O. area?

[jeffl]

I am working today until 430, so I am not suppose to post at work, however it is lunch now.

I am taking off Friday to make myself fully available for most of the day

[StingRay]

Thank heavens you'll be here all day tomorrow. I think alot of us are REALLY going to need your expertise. Makes everyone a little less nervous knowing we have a pro on board!

[jeffl]

I posted this on the Hurricane Frances thread.... thought maybe I should post it here instead:

OY VEY.... those models look very confusing! One of them shows her coming into N.O. area! Jeff..... what are your thoughts on this? Do you think she may be bouncing into the GOM and is it possible she could head towards the N.O. area?


I do see the two models heading for SE LA. Even with the inclusion of the GIV data the models still seem split into two camps. One towards the Carolinas and the rest toward FL then into the extreme NE Gulf.

I am hard presses to buy a solation as far west as SE LA, but the FL panhandle could be in danger, especially if Frances does not gain more latitude.

[Bean]

Glad you'll be here tomorrow Jeffl! I'm getting worried about relatives in Tampa and Panama City. Thought they might be outta the woods. Concerns about savannah GA too. Do you know when we'll have a more accurate point of landfall and where it's gonna go.

[jeffl]

Bean,

With the track NHC landfall over northern Palm Beach up through Indian River county I see some impact on the Tampa area. The more south the hit the greater the impact on Tampa. Due to the expected slow movement, frictional forces should reduce the wind speeds fairly quickly after landfall, unlike Charley who was moving at 25mph. At this point I suspect Tampa will likley see gust over tropical storm force (around 50mph) but I would guess no sustained TS force.

The hit location and track is more important to Panama City as the direction of movement across the state will determine if Frances gets back over the water. Once again due to the slow movement I would suspect a good deal of her intensity will be gone IF she does emerge over the NE Gulf. The time over the water from an exit north of Tampa to a landfall along the FL panhandle would not likley be enough to get hurricane intensity again.

The ultimate track and landfall point on the east coast will be a determining factor for weather conditions at these two points.

Let me be very clear, the landfall point on the east coast is fairly important to those on the west coast and the panhandle, however it is not all that important on the east coast due to the fact of how large this storm is. The entire east coast will feel this storm, but do to frictional effects only a small section of the west coast will have significant impacts given the current forecast track.

Jeff