Texas SpeedDiva
10-15-2008, 01:56 PM
Found this Email from Jeff Lindner on another board
Moisture continues to increase setting the stage for heavy rains today into early Thursday.
Current:
GPS and GOES sounder data shows mass of 2.0+ inch PWS is moving onto the upper TX coast with local radars showing scattered to numerous showers developing. Moisture pool extends from the north side of TD # 16 over the SW Caribbean Sea across the entire Gulf of Mexico along the east side of a TUTT axis along the lower Mexican coast near Tampico. Upper trough has ejected into the plains with strong cold front nearly stationary in the same location as yesterday across C TX west of I-35. Strong short wave will eject into the plains today sending this front SE into our region this evening.
Scattered showers will continue to develop and train SE to NW across the region today. By mid to late afternoon front should reach our NW counties and induce additional lift of very moist air mass. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop and congeal along the frontal slope. Expect a wet night as the front slowly crosses the area producing widespread rains.
Given deep tropical moisture nearing 150% above normal for mid October values, incoming slowing surface boundary, and threat for training excessive rainfall is possible this evening into early Thursday. Air mass is moist to a very deep level (15,000 ft) which will support warm rain production resulting in very efficient rainfall rates. Threat for cell training in SE to NW bands today and then SW to NE bands tonight supports excessive short term rainfall rates.
Will go with widespread amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches possible. Would not be surprised to see some location get more than 6 inches. Short term rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour will result in flooding of secondary roads fairly quickly as noted yesterday in SW Houston.
It is strongly encouraged that residents remove Hurricane Ike debris from roadside ditches and storm drains to allow run-off to flow unimpeded.
After Thursday afternoon…very dry and cool air mass entrenches for the weekend under sunny skies with lows in the 50’s and highs around 80.
Hurricane Omar:
Omar consist of a large mass of deep cold thunderstorms with cloud tops at or below -80C this morning. ON IR images an occasional weak warm spot continues to be noted suggesting what recon. is finding of a partial eyewall structure. However Omar continues to lack a well defined inner core and latest recon. data suggest the hurricane remains at minimal 75mph. Outflow has improved over Omar to the east and is still restricted to the west due to weak shear. A pronounced outflow channel has develop to the NE of the hurricane into a deepening mid ATL trough…looks fairly impressive on satellite. Omar has begun the slow NE motion indicating the deepening trough is influencing the hurricane and should shortly capture Omar and swing it NE across the US and British Virgin Islands. Hence a hurricane warning has been issued for these areas and a TS warning and hurricane watch for Puerto Rico. Omar should increase in forward speed and pass over the NE Caribbean Island tonight. If an inner core is able to become established Omar has the potential to become at least a category 2 hurricane while crossing the NE Caribbean Islands. Given the ill defined inner structure reported by the aircraft…however this it is seeming increasingly likely that Omar will strike the NE Islands as a strong cat 1 or weak cat 2.
TD # 16:
Yet another tropical system forms in the ATL basin. TD # 6 was declared yesterday morning off the coast of central America. Since then the depression has moved generally westward along the northern coast of Honduras. While upper level conditions are nearly excellent with favorable outflow and banding in all areas….the close proximity to the coast has impeded development and in fact the system overall lacks much convection near the center. The depression is trapped under a building ridge over the SE US and SE Gulf of Mexico and will result in a slow W to WSW motion into southern Belize or northern Honduras. Track model guidance is trending ever so slightly southward with each run and it is very possible the depression will move inland before able to attain TS intensity.
Moisture continues to increase setting the stage for heavy rains today into early Thursday.
Current:
GPS and GOES sounder data shows mass of 2.0+ inch PWS is moving onto the upper TX coast with local radars showing scattered to numerous showers developing. Moisture pool extends from the north side of TD # 16 over the SW Caribbean Sea across the entire Gulf of Mexico along the east side of a TUTT axis along the lower Mexican coast near Tampico. Upper trough has ejected into the plains with strong cold front nearly stationary in the same location as yesterday across C TX west of I-35. Strong short wave will eject into the plains today sending this front SE into our region this evening.
Scattered showers will continue to develop and train SE to NW across the region today. By mid to late afternoon front should reach our NW counties and induce additional lift of very moist air mass. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop and congeal along the frontal slope. Expect a wet night as the front slowly crosses the area producing widespread rains.
Given deep tropical moisture nearing 150% above normal for mid October values, incoming slowing surface boundary, and threat for training excessive rainfall is possible this evening into early Thursday. Air mass is moist to a very deep level (15,000 ft) which will support warm rain production resulting in very efficient rainfall rates. Threat for cell training in SE to NW bands today and then SW to NE bands tonight supports excessive short term rainfall rates.
Will go with widespread amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches possible. Would not be surprised to see some location get more than 6 inches. Short term rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour will result in flooding of secondary roads fairly quickly as noted yesterday in SW Houston.
It is strongly encouraged that residents remove Hurricane Ike debris from roadside ditches and storm drains to allow run-off to flow unimpeded.
After Thursday afternoon…very dry and cool air mass entrenches for the weekend under sunny skies with lows in the 50’s and highs around 80.
Hurricane Omar:
Omar consist of a large mass of deep cold thunderstorms with cloud tops at or below -80C this morning. ON IR images an occasional weak warm spot continues to be noted suggesting what recon. is finding of a partial eyewall structure. However Omar continues to lack a well defined inner core and latest recon. data suggest the hurricane remains at minimal 75mph. Outflow has improved over Omar to the east and is still restricted to the west due to weak shear. A pronounced outflow channel has develop to the NE of the hurricane into a deepening mid ATL trough…looks fairly impressive on satellite. Omar has begun the slow NE motion indicating the deepening trough is influencing the hurricane and should shortly capture Omar and swing it NE across the US and British Virgin Islands. Hence a hurricane warning has been issued for these areas and a TS warning and hurricane watch for Puerto Rico. Omar should increase in forward speed and pass over the NE Caribbean Island tonight. If an inner core is able to become established Omar has the potential to become at least a category 2 hurricane while crossing the NE Caribbean Islands. Given the ill defined inner structure reported by the aircraft…however this it is seeming increasingly likely that Omar will strike the NE Islands as a strong cat 1 or weak cat 2.
TD # 16:
Yet another tropical system forms in the ATL basin. TD # 6 was declared yesterday morning off the coast of central America. Since then the depression has moved generally westward along the northern coast of Honduras. While upper level conditions are nearly excellent with favorable outflow and banding in all areas….the close proximity to the coast has impeded development and in fact the system overall lacks much convection near the center. The depression is trapped under a building ridge over the SE US and SE Gulf of Mexico and will result in a slow W to WSW motion into southern Belize or northern Honduras. Track model guidance is trending ever so slightly southward with each run and it is very possible the depression will move inland before able to attain TS intensity.