Tropical Storm Hermine

[Canefan_of_the_gatorland]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA CONTINUES TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL
BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

FORECASTER PASCH

[ticka1]

Just heard this - now is TD8 going to affect Frances? Wonder if it will develop and become Hermine?

Now where is Ivan??? You know Ivan the Terrible?

[ticka1]

WTNT33 KNHC 292055
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM IN AUGUST...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...THE EIGHTH
OF THE 2004 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...HAS FORMED IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 325 MILES...520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

HERMINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 71.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[StingRay]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 292057
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...THE EIGHT
TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED AND...BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE MERGED WITH THE
MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEPS THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE
U.S EAST COAST. THEREFORE...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING ARE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 32.4N 71.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 33.5N 72.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 35.6N 73.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 39.0N 72.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL

[StingRay]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 300235
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

...HERMINE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST OR ABOUT
590 MILES... 950 KM... SOUTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.

HERMINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...33.2 N... 71.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

[StingRay]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 300238
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM BOTH
SAB AND AIRFORCE GLOBAL. BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 40 KTS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SAME
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST. ALSO...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED AND...BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE
MERGED WITH OR BEEN ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON. THIS MERGER OR ABSORPTION
MEANS THAT NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING WILL BE NECESSARY.
HOWEVER...GALE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 33.2N 71.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 35.1N 71.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 37.9N 71.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 41.2N 70.4W 45 KT...ABSORBED