Positive Phase of MJO returning to the Atlantic

[ticka1]

From what I am reading the positive phase right now is over in the Pacific and will soon be back in the Atlantic. With this we should see an increase in tropical action and possible development.

If anyone else has anything to add - just post it here.

[srainhoutx]

Tropics are again becoming a conversation piece this morning. We have a new INVEST 92L in the Atlantic Basin and several other depicted by models to become potential Invests over the next several days. The MJO pulse is currently over the EPAC and has certainly generated an uptick in activity there. We should have a while to watch the Atlantic Basin as the MJO pulse arrives in our Basin next week. One key factor early in the upswing of new activity will be the placement of the SE Ridge. My thoughts are that the ridge will hold strong for the next week or so and then flatten out or even retrograde W as mentioned by HPC ( http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html) ) this morning as we move toward a fall pattern. Should we see a return to an August 2004 pattern as mentioned by HPC things could get very interesting, particularly for our neighbors to the E. A strong trough is forecast to dive S in the Mid CONUS. We can see the beginning of this upstream with strong systems rotating N of the Great Lakes and "bowling ball systems" and attending fronts swinging down the E CONUS. We are nearing the true prime time for the Atlantic Basin according to climotology wise which peaks near September 12th and a sencondary milder peak around the middle of October. I will look for systems that will not recurve or perhaps form a bit closer to our own backyard (GOM/Caribbean) during this current MJO pulse. I can not rule out that a long tracking Cape Verde type system will not occur. We will have a long time to watch these type of systems. It is the little surprises closer to home that can sometimes be missed with the pattern that appears to be establishing it's self. Stay Safe and Stay Informed over the next 6 weeks.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)

Surface Analysis Maps...

24 Hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif)

48 Hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif)

72 Hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif)

[Bozo]

Tropics are again becoming a conversation piece this morning. We have a new INVEST 92L in the Atlantic Basin and several other depicted by models to become potential Invests over the next several days. The MJO pulse is currently over the EPAC and has certainly generated an uptick in activity there. We should have a while to watch the Atlantic Basin as the MJO pulse arrives in our Basin next week. One key factor early in the upswing of new activity will be the placement of the SE Ridge. My thoughts are that the ridge will hold strong for the next week or so and then flatten out or even retrograde W as mentioned by HPC ( http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html) ) this morning as we move toward a fall pattern. Should we see a return to an August 2004 pattern as mentioned by HPC things could get very interesting, particularly for our neighbors to the E. A strong trough is forecast to dive S in the Mid CONUS. We can see the beginning of this upstream with strong systems rotating N of the Great Lakes and "bowling ball systems" and attending fronts swinging down the E CONUS. We are nearing the true prime time for the Atlantic Basin according to climotology wise which peaks near September 12th and a sencondary milder peak around the middle of October. I will look for systems that will not recurve or perhaps form a bit closer to our own backyard (GOM/Caribbean) during this current MJO pulse. I can not rule out that a long tracking Cape Verde type system will not occur. We will have a long time to watch these type of systems. It is the little surprises closer to home that can sometimes be missed with the pattern that appears to be establishing it's self. Stay Safe and Stay Informed over the next 6 weeks.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)

Surface Analysis Maps...

24 Hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif)

48 Hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif)

72 Hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif)

I have no idea who you are or where you came from, but you are too smart for words. Thanks for an excellent post!
Suz

[fredhopkinsiii]

Tropics are again becoming a conversation piece this morning. We have a new INVEST 92L in the Atlantic Basin and several other depicted by models to become potential Invests over the next several days. The MJO pulse is currently over the EPAC and has certainly generated an uptick in activity there. We should have a while to watch the Atlantic Basin as the MJO pulse arrives in our Basin next week. One key factor early in the upswing of new activity will be the placement of the SE Ridge. My thoughts are that the ridge will hold strong for the next week or so and then flatten out or even retrograde W as mentioned by HPC ( http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html) ) this morning as we move toward a fall pattern. Should we see a return to an August 2004 pattern as mentioned by HPC things could get very interesting, particularly for our neighbors to the E. A strong trough is forecast to dive S in the Mid CONUS. We can see the beginning of this upstream with strong systems rotating N of the Great Lakes and "bowling ball systems" and attending fronts swinging down the E CONUS. We are nearing the true prime time for the Atlantic Basin according to climotology wise which peaks near September 12th and a sencondary milder peak around the middle of October. I will look for systems that will not recurve or perhaps form a bit closer to our own backyard (GOM/Caribbean) during this current MJO pulse. I can not rule out that a long tracking Cape Verde type system will not occur. We will have a long time to watch these type of systems. It is the little surprises closer to home that can sometimes be missed with the pattern that appears to be establishing it's self. Stay Safe and Stay Informed over the next 6 weeks.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)

Surface Analysis Maps...

24 Hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif)

48 Hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif)

72 Hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif)


This is an old thread but the links are interesting because they seem to include still current graphics.

It's one that got me interested in
El Nino/La Nina, PDO/AMO and the 60 year cycle, the recent Solar Minimum, the Accumulated Cyclonic Energy Index….and the invest 92L & 2010 Season

ACE, La Nina, PDO/AMO and the 60 year cycle occurred to me with 92L

Ticka I think this is a link I got from you back in June - it interested me going into the season but now I'm seeing that "The ACE Index" is the lowest it's been in 30 years?

I thought I also saw someplace that the shift to La Nina occurred back in May or June?
http://ldctstormchaser.blogspot.com/2010/06/african-wave-train-related-to-ace.html (http://ldctstormchaser.blogspot.com/2010/06/african-wave-train-related-to-ace.html)