TROPICAL STORM GASTON

[jeffl]

Tropical depression forms off the SE US coast.

Tropical storm watches will be issued at 500pm for the coastal areas of SC, GA, and maybe a small part of NC.

Advisories will begin at 500pm

[Coriolis]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN (AL072004) ON 20040827 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040827 1800 040828 0600 040828 1800 040829 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.6N 78.0W 30.9N 78.3W 30.6N 78.8W 30.8N 79.1W
BAMM 31.6N 78.0W 31.3N 78.3W 31.3N 79.0W 31.8N 79.4W
A98E 31.6N 78.0W 31.5N 77.8W 31.5N 78.0W 31.9N 77.9W
LBAR 31.6N 78.0W 31.1N 78.4W 31.2N 79.2W 31.6N 80.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040829 1800 040830 1800 040831 1800 040901 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.2N 78.9W 32.3N 77.0W 34.1N 74.5W 35.4N 70.7W
BAMM 32.7N 79.1W 35.3N 77.2W 38.4N 73.1W 40.3N 65.6W
A98E 32.7N 77.4W 33.9N 74.8W 36.5N 71.3W 41.5N 63.0W
LBAR 32.5N 81.2W 35.2N 80.9W 39.1N 77.3W 45.1N 66.2W
SHIP 53KTS 65KTS 66KTS 60KTS
DSHP 53KTS 35KTS 33KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.6N LONCUR = 78.0W DIRCUR = 135DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 32.0N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 131DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 32.1N LONM24 = 78.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[robinsonfirstaid]

000
WONT41 KNHC 271818
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...AND POSSIBLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD BY SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

PICTURES TO FOLLOW!!!

[jeffl]

Tropical depression number 7 sitiing off the US SE coast about 135 miles SE of Charleston, SC. The depression looked fairly well organized this afternoon, but has since lost most of its deep convection. This is likley the daily dirunal cycle and convection should flare up late tonight. The depression has moved little this afternoon and should move very little for the next 24 hours.

Track:

NHC suggest a small W motion Saturday then a turn to the NW and N with a landfall along the middle SC coast Sunday. Given the weak steering flow I see little movement through midday Saturday with maybe a slight westward motion Saturday PM as the ridge builds ENE of the system. A trough over the central US should begin to influence the system and move it N and inland on Sunday.

Intensity:

Earlier today I thought NHC may be on the lower side of the intensity forecast, but given the organizational trend this evening, they may be on the right track. It appears some weak NW shear may be impacting the system and it is likley drawing in drier air from the inland locations to its north and west. However, it is sitting over the Gulf stream and as we saw with Alex systems can rapidly develop in this region.

Impacts:

Given the current forecast of a 40kt tropical storm at landfall, little wind damage should be expected. The main threat will be extreme rainfall amounts near and to the right of where the center crosses the coast. The slow forward motion could yield totals upwards of 15-25 inches over SC and NC thorugh early next week producing devastating flooding. Storm surge will be very minimal and likely only near and to the area just right of the center (1-2 ft). The surge will also be slightly higher around the heads of NW facing bays and inlets and the mouths of creeks and rivers.

The inmpacts are based on the current track forecast and intensity forecast from NHC. It should be noted that some intensity forecast models make the system a 60kt (strong tropical storm) by early Sunday, and this is a possibility. Everyone in the tropical storm watch area should check prepardness supplies although this has likely already been well rehearsed this season along the NC and SC coast.

Jeff Lindner

[StingRay]

You know, we CAN have TOO much of a good thing. I can barely keep up with Frances, not to mention these two new babies.....

[windy]

The depression is over warm sea surface temperatures and is showing good anticyclonic outflow...especially to the southeast. Thus... gradual strengthening is expected until landfall. The intensity forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm by 24 hr and reach a peak intensity of 40 kt at landfall. There is a chance the system could get stronger than forecast if it stays offshore longer than currently forecast.


If it does stay offshore it could be stronger than forecasted. This does bare watching. Also theirs another low pressure sitting near Bermuda that has a chance to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. The tropics does bare watching. Hmmmmm looks like the worst isn't over yet IMHO.

[StingRay]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 280535
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH
FLORIDA.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
BUT A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION
WOULD BRING THE DEPRESSION CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...31.3 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[StingRay]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 280227
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS REMAIN NEAR 25 KT.
HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER SYMMETRIC WITH SOME BANDING AND
A LATELY INCREASING BUT NOT TOO WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...THE SHIPS AND
GFDL MODELS CALL FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 40 KT IN 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH FORECASTS THE WINDS TO 52 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL AND A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.

THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR
ON THE CHARLESTON OR WILMINGTON RADARS. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE AT 00Z IS AN UNCERTAIN 150/02 AND AN UNCERTAIN 180/02 AT
03Z. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A
CONTINUED VERY SLOW MOTION FOR A DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY TURNS WESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES. AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS INDICATED AFTER 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GENERAL SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT THAT THE LANDFALL TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 31.3N 78.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 31.2N 78.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 31.6N 78.9W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 32.7N 79.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 33.8N 78.9W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0000Z 36.0N 77.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 39.0N 72.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0000Z 42.0N 62.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[StingRay]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281130
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

.....TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH
FLORIDA.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT IS
EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...31.3 N... 78.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA/BEVEN

[StingRay]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 280847
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM CHARLESTON SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER IN A CYCLONIC CURVED BAND. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
2.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THEREFORE...THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY FORCE
THE CYCLONE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND STEER THE CYCLONE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 31.2N 78.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 31.3N 78.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 31.5N 79.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 32.2N 79.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 80.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0600Z 34.6N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0600Z 39.0N 70.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0600Z 42.5N 60.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[windy]

on either system. But I will in just a few seconds to find out what's happening. See ya later.

[StingRay]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GASTON...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO FERNANDINA
BEACH FLORIDA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING WESTWARD. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF GASTON NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE GASTON THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF GASTON.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.4 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[StingRay]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 281434
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVEN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...WITH A CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPED HALFWAY AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB. THE
DEPRESSION IS THUS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GASTON WITH 35 KT
WINDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WESTWARD DRIFT...270/2. STEERING CURRENTS
ARE CURRENT WEAK. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE STORM...
FOLLOWED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...FOLLOWED IN ABOUT 36-48 HR BY
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN ACCELERATION. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD
ON THE SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...
AND THEN SOMEWHAT SLOWER THEREAFTER.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER GASTON AT THIS TIME...AND THE SHEAR IS
LIGHT. THUS...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL...
WITH THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF 50 KT BEING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
STRONGER SHIPS AND THE WEAKER GFDL. GASTON SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL...THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
SLOW MOTION DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS ALONG THE TRACK OF GASTON.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 31.4N 78.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 31.5N 78.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 32.1N 79.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 32.8N 79.8W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 30/1200Z 33.9N 79.2W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1200Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/1200Z 40.0N 68.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 02/1200Z 42.5N 59.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[jeffl]

60kts at flight level and 59kts in the N semi circle. Onbaord radar shows good banding. I suspect a significant increase in winds at 500pm and the possible issuance of Hurricane watches

[stormy]

Ok what is this a pick on the Carolina's and Florida this year. And now there seem to be a strenghting of Gaston. scary

[jeffl]

I cannot believe this will be their 3rd tropical system this season and like the 6-7th over the last 5 years. Amazing.

[StingRay]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281737
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

...GASTON DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD...RECON APPROACHING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO FERNANDINA
BEACH FLORIDA.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING WESTWARD. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF GASTON NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL REACH GASTON WITHIN
THE HOUR.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF GASTON.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.3 N... 78.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[StingRay]

WTNT32 KNHC 282353
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

...GASTON GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

AT 745 PM...2345Z...A HURRICANE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO FERNANDINA
BEACH FLORIDA.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS NOW DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF GASTON NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND GASTON
COULD BE A HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FT ABOVE
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNED AREA. DANGEROUS HIGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
WARNED AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF GASTON.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...31.5 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[StingRay]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 282345
TCUAT
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

AT 745 PM...2345Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA AND FROM NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

REPORTS FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT GASTONS MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH
AND GASTON COULD LIKELY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING
THE COAST LATE SUNDAY. COMPLETE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN AN
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT 8 PM EDT.

LAWRENCE

[jeffl]

Recon reporting a partial eyewall with it closed to the S and SW. Winds now up to 65mph and Hurricane Warnings issued.

Persons in the Hurricane Warning area should rush preparations to completion. Follow instructions given by local emergency managment agencies.

As I mentioned yesterday, Gaston has sat over the warm Gulf Stream and intensified fairly quickly. We will now likley face a hurricane along the SC coast late Sunday.

Given that the system still has another 12-18 hours over the warm water we could see a 75-80mph hurricane come ashore.

Track Forecast:

Gaston has moved very little today, but the recon has fixed a slight NW motion this evening indicating the ridge to the N and E has finally given the system a push. I suspect a track to the NW tonight and then N on Sunday with a landfall along the upper SC coast. This system is fairly small, so the impacts should be right near the center and about 45 miles or so to the right of where the center crosses the coast. I think the landfall point may be slightly right of the NHC track forecast.

Intensity:

As feared, Gaston has intensified over the warm Gulf stream and conditions should remain favorable through landfall. I would not at all be surprised to see a 75-80mph hurricane at landfall. The intensity is tightly related to how much longer Gaston remains over the open waters. I suspect another good 6-12 hours for intensification.

Impacts:

A strong tropical storm and weak category 1 hurricane do about the same damage: broken windows, downed power lines, downed trees. This system will be just a little weaker than Charley when it moved across the Carolinas. The surge impact will be greatest to the right of where the center crosses the coast. Heights of 2-5 feet can be expected with higher surges in the inland bays and along the mouths of rivers and creeks. The slow motion will give the surge time to build along the coast and throughout the inlets.

Rainfall still remains the largest threat as the area is already saturated. A slow moving tropical system has the potential to produce devastating flooding, and this is just that. Rainfall of 15-25 inches is possible along and to the right of the track this includes most of E SC and all of E NC.

Hopefully we can get the thing inland before it intensifies to much more.

Jeff Lindner

[StingRay]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 290230
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED 60 KT
WINDS AT 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND
MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB AND ALSO REPORTED A 35 N MI
DIAMETER EYE WITH SOME OPEN AREAS. BOTH CHARLESTON AND WILMINGTON
RADARS SHOW AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE EXCEPT OPEN TO THE SOUTH. THE WIND
SPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON THE ABOVE. WITH LIGHT
VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING
GASTON TO ABOUT 65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/03 BASED ON RECON...RADAR AND SATELLITE
FIXES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE SAME SCENARIO OF A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER...
THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ALSO FASTER IN
AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.

RECON OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE RADIUS OF 35 KT WINDS IS ONLY ABOUT
50 N MI OR LESS IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADII EAST OF THE CENTER ARE
FORECAST TO EXPAND TO 75 N MI AS GASTON MOVES NORTHWARD.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 31.7N 79.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 32.3N 79.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 33.6N 79.7W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 30/1200Z 35.1N 79.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/0000Z 36.7N 77.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 70.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/0000Z 45.0N 59.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 03/0000Z 47.0N 46.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[StingRay]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 290838
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

...GASTON CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HR. SINCE IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PRECISELY
PREDICT THE PATH OR INTENSITY OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
THROUGHOUT THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LITTLE
RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA IS DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF GASTON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 70
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH GASTON.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...32.5 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EDT AND 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[StingRay]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 290834
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GASTON IS VERY CLOSE
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z FROM TAFB
AND AFWA WERE 55 KT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB. THE NWS/CHARLESTON RADAR
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL...BUT ONLY A
MODEST WARM SPOT IS APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED
ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60
KT. I SEE NOTHING TO PREVENT GASTON FROM REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE HOURS REMAINING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS 65 KT AT 12 HOURS...GASTON SHOULD ALREADY
BE INLAND BY THAT TIME. I SUSPECT THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WILL
BE A LITTLE HIGHER...PERHAPS AROUND 70 KT.

GASTON HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH AS EXPECTED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW 350/6. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY
NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THE WESTERLIES...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE FASTER NORTHWARD
MOTION ALSO SUGGESTS THAT GASTON MAY PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GASTON SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED IN THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 32.5N 79.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 33.5N 79.6W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/0600Z 35.0N 79.4W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 30/1800Z 36.7N 78.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/0600Z 38.5N 75.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/0600Z 43.0N 66.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE

[jeffl]

Isle of Palms--70kts
Copper Airport--59kts
Cappers Island--53kts

We are getting gust up and over hurricane force, but nothing sustained at 75mph.

Radar and satellite presentation appeared more like a minimal hurricane at landfall, however the southern eyewall was open.

The threat is now the very heavy rainfall, although Gaston is moving slightly faster than expected and may limit totals to 10-17 inches along its track.

As Gaston moves inland and then NE and becomes extratropical attention turns to increasingly dangerous Frances.

[StingRay]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 291436
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

...GASTON INLAND AND WEAKENING...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO
LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA. ALL OTHER WARNINGS ARE
DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH AND A NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY AND OVER NORTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS GASTON
CONTINUES MOVING OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE
HEADS OF RIVERS IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH GASTON.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...33.2 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[StingRay]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 291426
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

GASTON MADE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF MCCLELLANVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA
AROUND 14Z. WSR-88D VELOCITY DATA INDICATED THAT IT WAS JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WOULD VERY LIKELY HAVE
BECOME A HURRICANE IF IT HAD A FEW MORE HOURS OVER WATER. THE
STORM SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN NOW THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND...BUT IT
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH AT 7 KT. A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT...WITH
ACCELERATION...IS FORECAST AS GASTON BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF
THE GREAT LAKES. BY 72 HOURS GASTON SHOULD HAVE LOST TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...AND IT IS EXPECTED BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 33.2N 79.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 34.3N 79.5W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/1200Z 35.9N 78.8W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0000Z 37.7N 77.2W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/1200Z 39.8N 74.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 01/1200Z 44.5N 64.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$

[windy]

to get gaston but only heavy rains and some wind in the afternoon on monay. Then the big monster Frances which comes close to the EC by sunday. Something to watch closely.

[StingRay]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 300006
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

CORRECTION...CHANGE THE WORD STORM TO THE WORD DEPRESSION IN SECOND
PARAGRAPH.

...GASTON WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED
FOR SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. INTERESTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES EAST OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...AND A NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH GASTON.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...34.2 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
A PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 PM...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2 AND WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KWNH.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[StingRay]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 292046
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

GASTON CONTINUES ITS TREK INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND IT SHOULD
BE MOVING INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE IS NOW
BARELY OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GASTON WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALONG/NEAR ITS PATH.

THE MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 360/7. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS
PREDICTED...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THEN GET ABSORBED INTO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...THE LARGER CIRCULATION
OF GASTON IS EXPECTED TO ABSORB TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IN THE 48
HOUR TIME FRAME.

SINCE GASTON SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND...THE REMAINING
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIKELY
BE DISCONTINUED IN A FEW HOURS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 33.9N 79.6W 35 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 30/0600Z 35.2N 79.2W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/1800Z 37.0N 78.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0600Z 39.5N 75.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/1800Z 41.5N 71.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/1800Z 46.0N 61.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$

[windy]

here in Virginia were getting heavy rain & wind. We have a watch until 8pm tonight. Every now & then it rains heavy & the wind picks ups then it dies down and picks right up again. It must be the way the remnants of Gaston is moving. Now we have Frances on our tail and possibly another TD will form. Looks like thing are heating up.