ticka1
07-03-2008, 11:17 AM
See below section on recently upgraded TD # 2 and 93L.
Fairly straightforward forecast through the 4th of July weekend given only minor changes in the upper level pattern. High PWS air mass will remain mainly along and S of I-10 where greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms will reside daily given morning surface heating. Chances may be more limited over the weekend as ridging to the west attempts to build eastward a tad.
Main concern this morning is the extended and what to do with potential NW Gulf of Mexico tropical low formation early to middle next week. GFS is very aggressive in developing a broad area of surface to mid level low pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico early next week and moving this system slowly N to NNW into SE TX and the coast bend resulting in very impressive QPF and likely flooding rains. EURO and other models are not as bullish with either any kind of surface feature nor the moisture pool and maintain more of an inverted trough. Very close watch is needed on this period given potential for 2.2-2.5 inch PWS to move into the coast and possible tropical system organization.
Tropics:
Atlantic tropics becoming active with TD # 2 and invest 93L
Tropical Depression # 2:
A much deserved applause to the global models this morning that correctly predicted the formation of a tropical cyclone in the far eastern Atlantic for the past 5 days and it has arrived as forecast. Never before has a tropical cyclone formed east of 34 W this early in the season.
Strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic has continued to become better organized and is now classified at TD 02. Quickscat overpass last evening showed 25-30kt vectors with a close low level center and since then a small ball of deep convection has been maintained over the center. Banding features are noted in the NE through SW quads…with some restriction of the outflow over the NW quad…likely due to dry stable Sarahan layer.
Models are in good agreement taking 02 along a WNW track for the next 2-3 days before it reaches a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge nearing 50-55W. CMC is by far the most to the west while the GFS and GFDL hurricane model turn the storm into the weakness. The latest NOGAPS keeps the system as an open wave tracking it almost due west toward the Caribbean Sea. So no reason to disagree with the global consensus a follow a track similar to the GFS and GFDL as long as the system intensifies.
Atmospheric conditions are surprisingly favorable so early in the season for development in this region with favorable upper level winds, above average SST’s and fairly deep moisture plume. SST’s will decrease along the track and then increase again after day 3. 02 will likely become TS Bertha within the next 24 hours and then slowly intensify to a strong tropical storm by days 4-5. It should be noted that SHIPS and GFDL hurricane intensity models make 02 a hurricane in 5 days.
Fairly straightforward forecast through the 4th of July weekend given only minor changes in the upper level pattern. High PWS air mass will remain mainly along and S of I-10 where greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms will reside daily given morning surface heating. Chances may be more limited over the weekend as ridging to the west attempts to build eastward a tad.
Main concern this morning is the extended and what to do with potential NW Gulf of Mexico tropical low formation early to middle next week. GFS is very aggressive in developing a broad area of surface to mid level low pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico early next week and moving this system slowly N to NNW into SE TX and the coast bend resulting in very impressive QPF and likely flooding rains. EURO and other models are not as bullish with either any kind of surface feature nor the moisture pool and maintain more of an inverted trough. Very close watch is needed on this period given potential for 2.2-2.5 inch PWS to move into the coast and possible tropical system organization.
Tropics:
Atlantic tropics becoming active with TD # 2 and invest 93L
Tropical Depression # 2:
A much deserved applause to the global models this morning that correctly predicted the formation of a tropical cyclone in the far eastern Atlantic for the past 5 days and it has arrived as forecast. Never before has a tropical cyclone formed east of 34 W this early in the season.
Strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic has continued to become better organized and is now classified at TD 02. Quickscat overpass last evening showed 25-30kt vectors with a close low level center and since then a small ball of deep convection has been maintained over the center. Banding features are noted in the NE through SW quads…with some restriction of the outflow over the NW quad…likely due to dry stable Sarahan layer.
Models are in good agreement taking 02 along a WNW track for the next 2-3 days before it reaches a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge nearing 50-55W. CMC is by far the most to the west while the GFS and GFDL hurricane model turn the storm into the weakness. The latest NOGAPS keeps the system as an open wave tracking it almost due west toward the Caribbean Sea. So no reason to disagree with the global consensus a follow a track similar to the GFS and GFDL as long as the system intensifies.
Atmospheric conditions are surprisingly favorable so early in the season for development in this region with favorable upper level winds, above average SST’s and fairly deep moisture plume. SST’s will decrease along the track and then increase again after day 3. 02 will likely become TS Bertha within the next 24 hours and then slowly intensify to a strong tropical storm by days 4-5. It should be noted that SHIPS and GFDL hurricane intensity models make 02 a hurricane in 5 days.