ticka1
05-13-2008, 08:10 AM
Incredible Tornado footage from Lawrence, AL of a EF 2 Tornado going through a parking lot. Tornado damage path was 9.6 miles
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peFOyiYVWm0 (https://webmail.kindermorgan.com/whalecoma45b56c0a051f3099c/whalecom0/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peFOyiYVWm0)
Active weather period shaping up for the area including severe weather and heavy rainfall.
Synopsis:
Large upper trough digging into the SW US with downstream sub-tropical flow established over TX. Water vapor loop shows what appears to be a vort max approaching the Baja/W coast of Mexico and moving NE at around 80kts…with the upstream upper trough located over extreme western Nevada. Cold front at the surface and gravity wave aloft is noted in WV images over N TX where surface low pressure is forming in the E TX panhandle. At the surface warm moist Gulf air mass has surged back into the region with PWs rising back into the 1.5 in range and surface dewpoints of 70 or greater at most reporting stations. Additionally smoke/haze from fires burning in southern Mexico/central America is spreading up the TX coastline and will result in hazy conditions by afternoon…should not be as bad as Saturday. Near tropical air mass from the W Caribbean Sea will reach the region overnight with dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 70’s and PWS climbing above normal and close to 2.0 inches….we know what that means….excessive rainfall.
***The following is highly dependent on meso scale boundaries and processes and great forecast uncertainty remains tonight through Thursday as small scale features will drive large thunderstorms complexes across the state.***
Large upper trough will remain parked over the SW US while cool front stalls over NW TX and sub-tropical flow provides a wealth of ripples. Feel the first event will be this evening and tonight as storms fire along the C TX dry line and move ENE into at least the northern ˝ of SE TX. Outflow boundaries will be produced and lay across the area on Wednesday.
Next disturbance should help fire off a new round of storms Wednesday along old outflow boundaries and once again along the C TX dry line during the afternoon. SPC has the entire area outlooked for Wednesday and is considering an upgrade to a moderate risk if local air mass remains juiced and is not worked over tonight by storms or as SPC put it “ a rogue MCS”.
Air mass will recover Wednesday evening awaiting next disturbance and main piece of energy Thursday morning. Majority of lift passes north of the area…however outflow boundaries may be generated and forced southward into the region sparking numerous storms. NAM and GFS show big QPF bullseyes over the ARKLATX back into E C TX where storms develop and train along a boundary. Very uncertain forecast by this period as convective developments today through late Wednesday will determine development on Thursday.
Heavy Rainfall Threat:
Given copious amounts of moisture that will be in place (PWS near the magic 2.0”) along with good low level Gulf inflow, slow moving surface boundaries, potential for cell training, and at times strong divergence aloft…the threat for heavy to excessive rainfall looks to be high. Main concern will be for a similar event to 5/5/08 where outflow boundaries becomes stalled and storms fire and train along the boundary with very high hourly rainfall rates. It is getting deeper into the warm season and rich tropical air masses can produce some big totals in short time periods. Basin wide amounts of 2-3 inches through Thursday look reasonable (1-2” across our SW zones…Matagorda Bay) although I would not be surprised to see a few 8-12 inch isolated totals over E TX.
Severe Threat:
Main threat appears to be large hail and wind damage along any MCS/bow echoes that form Wednesday or Thursday. Air mass will be fairly unstable by this afternoon and 850mb cap will slowly erode and possibly be broken by weak short waves in the noisy SW flow aloft. Feel the highest threat will come Wednesday and Thursday when large MCS may rake the area with more widespread wind damage…as noted above moderate risk may be needed on Wednesday.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peFOyiYVWm0 (https://webmail.kindermorgan.com/whalecoma45b56c0a051f3099c/whalecom0/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peFOyiYVWm0)
Active weather period shaping up for the area including severe weather and heavy rainfall.
Synopsis:
Large upper trough digging into the SW US with downstream sub-tropical flow established over TX. Water vapor loop shows what appears to be a vort max approaching the Baja/W coast of Mexico and moving NE at around 80kts…with the upstream upper trough located over extreme western Nevada. Cold front at the surface and gravity wave aloft is noted in WV images over N TX where surface low pressure is forming in the E TX panhandle. At the surface warm moist Gulf air mass has surged back into the region with PWs rising back into the 1.5 in range and surface dewpoints of 70 or greater at most reporting stations. Additionally smoke/haze from fires burning in southern Mexico/central America is spreading up the TX coastline and will result in hazy conditions by afternoon…should not be as bad as Saturday. Near tropical air mass from the W Caribbean Sea will reach the region overnight with dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 70’s and PWS climbing above normal and close to 2.0 inches….we know what that means….excessive rainfall.
***The following is highly dependent on meso scale boundaries and processes and great forecast uncertainty remains tonight through Thursday as small scale features will drive large thunderstorms complexes across the state.***
Large upper trough will remain parked over the SW US while cool front stalls over NW TX and sub-tropical flow provides a wealth of ripples. Feel the first event will be this evening and tonight as storms fire along the C TX dry line and move ENE into at least the northern ˝ of SE TX. Outflow boundaries will be produced and lay across the area on Wednesday.
Next disturbance should help fire off a new round of storms Wednesday along old outflow boundaries and once again along the C TX dry line during the afternoon. SPC has the entire area outlooked for Wednesday and is considering an upgrade to a moderate risk if local air mass remains juiced and is not worked over tonight by storms or as SPC put it “ a rogue MCS”.
Air mass will recover Wednesday evening awaiting next disturbance and main piece of energy Thursday morning. Majority of lift passes north of the area…however outflow boundaries may be generated and forced southward into the region sparking numerous storms. NAM and GFS show big QPF bullseyes over the ARKLATX back into E C TX where storms develop and train along a boundary. Very uncertain forecast by this period as convective developments today through late Wednesday will determine development on Thursday.
Heavy Rainfall Threat:
Given copious amounts of moisture that will be in place (PWS near the magic 2.0”) along with good low level Gulf inflow, slow moving surface boundaries, potential for cell training, and at times strong divergence aloft…the threat for heavy to excessive rainfall looks to be high. Main concern will be for a similar event to 5/5/08 where outflow boundaries becomes stalled and storms fire and train along the boundary with very high hourly rainfall rates. It is getting deeper into the warm season and rich tropical air masses can produce some big totals in short time periods. Basin wide amounts of 2-3 inches through Thursday look reasonable (1-2” across our SW zones…Matagorda Bay) although I would not be surprised to see a few 8-12 inch isolated totals over E TX.
Severe Threat:
Main threat appears to be large hail and wind damage along any MCS/bow echoes that form Wednesday or Thursday. Air mass will be fairly unstable by this afternoon and 850mb cap will slowly erode and possibly be broken by weak short waves in the noisy SW flow aloft. Feel the highest threat will come Wednesday and Thursday when large MCS may rake the area with more widespread wind damage…as noted above moderate risk may be needed on Wednesday.