To pass the time - here is a poll on where Frances will go?

[ticka1]

Answer the question above - right now where do you think Frances will go?

[Coriolis]

The eye go through the Florida Straits at a Category 3, possibly hitting the Lower Keys. JMO

Jim

[ticka1]

Well I voted and I picked Florida and then into the GOM. Why do you ask - just because I have an eerie feeling about Frances. She's a woman hurricane and they seem to always wreck havoc along the GOM coastlines where ever she makes landfall.

[Windtalker]

I to think Florida and into the Gulf....Possible target Broward/Palm Beach Line

[StingRay]

I vote into the Gulf

[studscoe]

I Vote into the Gulf as the Bermuda high reestablishes itself.

[windy]

That Five day forecast is subject to error even the NHC stated that. Nothing is guaranteed as to where Frances will go. That track could change depending on the trough and other possibilities. I have a feeling Frances is going to track up the east coast while coming close to Florida. I do agree on one thing Frances does bare watching it is a major hurricane capable of much damage the 5pm discussion said it could be a cat. 5.

Frances is forecast to remain in a low shear environment and over increasing SSTs throughout the period. The SHIPS intensity model now makes Frances a 113 kt major hurricane in 48 hours...since the 'self-induced' vertical shear has decreased owing to the GFS forecast positons being closer to the official track forecast. There will likely be several fluctuations in the intensity over the next 5 days...but category four intensity seems likely some time during that period...and category 5 strength is even possible.


NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error; the average track forecast errors in recent years were used to construct the areas of uncertainty for the first 3 days (solid white area) and for days 4 and 5 (white stippled area). The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The intensity forecast chart and table below provide intensity forecast and intensity forecast uncertainty information

[robinsonfirstaid]

Well,

Right Now I'm Maybe Thinking Central FL. But Not Sure!! Maybe SC. NC. Border???

Thanks,
B. Robinson

[Canelaw99]

I voted crossing FL, then into the Gulf. I've had a gut feeling that this was a southern FL storm since day one, so I'm sticking to that.... :biggrin:

[amy]

I vote that Frances will hit the SE coast of Florida and make landfall somewhere between Kennedy Space Center and Ft. Pierce.

[windy]

Wherever Frances once to go. I'm not going to try an stop a hurricane as dangerous as her. I think she will be one that will be the talk of the town. NHC has been going crazy trying to track where she will visit. Now I'm glad that I don't hold that position. Whew no sweat on my head.Take care windy.

[lml53196]

Answer the question above - right now where do you think Frances will go?
florida and then into the Gulf of Mexico