ticka1
07-19-2007, 08:32 AM
Latest update from Jeff Lindner:
Another day no change as wet pattern remains locked in place and will continue for many days.
Area radars are already very active this morning as deep tropical moisture streams into the region from the SE. Rainfall this morning so far is already pushing 2.0-3.0 inches over Jackson and Calhoun counties with numerous thunderstorms extending from W Galveston Island to Matagorda County moving northward. PWS of 2.1-2.3 inches along with low trigger temperatures will result in numerous thunderstorms off and on through mid afternoon. By mid to late afternoon storms should have become numerous enough to overturn the air mass and stabilize things. Main threat will be heavy rainfall with high PWS and nearly saturated air column. Good news is that storm motions are moving at 15-20mph so unless training occurs rainfall totals should remain in the manageable 1-2 inch range.
No change Friday as area remains locked in moist SE flow up to 8,000-10,000 ft with PWS averaging around 2.0 inches…hence another round of thunderstorms. Forecast for the weekend shows hints of drier air and slight ridging building into the area however this will likely only raise trigger temps. into the low 90’s and delay thunderstorms until the afternoon hours instead of the mornings. Will continue with a 40-50% chance through the weekend.
Next Week:
Upper pattern repeats next week as yet another upper trough axis breaks off from the main flow and settles into TX. Deep slug of tropical moisture looks to arrive in the Mon-Tue timeframe and widespread rains will once again be expected. In fact long range models are showing little drying or typical summer weather for the next 14 days.
Tropics:
No areas of concern at the moment. Global model trends are suggesting the potential for some developments over the next two weeks as we begin to move into the active time of the Atlantic basin hurricane season.
Another day no change as wet pattern remains locked in place and will continue for many days.
Area radars are already very active this morning as deep tropical moisture streams into the region from the SE. Rainfall this morning so far is already pushing 2.0-3.0 inches over Jackson and Calhoun counties with numerous thunderstorms extending from W Galveston Island to Matagorda County moving northward. PWS of 2.1-2.3 inches along with low trigger temperatures will result in numerous thunderstorms off and on through mid afternoon. By mid to late afternoon storms should have become numerous enough to overturn the air mass and stabilize things. Main threat will be heavy rainfall with high PWS and nearly saturated air column. Good news is that storm motions are moving at 15-20mph so unless training occurs rainfall totals should remain in the manageable 1-2 inch range.
No change Friday as area remains locked in moist SE flow up to 8,000-10,000 ft with PWS averaging around 2.0 inches…hence another round of thunderstorms. Forecast for the weekend shows hints of drier air and slight ridging building into the area however this will likely only raise trigger temps. into the low 90’s and delay thunderstorms until the afternoon hours instead of the mornings. Will continue with a 40-50% chance through the weekend.
Next Week:
Upper pattern repeats next week as yet another upper trough axis breaks off from the main flow and settles into TX. Deep slug of tropical moisture looks to arrive in the Mon-Tue timeframe and widespread rains will once again be expected. In fact long range models are showing little drying or typical summer weather for the next 14 days.
Tropics:
No areas of concern at the moment. Global model trends are suggesting the potential for some developments over the next two weeks as we begin to move into the active time of the Atlantic basin hurricane season.