Rain Rain Rain - 070207

[ticka1]

Latest from JeffL:

Dangerous Flash Flood Threat for TX through 4th of July.

Floodgate operations continue on the Colorado and Brazos Rivers with flood flows being held behind controlled lakes.

Brazos River:

2 gates remain opened at Possum Kingdom Lake releasing 18,000 cfs and 14 gates are opened at Lake Granbury releasing 50,000 cfs. Flood flows entering the Brazos below Lake Granbury are resulting in downstream rises at Richmond and Rosharon toward and above flood stage. The river has crested and is falling at Bryan and should crest 5 feet below flood stage at Richmond late Tuesday and 5 feet above flood stage at Rosharon early Thursday. The river will then begin a secondary rise late this week as upstream water is released.

Colorado River:

Major flooding continues at Lake Travis with water 8-10 feet deep in homes. 4 flood gates remain in operation at Lake Travis releasing 30,000 cfs. 4 flood gates are open at Lake Buchanan resulting in 5 feet of flow over the Inks Lake spillway into Lake Travis. Lake Travis is now forecast to rise to near 700-701 ft by the middle of this week or 16 feet below the top of the emergency spillway. LCRA will not open any additional flood gates on Lake Travis unless the lake it forecasted to go above 710 ft.

The Bad News:

Threat for excessive rainfall returns to much of N, C and SE TX for the next 48-72 hours.

Mid and upper level low meandering around the plains for the last two weeks resided in SE KS this weekend where 18-22 inches of rain fell in about 18 hours Saturday morning. This low is now moving toward the SSW and is located NW of Fort Worth this morning. Forecast models are in good agreement that over the next 48 hours this low will move across C TX into SW TX by late on Wednesday. This places all of C and E TX under a favorable upper air divergent flow which will lift the incredibly moist air mass. GPS sounding this morning show near record PWS values along the middle TX coast of 2.45-2.55 inches and the result has been significant rainfall values over Victoria and Jackson counties this morning. Since 300am 7-9 inches of rain has fallen over portions of Victoria and Jackson counties.

As the closed low moves SSW multiple excessive rainfall events are possible over areas already flooded and over rivers already above flood stage. Potential is high for nocturnal core rainfalls near and to the east of the low which could produce 10-15 inches of rainfall in 6-10 hours. Given very moist profiles across much of the area hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches and possibly as high as 6-8 inches will be possible.

Expect current tropical MCS to rain itself out by early afternoon as is typical with such tropical type air masses. By late evening coastal speed convergence will fire off thunderstorms in the nearshore waters with them spreading inland after midnight. Will also need to watch out N and W for potential core rainfall event near the center of the low.

Concern continues for high rainfall totals below control lakes on the Brazos and Colorado rivers as was seen this morning. Rainfall falling below Waco on the Brazos and below Austin on the Colorado River will go uncontrolled into the river resulting in additional rises. These rivers are already close to flood stage and such rainfall could send them well above flood stage. Already this morning 2-3 inches fell on the Brazos below CLL and 5-6 inches fell on the Colorado below Wharton.

Simply put we are one excessive rainfall event away from really big problems on our area rivers. Given the pattern at hand, I would not be surprised if some location picked up 15-20 inches of rain in the next 72 hours. Due to the mesoscale nature of such extreme rainfall events determining where such totals will fall is impossible until storms develop. Given the track of the mid level low the areas along and W of I-45 seem to be favored.

[longtalltexan79]

We're watching the Colorado River closely...it's risen 6 feet since this time yesterday and it's already over bankfull...long way to go till flood stage, but it hasn't been this high in awhile...we got somewhere between 5 and 8 inches of rain last night and that is not good...

We're back in Bay City again so later this afternoon we're going to drive to the back of the neighborhood and see how high the river is there...

[ticka1]

Take pics if you can Lynndy.

[ticka1]

000
Fxus64 Khgx 030126
Afdhgx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
826 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 2 2007

.discussion...
Rain Chances Look To Remain On The High Side For The Next Several
Days As An Upper Level Low Resides Over Central Texas. Se Tx
Received Quite A Bit Of Rain Early Monday Morning...ranging From
Almost 4 Inches Near Sugarland To 8 Inches Near Morales. the Area
Can`t Take Much More Rain Without Having Flooding Issues And It Is
This Flood Potential That Is Becoming Rather Worrisome. none Of
The 18z Models Are Too Aggresive With Developing An Mcs Overnight
But The Situation Tonight Looks Similar To Last Night. There Is An
Approaching 35 Knot Speed Max At 250 Mb Placing Se Tx In A Lfq
And Upper Level Winds Remain Divergent. Pw`s Also Remain Aoa 2
Inches. The Speed Max Will Approach The Area Between 06-12z So
Would Expect Some Increase In Precip Coverage Around 06z And
Expanding In Coverage By Sunrise. have Contemplated Issuing A Flood
Watch For Most Of The Cwa (excluding Houston...trinity And Polk
Counties) Starting At 06z Through Tuesday 18z But Confidence On
Where The Heaviest Rain Will Fall Is Low. will Wait For The 00z
Nam Before Making Any Changes To The Current Forecast But Am
Leaning Toward Lowering Pops For The Remainder Of The Evening And
Raising Pops After 06z. Am Also Considering Issuing A Flood Watch.
Max Temps Have Warmed To Only 84 Degrees The Last 2 Days. This Is
9-10 Degrees Below Normal. Low Maximum Temp Records Have Been Set
At Iah On The 1st And 2nd. 43

[archergirl66]

This just in from Jeff:



Models depict a flash flood threat tonight for SE TX.

12Z runs of GFS and NAM both show extensive MCS formation over the region tonight W of I-45 and E of a line from Matagorda Bay to College Station. Models are producing extremely high rainfall totals and concern is growing that some portion of the area may experience an excessive rainfall event late tonight in Wednesday.



Vort lobe over SC TX is expected to round the eastern edge of upper low over WC TX and interact with moisture tongue feeding northward W of I-45 where PWS of 2.25-2.45 inches reside. GFS and NAM are in good agreement with strong convective development after midnight near Matagorda Bay and then rapidly expanding this development inland toward College Station and Huntsville. Weakening of old Gulf MCS should make low level jet formation favorable into the region by late evening transporting deep moisture and unstable air mass across the region. Pressure falls from Gulf MCS may have in fact produced some surface low pressure near KCRP and that center could move NNE into the SW portions of the area focusing extremely heavy rainfall.



Widespread 3-5 inches of rain may occur tonight W of I-45 with isolated totals up to 10 inches and possibly even higher. GFS and NAM are both producing large QPF bullseyes over the region. Very difficult at this time to determine where the greatest threat is and where convection will fire although the area bounded by Matagorda Bay, Houston, and College Station looks at greatest risk….with Jackson, Calhoun, Wharton, Matagorda, Brazoria, Colorado, and Fort Bend counties looking like good targets.



No real need to repeat what has been repeated the last several days….rainfall of this magnitude will no doubt cause some serious issues given swollen rivers and saturated grounds. We shall see who the unlucky folks are tonight.

[longtalltexan79]

This is not good...especially if it parks itself here over Matagorda County...we're leaving tonight again for Livingston so nobody will be here to watch the Colorado behind the house if it got too high...ugh I'm wishing it would just stop raining already! :timebomb:

[ticka1]

000
Fxus64 Khgx 032026
Afdhgx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
326 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 3 2007

.discussion...
Pcpn Not Quite As Widespread Today As It Has Been In Days Past But
The Break Has Been Welcome As It Has Given Us Some Time To Dry Out
Before The Next Round Tonight/tomorrow. Convection Over The Coast-
Al Waters Have Pretty Much Persisted All Day And We Are Now Seeing
Sfc Pressures Fall Offshore Between Crp/bro. Short Term Models Are
Painting A Very Wet Picture As All Of This Activity Starts To Move
Onshore And Then Up The Coast Overnight. having A Hard Time Chall-
Enging This Scenario Given The Proximity Of The Upper Low/slightly
Higher Pws Just Offshore/developing Sfc Low Over The Lower/mid Tex
Coast. As Such Will Keep Highish Pops In Place Areawide Along With
The Ffa Over The Sw Counties Tonight Into Tomorrow. Confidence Has
Taken A Hit Today With What Has (or Has Not) Transpired But Models
Hard To Ignore With The Possible Mcs/heavy Rain Formation Tonight.
As The Upper Low Continues To Move Off To The Wsw Its Influence On
Our Wx To Also Wane. A Trend Of Decreasing Pops Still In Order Be-
Ginning Thur And Then On Through To Sat. Extended Guidance Remains
A Bit Shaky With The Final End Game Concerning This Upper Low. Gfs
Keeping With Its Earlier Ideas Of Hanging On To This Feature As It
Returns Back Into/stays In The State Through Early Next Week...and
Helping To Keep Things Somewhat Unsettled For These Regions. Ecmwf
Solution Still The Drier Of The Two As It Tries To Build The Upper
Ridge Over Our Cwfa From The East. Of Note With Its Latest Run The
Ecmwf Does Show An Upper Level Weakness Area In/near The Tx/ok Pan
Handles For The Weekend. At Any Rate...either/both Of These Models
Should Bring About The Return Of A More Typical Summertime Pattern
For Se Tx - Widely Sctd Mainly Aftn/eve Tsras Along The Seabreeze.
41

[ticka1]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
905 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 3 2007

.discussion...
00z Soundings Show Pws Around 2.05 Inches. 850 Mb Dew Pts Are
Between 15-18 C And 700 Mb Dew Pts Are Between 5-7 C. Satellite
Derived Winds Show 250 Mb Winds Broadly Divergent. Khgx Vwp
Supports 850 Mb Winds Of 20-25 Kts So Inflow Not Much Of A
Problem. New Guidance Has Not Arrived...but Ooz Upper Air Data
Supports Heavy Rain Overnight. Nam And Gfs Differ Significantly At
850 Mb. The Gfs Develops An 850 Low And Moves It North Just West Of
Houston Overnight. The Nam Is Much Weaker With The 850 Wind Field
And Takes A Broad Circulation North Over Central Texas. Neither
Model Has A Good Handle On The Current Precip Shield. The 4 Km Wrf
Is The Only Model To Have A Handle On The Current Precip And Will
Continue To Accept The Wrf Soln. So Heavy Rain Should Develop In
The Two Tiers Of Counties Near The Coast With Periods Of Heavy
Rain Between Midnight And 8 Am. It Looks Like Widespread 2 To 3
Inches With Some Isolated Totals Between 6 And 8 Inches. Will
Probably Send Another Update Once 00z Model Data Arrives. 43

[longtalltexan79]

Well it looks like it did decide to park itself over Matagorda County and dump 6-8 inches so far...that is worrisome especially since the radar looks like it doesn't want to stop anytime soon and is pretty much stationary... :/

[ticka1]

000
Fxus64 Khgx 041558
Afdhgx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
1058 Am Cdt Wed Jul 4 2007

.update...
Last Update This Morning Should Be Out For Increased Rain Chances
Mainly South Of I-10 But Increased Areas North Of I-10 To 80
Percent As Well. main Concern Continues To Be The Northward
Progression Of Convection From Offshore. This Seems To Be Rather
Slow But Could Push More Onshore This Afternoon. a Jet Streak
Continues To Push East Along The Rio Grande Around The Upper Low
Over S Tx. should This Completely Rotate Around The Low...may See
More Forcing For Convection During The Late Afternoon And Night
Time Hours. The Rest Of The Forecast Will Be Evauated And Changes
Made For The Afternoon Package. May Have To See If Flood Watch
Needs To Be Extended Overnight.

[ticka1]

The overnight winner was....Matagorda County with 6-8 inches of rain so far this morning.



Flash Flood Watch in effect until 400pm for the entire area and may need extending into Thursday.



Gulf MCS has been stationary this morning from Matagorda Bay to about 40 miles S of Galveston where 4-8 inches of rain has fallen. MCS has shown little attempt since 400am of moving northward as it is anchored in a favorable low level flow regime just off the coast. Expect the complex to slowly weaken and shift SSW with time with a large area of light to moderate rain falling over most of SE TX through mid afternoon. Problems already ongoing in Matagorda and Jackson counties may worsen will addition of moderate rains through mid afternoon and Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for these two counties. Additional rises can be expected on the Tres Palacios, Navidad, Lavaca rivers and West Mustang and East Mustang Creeks.



Pesky upper low which has been meandering around the state for the past 3 weeks is located near SAT this morning and moving slowly toward the SW. Models now are singing a slightly different tune with the upper low and instead of burying it Mexico return it NNE into NW TX while weakening by early next week. This keeps the area in a moist pattern through the weekend although rain chances should be much lower. Will have to see what happens as what was suspected yesterday about the ridge gaining control, or lack of, may in fact be what transpires.

[ticka1]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
235 Pm Cdt Wed Jul 4 2007

.discussion...
Latest Radar And Satellite Trends Show Some Weakening Of
Thunderstorms Offshore With Warming Cloud Tops On Ir Satellite
Imagery. Upper Low Remains Parked Over S Tx And Does Not Seem To
Want To Budge. Water Vapor Imagery Shows A Jet Streak Coming Into
The Low Through The Rio Grande Valley And Possible This Could
Help Keep The Upper Low In Place Over Tx. Short Range Forecast
Models Are Still Having A Tough Time With The Evolution Of This
System. Since The Upper Low Seems To Be More Convectively Driven
On The Mesoscale...doubt Any Synoptic Feature Will Do Much To
Move The Low. Given The Gfs Tendency To Place The Upper Low Where
Convection Occurs...this May Be The Solution To Go With For The
Forecast Over The Next Couple Of Days. As Such...thunderstorm
Chances Were Increased For Tonight Into Thursday As Well On
Friday. Possible That Higher Pops May Be Needed On Friday If The
Upper Low Continues To Meander Over Much Of Tx. Deep Moisture
Remains In Place With Precip Water Values Above 2 Inches Across
The Area. Looks Like This Trend Will Continue Through Friday As
Well. The Flash Flood Watch Was Extended To 23z Thu Given The
Potential For Heavy Rainfall Through The Period. Rainfall Rates
Of An Inch Or More An Hour Will Have The Potential For Flash
Flooding Given Already Saturated Grounds Through The Last Week.
Temperatures For Tomorrow And Even Friday Look To Be Below Normal
Given The Cloud Cover And Rain.

Extended Forecast Is A Bit More Convoluted Since There Is Quite A
Bit Of Uncertainty Surrounding The Track Of The Upper Low. Should
The Upper Low Stick Around Which Is Possible...rain Chances Will
Continue To Increase Over The Weekend. For Now...longer Range
Models Have The Upper Low Weakening Which Will Lower Rain Chances
To The Typical 20-30 Percent Of Afternoon Storms. Still The Gfs
Is Quite Content To Keep The Upper Ridge Over The Southern
Rockies And Four Corners Region Into Next Week. Weak Nw Flow
Aloft May Allow For A Shortwave To Become Cutoff Again Over Tx.
Suspect This Pattern May Stick Around For Next Week Which Would
Suggest Higher Pops Will Be Possible. For Now Mainly 30 Percent
Rain Chances Look Reasonable Given The Uncertainty Of The
Forecast. Given Less Cloud Cover...temperatures Should Rebound
Back To Normal With High Temps In The Lower 90s.

[ticka1]

The latest from the NWS:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 050230
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
930 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

...DANGEROUS HEAVY RAIN EVENT DEVELOPING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.UPDATE...
WILL RAISE POPS AONG THE COAST AS MOISTURE AXIS LIES ALONG THE
COAST AND THERE IS SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE SERVING AS AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR RAIN. MOISTURE FETCH EXTENDS FROM BAY CITY TO
EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRAINING RAIN IS
EXPECTED. WILL FRESHEN THE FLOOD WATCH AND PROBABLY INCREASE RAIN
AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. 43

&&

.DISCUSSION...

[longtalltexan79]

Aw man more rain for the Bay City area right now... I'm almost scared to go home tomorrow night!!

[ticka1]

Don't think I have seen a weather statement like that from the nws - kinda scary. Let's hope you can make it home Lynndy.

[longtalltexan79]

I'm watching the radar and a line of heavy rain is moving through that area right now...been getting flash flood warnings through weatherbug...ugh...I'm anxious to see how high the Brazos is...we have to go over it to get back there...

[archergirl66]

More good news :crazy-eyes: from Jeff:



More heavy rains fall overnight and area river respond.

SW counties pick up another 2-4 inches of rainfall overnight with widespread 2.0+ inches over metro Houston.

Rivers above Flood Stage:

Brazos, San Bernard, Navasota, Tres Palacios, Trinity, Lavaca, and Navidad.

Major flooding is now in progress on the Tres Palacios River at Midfield after overnight heavy rains.



Recession expected on the Brazos River at Richmond and Rosharon has yet to begin since heavy rains have fallen on the watershed in the last 3 days. The river is at a flat crest at Richmond and Rosharon with flooding of the low land flood plain in progress. Backwater flooding is in progress across large parts of Fort Bend and Brazoria counties with water levels up to the bases of flood protection levees around Sugar Land and New Territory. The river should begin to come down starting early Friday if no additional rain falls. Levels are within 3.0 feet of flooding homes in the Missouri City area.


Discussion:

Rains refuse to go away as pesky upper low remains parked over TX. Expectation of low moving into Mexico is all but gone this morning as forecast models have done a 180 and draw the low back into its N TX summer home. Could not be a worst forecast for river flooding as heavy rains will move back northward into areas already flooding and saturated. Upper ridge is just not gaining much ground over the area as I was suspecting the last two days. Should see scattered shower continue through the early afternoon and then taper to cloudy skies thereafter as air mass begin to recover form overnight MCS. Once again should see coastal develop late tonight spread inland during the early morning hours…yes just like the last 4 days. Hard to say if the heavy rains stay along the coast and offshore like Tuesday and Wednesday or spread inland like this morning.

Point is we a saturated and additional rains will run-off causing rises on already flooding watersheds. Additional widespread amounts of 1-3 inches with isolated amounts of 5-8 inches can be expected through noon Friday. Rainfall of this magnitude will not bode well for area rivers.

With the upper low moving back into NE TX this weekend SE TX will stay on the moist east side of the trough axis. Threat for rains will continue through the weekend although the hope is that they become more scattered with time.

Looking into the extended upper low should get caught and pulled E of TX early next week suggesting lower rain chances…but wait NW flow aloft looks to take control allowing KS MCS formation to reach into TX each night. We shall see.

Note: Corpus Christi has recorded its wetter July on record and it is only July 5th. The city has had over 12.14 inches of rainfall since the 1st.

[longtalltexan79]

Oh man make it stop!! Geesh! I just looked at the Colorado River and its risen to 31 feet now...we're going back home today and we have to go over the Trinity, San Jacinto, Brazos, and San Bernard, so instead of leaving late at night like we usually do to avoid traffic thru downtown we're going to leave early in case we run into any flooding problems...

Man I don't think I've seen it rain this much in awhile...I think TS Frances was the last time the rivers got this much action if I'm not mistaken...

:crazy-eyes:

[ticka1]

Be safe coming home Lynndy. Looks like the rain has dissipated but forecasted to reoccur again over night.

[archergirl66]

Looks like a new line is forming at the edge of Matagorda county and heading this direction:


http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/OneKm.aspx?location=USTX1029&animate=true&enlarge=true

[longtalltexan79]

Patricia - We'll be careful for sure...if it looks like it's too bad we'll just turn back around...better safe then sorry...after all 'turn around, don't drown'...


Gina - I've been watching that radar the past few hours...looks like its raining in Bay City again...

[ticka1]

Hubby just called me - I'm still at work - a tornado was spotted at the intersection of FM2100 and I-10 which is the Highlands exit. He called my parents and told them to take cover. I'm headed home right now - so if any hears anything please post it here.

Thanks,
Patricia

[longtalltexan79]

I saw that on the news! I immediatly thought of you guys there...hope all is okay...they showed some waterspouts off Galveston...the weather is so crazy!

[ticka1]

000
Fxus64 Khgx 060202
Afdhgx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
902 Pm Cdt Thu Jul 5 2007

.aviation...
With The Upper Low To The North Of Se Tx...there Looks To Be Less
Of A Chance Of Thunderstorms Tonight And Tomorrow Over The
Terminal Sites. However...the Nam And Gfs Both Indicated Mesoscale
Lift Mainly Over The Northwestern Portions Of The Area Overnight
Tonight. As Of 0130z The Best Convective Areas Have Been Just Off
The Texas Coast. The Water Vapor Satellite Loop Indicated A
Shortwave Trough To Be Entering The Houston Metro Area With
Another Shortwave Upstream Over Far S Tx. This Second Shortwave
May Be The One The Models Were Pinging On. That Said...brought
The Best Chances For Mvfr Ceilings And Restrictions To Visibility
Due Mainly To Showers Or Thunderstorms Between 04z And 08z At Cll
With Only A Mention Of Vcts Elsewhere During This Time Period. The
Remainder Of The Night Will See Mainly Vfr Conditions With A Hint
At Mvfr Due To Light Rain. Went With Only A Vcts Mention After
14z From I-10 South And 17z In The North Since The Convective
Activity Should Be Less With The Upper Low Moving Out Of The Area.

40

&&

.discussion...

[ticka1]

Latest from Jeff: Might be getting a little relief but ......'

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through this afternoon…should be allowed to expire at that time.

See below for hydro issues.

Discussion:

Upper low is finally starting to shift toward NE TX this morning and should gradually weaken and move out of the state on Saturday. However trough axis will remain over the state between high over the SE US and SW US and this means rain chances will now continue into the middle of next week and maybe for the foreseeable future. It is interesting to note that the rains began in the state on the 23rd of May and have yet to abate. In Harris County rain has fallen in the county on 24 of the last 23 days.

Convergence axis along the coast this morning is firing off training storms from near Freeport to High Island with flash flood warnings in effect. Rainfall since 600am has been on the order of 2-4 inches. This area should gradually weaken and shift ENE through midday before more showers and storms develop inland with heating. Storm motions are fast today however the threat for cell training is high and hence high rainfall totals remain possible.

After today the pattern should revert back to some attempt of normal summer weather with activity becoming heat driven. However concern remains as trough axis sets up over the state through the middle of next week. It is very possible that another short wave trough could dip out of the northern stream and cut off another upper low over the southern plains creating another serious flooding threat. At the moment will forego such worries until it looks likely and maintain 30-40% chances of afternoon storms through the next 5 days.

Hydro:

Brazos River:

The river has finally started its recession at Richmond however after a fall this weekend and secondary rise to near 44.0 ft is expected early next week as upstream releases reach SE TX. At these levels flooding from backwater will continue across Fort Bend County and this crest is about .5 of a foot higher than the crest yesterday and within about 2.0 ft of homes in Missouri City.

Colorado River:

River will continue to rise and crest late this weekend near 34.5 ft about 4.5 ft below flood stage. The river will hold at that level for several days.

San Bernard River:

The river rose above flood stage overnight and will remain above flood stage through the weekend

Tres Palacios River:

The river rose above flood stage Tuesday reaching major flood levels yesterday. The river is falling and should fall below flood stage later today.

Trinity River:

The river will rise to near flood stage and hold near that level for the next 1-2 weeks as upstream flows and release reach the area.

Addicks and Barker Reservoirs:

Both reservoirs are elevated with Addicks about 3.0 ft below impacting SH 6 and Barker about 2.5 ft below impacting Westhiemer Parkway.

Additional rainfall over the next several days will continue to prevent recessions on area watersheds and keep most of them near or above flood stage.

[archergirl66]

Enough's enough!! This is just crazy... everything was supposed to be coming to a halt today, finally, but I guess that was wishful thinking. It has been just pouring for hours, and now we have a "near-100%" rain chance for the rest of the day. :rolleyes2: And it looks like it is just going to keep training right over us. I wish I were home snuggled up in bed!

[ticka1]

Crazy it is...my yard is flooded and this time its not draining off any. At least we had a small break but i'm reading our chances have gone from 60% to 100% this afternoon. And they are talking of another low parking itself over us and bring rain - and more rain.

[longtalltexan79]

It's been raining here in Bay City for the better part of two hours...the lights have been going off and on because of the horrible lightning and it's fixing to start up again...the sky is DARK as the storms roll in and the wind is blowing...I'm fed up, I love storms, but this has reached the excessive stage and I'm tired of it...I want the sun back! :cussing:

[BaytownWeatherWatcher]

Crazy it is...my yard is flooded and this time its not draining off any. At least we had a small break but i'm reading our chances have gone from 60% to 100% this afternoon. And they are talking of another low parking itself over us and bring rain - and more rain.

Ditto on my backyard. I've been out there clearing the drainage, but the water just isn't moving. My guess is there is no place for it to go because of saturation. Good grief....another low? I hope nothing forms in the tropics and heads this way anytime soon. The ground is too saturated for anything tropical. But more rain??? Will we have a respite between now and the next round?:cry3:

[ticka1]

The forecast is calling for lower chances of rain for a couple of days but then again during next week the new low presssure moves in bring us more rain. I guess we will just have to monitor it.

CHec out the training rainshowers along HWY 59 - wow there is going to be some floooding there. These lines aren't moving very fast.

[BaytownWeatherWatcher]

Is there any connection between flooding rains and hurricane activity during a hurricane season?

[BaytownWeatherWatcher]

good site for high water closures, hurricane evacs, etc:
http://www.hcoem.org/

[ticka1]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/RadarImg/southplains.gif

[ticka1]

check out the radar looks like more rain out in san antonio austin area - wonder if it will move this direction.

Downtown and areas around had flooding - white oak and buffalo bayou are out of their banks.

[BaytownWeatherWatcher]

don't know. I'm wondering if the rain will stop for the weekend. and wondering how much more of this rain we can take.

[longtalltexan79]

Urgent - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx
444 Am Cdt Sat Jul 7 2007
Austin-brazoria-chambers-colorado-fort Bend-galveston-harris-
Jackson-liberty-matagorda-montgomery-waller-wharton-
Including The Cities Of...alvin...anahuac...angleton...bay City...
Bellville...brookshire...cleveland...columbus...co nroe...dayton...
Eagle Lake...edna...el Campo...freeport...friendswood...
Galveston...hempstead...houston...humble...katy... lake Jackson...
League City...liberty...missouri City...mont Belvieu...palacios...
Pasadena...pearland...pierce...prairie View...richmond...
Rosenberg...sealy...sugar Land...texas City...the Woodlands...
Tomball...weimar...wharton...willis...winnie
444 Am Cdt Sat Jul 7 2007


...flash Flood Watch In Effect Until 4 Pm Cdt This Afternoon...

The National Weather Service In Houston/galveston Has Issued A

* Flash Flood Watch For A Portion Of Southeast Texas...including
The Following Counties...austin...brazoria...chambers...
Colorado...fort Bend...galveston...harris...jackson...
Liberty...matagorda...montgomery...waller And Wharton.

* Until 4 Pm Cdt This Afternoon

* Showers And Thunderstorms In South And Central Texas Early This
Morning Are Expected To Expand Eastward And Into Southeast Texas
Today.

* The Ground Is Already Saturated Due To The Persistent Rainfall
That Has Occurred Over The Past Several Weeks. Additional
Moderate To Heavy Rainfall Will Quickly Runoff And Cause Flash
Flooding...especially On Urban Roadways...low Lying Areas...
Bayous...streams And Creeks. This Is Especially True Where Any
Training Storms...which The Upper Level Pattern Currently
Supports...happen To Occur. Expect Average Rainfall
Accumulations Around 1 Inch...with Localized 3 To 5 Inch Swaths
Where Any Training Heavy Rains Set Up.
A Flash Flood Watch Means Rapidly Rising Water Or Flooding Is
Possible Within The Watch Area. If You Are In The Watch
Area...check Preparedness Requirements...keep Informed...and Be
Ready For Quick Action If Flash Flooding Is Observed Or If A
Warning Is Issued.

Do Not Drive Your Vehicle Into Areas Where The Water Covers The
Roadway. The Water Depth May Be Too Great To Allow Your Car To
Cross Safely. Vehicles Caught In Rising Water Should Be Abandoned
Quickly. If Your Vehicle Stalls...abandon It And Seek Higher
Ground Immediately. Rapidly Rising Water May Engulf Your Vehicle
And Its Occupants And Sweep Them Away. Move To Higher Ground.

[ticka1]

Okay everyone join me in singing at the top of your lungs - Rain Rain Go Away.....come back next month

I really think my depression right now has to do with all this rain and not seeing the sun.

[BaytownWeatherWatcher]

I know what you mean by the lack of sun. I heard yesterday that we have had 23 consecutive days of rain. That's a lot of rain.