Wintery Easter?

[BaytownWeatherWatcher]

I just looked at the Ch 11 forecast for this weekend....49 for a high on Easter???? What's this about?

[ticka1]

NWS Special Weather Statement:

...A WET AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEEKEND EXPECTED...

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SINK SOUTH AND SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEAR BROWNSVILLE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE RATHER TIGHT AND WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

CURRENTLY...THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO DISTINCT RAINY PERIODS. THE
FIRST RAIN EVENT WILL START EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. RAIN WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. THE SECOND RAIN EVENT WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WITH THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST. THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL
AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH THE CALENDAR SAYS IT IS APRIL...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO LIVINGSTON LINE COULD RECEIVE
A COLD RAIN...RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET...RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW OR ANY
COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE. AT THIS TIME...VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FAVOR A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SLEET. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR APRIL 7TH AND 8TH
AND THE FORECAST VALUES FOR THESE DATES.

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR SATURDAY APRIL 7TH

CURRENT RECORD FORECAST VALUES

IAH 55 DEGREES IN 1973 49 DEGREES
GLS 54 DEGREES IN 1939 55 DEGREES
CLL 58 DEGREES IN 1939 48 DEGREES

LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SUNDAY APRIL 8TH

CURRENT RECORD FORECAST VALUES

IAH 34 DEGREES IN 1939 36 DEGREES
GLS 38 DEGREES IN 1938 44 DEGREES
CLL 34 DEGREES IN 1938 34 DEGREES

[ticka1]

From Jeff Lindner - he's shocked too. Folks its going to get cold. Protect all your tender vegation and keep those pets warm. Back in the closet goes them flip flops and shorts.

I am at a loss for words this evening as a record breaking winter weather event is in the making for this weekend.

I honestly cannot believe I am about to write the following e-mail on April 5th.

Discussion:

Very cold arctic air mass will come southward over the next 24 hours returning the area to winter. Will go ahead and undercut guidance by at least 5 degrees and show highs only near 50 for Saturday…some will stay in the 40’s which will be not only daily but possibly monthly records. Onset of precip. Will be early Saturday as trough moves E from NW Mexico. Profiles and varies thickness factors along with 850mb temps. Suggest we must entertain the idea of a winter precip. mix Saturday night and Sunday along and N of I-10 and especially over our N counties.

850mb temps combined with partial thickness values and profiles from the GFS and NAM suggest a rain/snow mix or rain/sleet mix starting late Saturday night N and spreading southward Sunday morning. Good news is that surface temps. Should remain above freezing unless greater drier air advection arrives allowing greater wet bulb cooling than expected. Hence any frozen precip. should melt on contact with the ground.

Best threat of a snow/rain mix or change to snow is N of HWY 105 where surface temps. fall into the mid 30’s.

At this time since no accumulations are expect no watches or warnings will be needed. As with any winter weather forecast must will change over the next 24 hours and large forecast changes with P-types and temperatures should be expected.

Forecast:

Saturday: turning cloudy and much colder. Temps falling into the mid 40’s. A 70% chance of rain

Saturday night: cloudy and very cold with temps near steady in the mid to upper 30’s. An 80% chance of rain possibly mixed with sleet. Rain may change to snow N of HWY 105. No accumulation is expected.

Sunday: cloudy and cold with highs near 55. A 50% chance of morning rain possibly mixed with sleet.

[archergirl66]

I think Jeff's statements at the beginning say it all. :eek3: Looks like a pretty miserable weekend... bleh.

[ticka1]

Potential for historical weather event over TX this weekend

Heavy rains, coastal flooding, strong winds, and very cold temps. all on tap for the weekend.

Discussion:

Onset of late season cold arctic air mass will be later today as frontal boundary pushes into the region. Expect temps. to fall after midnight tonight and fall through the 40’s during the day on Saturday. Increasing pressure gradient between developing coastal low and massive arctic high will howl ENE winds across the Gulf on Saturday with gale conditions possible. Wind transport support coastal tidal build up and possible tides of 4.0-4.5 feet above normal by late Saturday which will cause overwash and coastal flooding.

Precip and P-type:

I cannot believe there is even need to discuss P-type issues in April

Intensity and depth of incoming cold air mass is very rare for April and historical P-type issues are at hand this morning across our northern counties. Rain should onset by early Saturday across the entire region ahead of weak short wave disturbance. However the main event will be late Saturday through Sunday. Coastal low develops and moves ENE up the TX coast with very cold air mass funneling into the region from the NNE. Profiles support rain mixed with sleet and snow possible from Saturday afternoon through about 300am Sunday morning north of a line from Columbus to Livingston. Surface temps. are forecast to remain above freezing, so what falls that is frozen should melt. Per NAM and GFS cross sections for IAH showing a sub-freezing layer above the surface about 1000ft thick suggest we could see some sleet mixed into the Houston area although at this time is unlikely. Any kind of frozen precip in early April in SE TX would be historic!!!

Rainfall Amounts:

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches can be expected with isolated amounts of 3-4 inches. Rainfall rates will be highest Saturday night when coastal tides will be highest and some minor flooding along the coastal will be possible from both sources. Widespread rainfall over already high rivers could cause rises above flood stage next week.

Wind:

Windy conditions will develop early Saturday as cold arctic high wedges into the area. Expect gale conditions to develop offshore late Saturday with sustained winds of 20-30mph inland and along the coast. Could see gust of 35-40mph along the coast overnight Saturday as the cold air spills across the warm nearshore waters.

Temps:

Enjoy today as we will not get back above 60 until Monday and much of the weekend will be spent in the 40’s even for highs. Record low maximums will likely fall both Saturday and maybe Sunday as this rare weather event unfolds. Will need to keep a very close watch on Monday AM as skies may clear allowing freezing temps. across the area. Freezing temps in April would be record breaking and damaging to freshly budded vegetation.

When combined with the strong winds it will feel very cold around the area on Saturday and Sunday.

Due to the historic nature of this event the models are having a difficult time of resolving the fine details as they are trending toward climo which will fail horribly in such a situation. Hence guidance is likely running a little too warm through the period and its P-types are likely incorrect.

Incoming air mass is similar to very cold outbreak in 1938 around the same time of year.

[longtalltexan79]

Wow, this weekend is going to suck...why couldn't it have held off a few days so we'd at least have a decent Easter?

I was loving the warm temps...being out in shorts and flip flops...now I have to pull my coat and jeans out to go shopping tomorrow! ugh!

[ticka1]

Lynndy have you moved up to Livingston yet? Stay warm. I had to dig all the coats, long sleeves and gloves out. Its going to be COLD.

[longtalltexan79]

Nope, I'm still down in Bay City...we've been going up there every week though and working on the place...

My mom is freaking out because we took alot of her tropical plants up there and now they are sitting out exposed...dad is going to go up there and try and cover them tomorrow...

[longtalltexan79]

Numerous reports of sleet and even snow from Huntsville to College Station

Heavy snow and sleet falling across N TX including Dallas and Waco .

Will extend threat of sleet/snow southward to I-10 corridor based on trends and reports of sleet in The Woodlands.



Discussion:



Rare and historic weather event underway over SE TX with current temps in the upper 30’s to low 40’s and frozen precip. falling. Radar shows bands of sleet and light snow mixed with rain along and west of I-45 with numerous reports from law enforcement of sleet and snow N of HWY 105. Aircraft ascents from KCLL are showing heavy icing just above the surface suggesting only a very small layer of above freezing temps right near the surface. Although frozen precip. is falling the ground is very warm and temps. remain above freezing resulting in no accumulation.

Mixed bag of winter precip. will continue overnight and spread southward as air column cools a little more. Wet bulb effects have just about ended across the area suggesting surface temps. will remain well above freezing and little to no accumulation is expected from heavy snow/sleet showers.

Further N and W of SE TX heavy snow ongoing near Waco has dropped temps. to freezing resulting in some accumulation. Most accumulation has been confined to grassy surface as roads remain very warm. Snow advisory and winter weather advisory have been issued to cover this development. May need a winter weather advisory for our N counties this evening should frozen precip. become more widespread and surface temps. lower a few more degrees.

Howling NE winds are piling tidal waters against the coast with tides running 1-3 feet above normal. Winds will increase toward gale force tonight and tides should peak around 2-3 feet above normal (below flooding threshold).

[ticka1]

Can we just say WOW - here it is April 7th and we are getting sleet and snow. Wonder if it will get down south of I-10?

Its cold out there - hovering in the upper 30's here. We got the heat on and all bundled up for this frigid outbreak.

[longtalltexan79]

I'm just amazed...

It's 38 here and holding steady...fixing to go out shopping so I've had to dig out my coat and gloves, lol Never thought I'd need them again until later in the year...

Hot chocolate sounds nice right about now!

[BaytownWeatherWatcher]

Anyone besides me feeling like putting up the Christmas tree and watching Polar Express? :santaclaus:

[ticka1]

LOL BWW - its cold. I'm ready for a pot of hot soup and hot cocoa. Has anyone seen any sleet or snow. Heard we might get another shot at it early tomorrow morning. My temp is right at 37 degrees. This is crazy.

[ticka1]

Houston's NWS warns of mixed precip tonight:

...mixed precipitation possible again tonight...

...minimal or no frozen accumulation expected on the roads...another strong upper level disturbance will be moving across southeast Texas overnight bringing widespread precipitation to the area. Forecast upper level temperatures are still supporting a possible mixture of rain...sleet and snow across northern portions of Southeast Texas. Any minor accumulations observed will be on cars... rooftops... trees... wood decks... vegetation and grassy areas. Since temperatures in the 70s and 80s had been the norm for quite sometime prior to this unusually strong late season front...roads and concrete have warmed up enough that frozen accumulations are not currently anticipated there. The only exception would be any remote bridges that are traveled infrequently that would be below the freezing mark. Motorists should still drive with extreme caution since roads will be slick and there will be areas of fog across the region.

[ticka1]

History is made as first accumulating snow ever in early April falls in SE TX .

Snow falling and accumulating over the N parts of SE TX .

2.0 inches reported on the ground by law enforcement and public over Houston and Trinity counties.

Winter Weather Advisory is issued through Sunday morning for these counties due to accumulating snow.

Discussion:

Winter storm continues to unfold over the area with 4.0 inches of snow recorded on the ground at Copperas Cove , TX and a few inches around Waco . Incredible accumulations of snow and sleet reported from College Station to Huntsville with sleet reported as far south as I-10. Radar shows heavy bright banding approaching Harris County and this is likely rain mixed with heavy sleet or even snow. Up N heavy band of snow extends from N of Austin to N of Huntsville and is moving E. Temps. at the surface are hovering in the mid to upper 30’s suggesting most of what is falling is melting, however where heavy snow is falling, it is falling faster than it can melt and is accumulating.

Roads are still clear in most areas however some icing is being reported N of SE TX.

Will go ahead and mention threat for sleet and snow mixed all areas except the coast for tonight given the profiles at hand and reports of P-types over the area.

Persons especially in the advisory area should be very aware of potential icing and accumulations overnight.

[BaytownWeatherWatcher]

I haven't seen sleet or snow today, but I wasn't outside in it either.

[Texas SpeedDiva]

I'd warned my boyfriend but did he listen? No did he complain when it started sleeting at his place in Coldsprings - Yes. At least we weren't up at my farm like the weekend before. It's west of Waco and got over 2 inches of snow.

Just curious? How many records from back in the 1930's were broken over the weekend??

[BaytownWeatherWatcher]

Hey Ticka,
Did you find out anymore info if there is a connection between cold in April and hurricane season?

[ticka1]

I'd warned my boyfriend but did he listen? No did he complain when it started sleeting at his place in Coldsprings - Yes. At least we weren't up at my farm like the weekend before. It's west of Waco and got over 2 inches of snow.

Just curious? How many records from back in the 1930's were broken over the weekend??

Texas SpeedDiva

Here is the latest email from Jeff - see for yourself - all the records that were broken.

Unprecedented weather weekend across the US and TX with historic sleet and snow from TX to FL.

150 temperatures records were set and every state east of the Rockies reported sleet and snow except MS.

See below for a list of the records broken over TX this weekend including the 3.4 inches of SNOW at Waco on Saturday.

Discussion:

Deep trough responsible for the record breaking cold over the weekend is lifting out with the surface cold retreating toward the east coast. Warm advection pattern will begin in earnest later today with dewpoints rising back to levels more representative of April. Incoming short wave over Mexico will aid lifting with warm advection process and may produce a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

Short wave passes east of the area late Tuesday with a significant warm up in store on Wednesday. Surface and 850mb winds go SSW and SW allowing very warm temps. to spread east off the higher terrain of Mexico. Models show mid to upper 90’s spreading eastward from the Rio Grande plains toward the coastal bend. Will go with mid to upper 80’s locally although a few places may push 90. Simply amazing after temps. Saturday at 400pm were in the upper 30’s and low 40’s and three days later we will be approaching 90.

Impressive storm system winds up over the southern plains Thursday and Friday with very windy conditions expected over the region. Air mass will become very unstable by late Friday afternoon given good surface heating and plenty of low level moistening. Expect Friday will be a heavy severe weather day across the plains and TX as dryline slices into a primed atmosphere. Expect strong to severe storms over the area Friday night as long as capping can be overcome.

Easter Weekend 2007 Records:

A testament to the intensity of what happened this weekend is clear in the climate records of S TX . Climate records go back to the late 1800’s and records fell this weekend that have stood since 1895. Over the rest of TX most of the records that fell were set during the cold outbreak of 1938…hence this was a historic event.

Brownsville : 43 (tied record low for April 7th, previous record held in 1895, 1936, 1939)
Brownsville : 39 (record low for April 8th). Only the 5th time since 1878 that the temp. has fallen below 40 in the month of April
Brownsville : 48 (record low max, old record 62 in 1936 and 1938)

San Antonio : 35 (record low, old record 1938)

Austin : 34 (record low)
Austin : 50 (record low max, old record 60 in 1964)

Abilene : 36 (record low max

IAH: 55 (record low max for April 8th)

College Station : 51 (record low max, old record was 58 in 1939)
College Station : 34 (record low, old record was 37)
College Station : Trace of SNOW (record snowfall for April 7th, latest snowfall on record)

Galveston : 41 (ties record low set in 1939)

Waco : 46 (record low max, shattered old record of 58 in 1916)
Waco : 3.4 inches of snow (daily snowfall record for April 7th)
Waco : .1 inch of snow (daily snowfall record for April 8th)

Snowfall records:

Snow and sleet had never fallen in SE TX in April until this weekend. 2.0 inches of snow accumulated on the ground in Houston and Trinity counties late Saturday. It is rare enough to get snow of this magnitude even in January much less on April 7th. Snow and sleet was reported at many locations N of I-10 with accumulations mainly confined over the Hill Country into NC TX where 4.0 inches fell at Copperas Cove , TX eastward to Waco and then ESE into SC LA. Sleet and snow was reported at Lake Livingston , Lufkin , Huntsville , and Conroe . Rain mixed with sleet was reported in Spring, The Woodlands, Cypress , Katy, and Missouri City late Saturday.


Jeff Lindner

[ticka1]

Hey Ticka,
Did you find out anymore info if there is a connection between cold in April and hurricane season?

Just a few examples:

2004: Major snow event for S and SE Texas = Hurricane Rita

1997: Ice Storm= 1998 two near misses with TS's Charley and Frances

1989: Snows in Houston= Hurricane Jerry...**although the hurricane struck two months prior to the snow.

1983: Snow in Houston= Hurricane Alicia

1899: Galveston bay freezes= The Great 1900 storm

[Texas SpeedDiva]

Ticka - thanks for the info on the broken and tied records.

I recall reading some articles on the relationship of cold winters and snow at odd times and in odd places and hurricane seasons. I'll see if I can track down any of them. For some reason I keep thinking there were refernces to the 1930's and strong hurricane seasons then.