TROPICAL STORM FRANCES !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! [Archive]

jeffl

08-24-2004, 04:34 PM

96L looking fairly well organized this evening with banding north of the center and some convection near and to the north of the center. Quickscat overpass showed 30kt winds, but the scan missed the actual system to the east. Upper level outflow appears reasonable to the north of the system. but may be slightly restricted to the SE.

96L is currently embedded in the deep easterly flow on the south side of the Bermuda high and should track to the W to WNW for the next 48 hours. After 48 hours, model guidance splits between 2 camps, with one taking the system more towards the islands, and the other turning the system NW and N into the central ATL. I perfer to await additional guidance and a well defined center before making may predictions on a possible track after 48 hours. Weak systems can re-develop throwing current track guidance off, and some models have had a hard time picking up on the system altogether.

In all I suspect a TD by either 1000pm or 400am, as long as there is no dramatic changes with the ongoing organization.

Jeff L

stormy

08-24-2004, 05:39 PM

thanks jeffl, i hope this is something that we can at least look at for awhile. the weather so boring, this year, just dont know what and if the fall will bring something or nothing. please keep us informed. hey ticka good sites thanks

jeffl

08-24-2004, 06:37 PM

GOES IR showing a nice fare up of convection near and just NW of the suggested center. PM Quickscat missed the system again to the west, so no good surface wind data. Pressure now down to 1009mb from 1010mb earlier today. A review of the IR loop suggest a W heading at about 15mph and this should continue. 18Z guidance is a little more clustered on a track toward the W and WNW instead of the N turn, but there is still a good spread. I suspect this spread will narrow by 18Z Wednesday as models grasp the system and key in on better solutions.

ticka1

08-24-2004, 08:10 PM

Invest site has 96L as TD 6 - here is the link - how long will it take to become TS Frances????

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

I say by Thursday we might see Frances.

StingRay

08-24-2004, 08:33 PM

Yes children, it's about that time..................What time is it? Why it's time for the

TROPICAL TANGO!!!!!!!!!!

sparky

08-24-2004, 08:38 PM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 250224
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004

...SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS...

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HAS FORMED FROM THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 870 MILES...1400 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR...AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...11.2 N... 36.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

windy

08-24-2004, 08:38 PM

Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 24, 2004
...Sixth tropical depression of the season forms...

Satellite images this evening indicate that a tropical depression has formed from the strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 11.2 north...longitude 36.0 west or about 870 miles...1400 km...west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr...and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and the depression could become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...11.2 N... 36.0 W. Movement toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

windy

08-24-2004, 08:48 PM

What a coincidence. Lol I think I'm going to play the lottery now if I have that kind of luck. Take a look at the time we posted 10:38pm to be exact. So where do you think TD 6 will go? looking at the forecast track it looks like the east coast; from there remains to be questioned.

StingRay

08-24-2004, 08:59 PM

Hey ya'll, I'm gonna merge the three threads just to keep all its info in one thread. Just an fyi!

sparky

08-24-2004, 09:04 PM

windy that is a trip! maybe i should go play the lottery too. LOL Still early on the track but if it does a WNW turn then yep i would say east coast.

StingRay

08-24-2004, 09:09 PM

000
WTNT41 KNHC 250229
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS PRONOUNCED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH...EAST...AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER...BUT OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE EAST. ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG
THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE CYCLONE TO ABOUT 50W LONGITUDE. FARTHER
WEST AND NORTH...THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST
200 MB FORECAST FROM THE GFS MODEL. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING MAY BE
INHIBITED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AT AROUND 15 KT. DYNAMICAL
MODEL PREDICTIONS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...DUE TO THE INCURSION OF A TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS TROUGH IS AT RATHER HIGH LATITUDES HOWEVER...SO IT IS NOT
LIKELY TO PLAY A DIRECT ROLE IN STEERING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
NOTWITHSTANDING...THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...BUT
IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND FASTER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS IN VIEW
OF THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH SEEMS TO BE ACCELERATING TO THE WEST
AS WE SPEAK.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 11.2N 36.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 11.8N 38.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 12.4N 40.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 13.0N 43.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 13.8N 45.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 16.0N 48.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 18.0N 51.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 20.0N 53.0W 70 KT

$$

windy

08-24-2004, 11:48 PM

the lottery? Lol. I was like this is so unreal that we posted at the exact time. How often does this happen. Anyway I'm going to say the east coast will get this tropical storm. I just have a feeling about it. Anyway stay tuned for more info. Good night sparky.

StingRay

08-25-2004, 04:49 AM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 250841
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...NO IMMEDIATE
THREAT TO LAND...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.6 WEST OR ABOUT
1615 MILES...2600 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...11.4 N... 37.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

StingRay

08-25-2004, 04:50 AM

000
WTNT41 KNHC 250839
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2004

IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE...PRIMARILY IN A CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH...AND THE OUTFLOW
IS ESTABLISHED EVERYWHERE BUT TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY STRENGTHEN SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT 2 TO
3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SOME SHEAR AS
SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL AND SHIPS MODELS. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HINDER SLOW STRENGTHENING.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
CURRENTLY...THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT
UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS. BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IT IS
STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. MOST LIKELY
THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT LATER TODAY IF MODELS
INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH. AT THIS
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD WELL-EAST OT THE LESSER
ANTILLES IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 11.4N 37.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 11.8N 39.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 12.5N 42.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 13.5N 44.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 14.5N 46.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 16.5N 49.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 52.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 22.0N 54.0W 70 KT

ticka1

08-25-2004, 04:58 AM

Looks to me that the official NHC track is for TD6 to become a fish storm. Didn't develop much overnight. I have a feeling TD6 will remain a tropical depression for awhile.

StingRay

08-25-2004, 05:04 AM

Yeppirs, they see it as a fish or MAYBE an EC storm. Bummer. Ah well, more coming off the coast as we speak............

Coriolis

08-25-2004, 07:00 AM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (AL062004) ON 20040825 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040825 1200 040826 0000 040826 1200 040827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 38.3W 11.9N 41.2W 12.7N 43.5W 13.6N 45.6W
BAMM 11.3N 38.3W 12.0N 40.9W 12.8N 42.9W 13.8N 44.5W
A98E 11.3N 38.3W 11.5N 41.3W 11.9N 44.3W 12.4N 47.1W
LBAR 11.3N 38.3W 12.0N 41.2W 12.9N 43.9W 13.9N 46.3W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040827 1200 040828 1200 040829 1200 040830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 47.4W 15.4N 50.7W 15.6N 53.8W 14.8N 57.8W
BAMM 14.5N 46.0W 15.4N 48.6W 15.9N 51.1W 16.2N 54.6W
A98E 12.7N 49.7W 12.9N 54.0W 12.8N 58.0W 12.2N 62.5W
LBAR 14.7N 48.4W 16.3N 51.9W 17.0N 54.8W 16.6N 57.9W
SHIP 63KTS 74KTS 76KTS 74KTS
DSHP 63KTS 74KTS 76KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 38.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 35.2W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 32.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

ticka1

08-25-2004, 12:29 PM

Latest Model Track:

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html

StingRay

08-25-2004, 02:06 PM

Honey, that link was for GFS for 9/8 for THIS system. Just as a refresher course for everyone-
GFS-acronym for generally full of ****. And to make that sort of BIZARRE map once again shows that the GFW is keeping up with it's reputation. Two weeks away? Oh pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease...............
Anyway, back to our current broadcast station, since I haven't read the other messages I will put my two cents in, I DO NOT like that huge swath of dry air that TD6 will be running into. Would severely inhibit any intensification but hey, at least we got SOMETHING to watch, right?

ticka1

08-25-2004, 02:36 PM

Tropical Storm Frances Advisory Number 4

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2004

...Tropical Depression Six becomes Tropical Storm Frances...no
immediate threat to land...

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Frances was
located near latitude 11.6 north...longitude 40.5 west or about
1420 miles...2285 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

Frances is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph... 65
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...11.6 N... 40.5 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

stormy

08-25-2004, 02:37 PM

i like where that yellow line is going or that general area. and where is that dry line at? see i do know what i am talking about. lol yellow line

ticka1

08-25-2004, 03:16 PM

Here is the latest update from JEFFL - he sent this via email.

Tropical Depression # 6 is upgraded to Tropical Storm Frances.

Satellite imagery and a good Quickscat overpass indicates that TD 6 is
now a tropical storm. The Quickscat indicates winds of 50kts over the
NW part of the system, but some of this is likely convectively
induced. High resolution visible has show a well defined, but at times
exposed low level center to the SE and E of the main convection areas.
This indicates that the system continues to undergo weak ESE shear.

Track:

The system has tracked at 275 degrees or W at 17mph most of today and
is now just south of most track guidance. The global solutions
especially the GFS shifted to the right this morning and the tropical
models no longer indicate a strong right turn. In fact the tropical
models suggest a WNW heading then a bending of the track back to the W
and WSW. The global models still maintain the WNW then NW track with a
track then turning more back towards the WNW. Given the current
forecast track from NHC, there should be no threat to the islands,
however if the guidance continues to trend west the official track
will have to be adjusted westward and some impact on the Leeward
Islands would be possible.

Intensity:

Even though conditions are not hostile over the system, visible images
show only weak to moderate convection. Dry air surrounding the system
is likely being entrained and the weak easterly shear preventing rapid
deepening. With that said, models indicate conditions becoming more
favorable for development over the next 48 hours and the system should
gradually intensify to near a hurricane by Friday.

Lat: 11.6N
Long: 40.5W
Wind: 40mph
Movement: W at 17mph
Pressure: 1005mb or 29.68in

Jeff Lindner

Model Track Guidance

(I can't post his model guidance picture - jinxes) THIS DOES NOT WORK FOR ME - posting PICTURES.

stormy

08-25-2004, 03:34 PM

Yessssssssss something. so its not going to be a fish

ticka1

08-25-2004, 06:39 PM

jeffl

08-25-2004, 06:54 PM

We should know by the end of this weekend if Frances continues to go West or makes the turn to the north and goes fishing - but from the looks of each model run it seems like she is headed West or WNW.

So by Sunday or Monday a better idea of where she is going will be apparent JMO amatuer opinion.

By Sunday and Monday we should have a fairly good idea, however when forecasting tropical systems and their interactions with troughs and ridges you can end up with funky tracks and forecasting nightmares

ticka1

08-25-2004, 09:04 PM

WTNT31 KNHC 260228
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2004

...FRANCES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
LAND...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 1340 MILES...2155 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...11.8 N... 41.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

ticka1

08-26-2004, 04:23 AM

WTNT31 KNHC 260833
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2004

...FRANCES A LITTLE STRONGER...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1195 MILES...1925 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...12.6 N... 43.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Coriolis

08-26-2004, 07:00 AM

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040826 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040826 1200 040827 0000 040827 1200 040828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 44.3W 14.0N 47.1W 15.2N 49.7W 16.3N 51.8W
BAMM 12.8N 44.3W 14.1N 47.0W 15.4N 49.5W 16.5N 51.6W
A98E 12.8N 44.3W 13.6N 47.2W 14.3N 50.1W 15.3N 52.7W
LBAR 12.8N 44.3W 14.1N 47.0W 15.4N 49.5W 16.3N 51.6W
SHIP 60KTS 75KTS 86KTS 93KTS
DSHP 60KTS 75KTS 86KTS 93KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040828 1200 040829 1200 040830 1200 040831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 53.7W 18.3N 56.5W 18.5N 59.4W 19.0N 62.3W
BAMM 17.4N 53.5W 18.3N 56.3W 18.6N 59.2W 19.3N 62.1W
A98E 16.3N 55.0W 17.1N 59.5W 16.1N 63.8W 13.9N 67.7W
LBAR 17.1N 53.5W 17.5N 56.4W 17.2N 59.9W 18.3N 63.6W
SHIP 98KTS 103KTS 97KTS 90KTS
DSHP 98KTS 103KTS 97KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 44.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 38.3W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 65NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 65NM

ticka1

08-26-2004, 09:58 AM

WTNT31 KNHC 261448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2004

...FRANCES GETTING STRONGER OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...COULD BECOME
A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1105 MILES...1775 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FRANCES COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES
...120 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...13.1 N... 45.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

ticka1

08-26-2004, 10:52 AM

So what's on everyone's mind about Frances? Looks like she is wobbling a little today to the NORTH. Will the trough catch her and pull her up and make her a fish storm? IMAO I think this system has alot to do before it gets anywhere close to the USA - all the dry air in front of it and if it continues to strengthen or maintain itself?

So many questions and only time to wait for the answers.

StingRay

08-26-2004, 12:17 PM

Have to say I'm impressed that she has grown STRONGER despite the relatively less-than friendly environment. Also, the models are shifting to the north again, but IMO, it's anyone's game right now.

windy

08-26-2004, 01:06 PM

and I believe it may be a major hurricane coming up the east coast. I sure hope Florida is spared.

StingRay

08-26-2004, 01:11 PM

Why East Coast? I agree, Florida needs no more grief this year.

robinsonfirstaid

08-26-2004, 01:29 PM

Hey All,

What Do All You Think This Storm Will Make Land-Fall If Any???

Thanks,
B. Robinson

StingRay

08-26-2004, 01:33 PM

Honestly, I get caught up in the hoopla at first, then take some time to study exactly what's going on currently vs. what is progged to occur. We'd have to get some kick butt high pressure buildling up a ridge from the caribbean straight north through the East Coast to keep it away from ANY landfall on the CONUS. Only high pressure like that is usually evident in early June or AFTER a particularly strong cold front. Don't see any fronts coming down the pike with that kinda of energy push behind it. What do YOU see?

Coriolis

08-26-2004, 02:38 PM

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2004

FRANCES HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SMALL 10-15
NMI DIAMETER BANDING EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPEARING. SATELLITE
INTENSITY IS T4.0...OR 65 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
TREND OF GOING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE
INDICATING IS BEING CONTINUED ON THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. FRANCES HAS REMAINED ON TRACK AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW
..EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A SHARP
RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. IN FACT...THE LATEST UKMET RUN HAS SHIFTED
MUCH FARTHER WEST WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.
THOSE TWO MODELS...PLUS THE GFDL...HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON TOP OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN ONLY DIVERGE
SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE 12Z TRACK AFTER THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW APPEARS TO HAVE BOTTOMED OUT
AND IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD...SO ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES IS EXPECTED IN THE 36-72H
TIME PERIOD. AFTERWARDS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN NOGAPS...
IS FORECASTING THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND
THE NORTH ATLANTIC TO BECOME STRONGLY ZONAL. WITH SUCH STRONG
WESTERLY HIGH-LATITUDE FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED...A CORRESPONDING
RESPONSE SHOULD BE A STRENGTHENING OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE
WESTWARD TO PERHAPS THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 120 HOURS. THAT PATTERN
SHOULD HELP TO TURN FRANCES MORE WESTWARD AFTER 96 HOURS. AS SUCH
..THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

SINCE FRANCES APPEARS TO HAVE MIXED OUT ANY DRY AIR INTRUSIONS...HAS
A RATHER SMALL EYE...AND GOOD OUTFLOW ESTABLISHED...THEN ADDITIONAL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR
SO. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS LEVELED SINCE AT
LEAST ONE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT 72
HOURS DUE TO THE CURRENT SMALL DIAMETER EYE. TIMING ANY ADDITIONAL
EYEWALL CYCLES WITH ANY KIND OF SKILL JUST IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAY STILL OCCUR SINCE THE HURRICANE
WILL BE PASSING OVER 29C SSTS...ABOUT 1C ABOVE AVERAGE...BY 96HR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 13.7N 46.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 14.6N 48.1W 85 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 15.8N 50.2W 95 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 16.9N 51.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 17.8N 52.8W 100 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 19.0N 55.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 20.5N 58.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 21.5N 62.5W 105 KT

StingRay

08-26-2004, 02:46 PM

Alot of the word "WEST" mentioned in there, gives one pause...
Especially those of us along the Gulf Coast...hide and watch children, hide and watch.

Coriolis

08-26-2004, 02:51 PM

I am beginning to hate the word WEST - seems like the west is always the "bad".

StingRay

08-26-2004, 02:56 PM

Think it's about time for a creepy picture, since I'm beginning to get the creeps. Jim, you got a room ready for me?

Coriolis

08-26-2004, 02:59 PM

Uhhhh - think it will get me first, then you. Hmmm - gotta find someone safe!

ticka1

08-26-2004, 03:12 PM

Frances is going west - wow what a difference 24 hours makes. Be interesting to see where she is come Sunday evening which is 72hours and then on Monday which is 96 hours down the road.

StingRay

08-26-2004, 03:38 PM

For ya'll that don't understand about high vs. low, if you have HIGH pressure, the wind blows CLOCKWISE around the high so if a system was headed TOWARD high pressure, it would shove it westerly. Winds blow COUNTERCLOCKWISE around a LOW pressure system, so if a system is headed TOWARD low pressure, it would get sucked into it. Note that in a hurricane, the winds rotate COUNTERCLOCKWISE around the eye.

ticka1

08-26-2004, 03:45 PM

Another perspective - Stingray - if you can work your magic on making this an image in the post.

ticka1
Done!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/262048W5.gif

stormy

08-26-2004, 04:05 PM

so with the current track how long before we know where she is going? Coriolis thats all i need is to worry about Florida again.

ticka1

08-26-2004, 04:12 PM

Stormy - its moving in a WNW direction - really still too early to tell which direction its going as it gets closer to the United States. Check by on Sunday or late Monday and we all will have a better idea where she is going!

Coriolis

08-26-2004, 04:32 PM

What, you need to worry?? I need to worry too!! I am not ready to start sweating bullets...yet. But I have pulled all important documents into the ready to go file.

I am going to wait till the end of the weekend unless I hear more from BIL. :scared:

Jim

ticka1

08-26-2004, 04:40 PM

Coriolis - you will give us the lowdown on what your BIL says - please? His perspective is always welcomed here at wildonweather.

Coriolis

08-26-2004, 04:50 PM

Unless he is needed - I think he is off do to his mother's passing. But knowing him - he will probably go in and get the latest. I have not asked when he goes back to work. I will let you know when I hear anything.

ticka1

08-26-2004, 06:17 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/BD/20.jpg

is this the beginning of an eye formation?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

StingRay

08-26-2004, 06:22 PM

Your Dvorak link is better than the infrared....looks on the verge of becoming a true menace!!!!

ticka1

08-26-2004, 06:26 PM

You know what they say about WOMEN storms - they have no mercy for those in its path. Hell Hath no Fury Like Frances.

longtalltexan79

08-26-2004, 07:10 PM

Nothing like hearing the name "Frances" to bring the hackles up...remember TS Frances here back in 98...missed a week of school...going to keep an eye on her 2004 counterpart...

StingRay

08-26-2004, 07:14 PM

Why do I not remember Frances? We were living in this house, you would think I would.......man, it's hell to get old.

jeffl

08-26-2004, 07:18 PM

Frances continues to get her act together this evening. As NHC mentioned in their discussion, the system is currently in the process of an eyewall replacement cycle. Although we have no recon. data, I suspect Frances may be a little stornger than NHC suggest --probably around 85-90mph.

The track forecast remains unchanged from earlier today with a general WNW heading into a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge. The large mid latitude cyclone resposible for the weakenss has dug as far south as it is going to and should begin to lift ENE Friday. This will begin to allow the sub-tropical high to rebuild north of Frances and a more W steering motion to begin by late Saturday. I am a little conerned that Frances has not gained a lot of latitude and that the trough appears slightly weaker than guidance suggested. This could indicate a faster turn back to the west and a possible threat to the northern Leeward Islands.

Down the road, everybody (not only on here) seems to like the Fl then GOM track. I am hard pressed to move the system into the GOM as another trough will be pushing SE into TX Sunday and into the northern GOM Wednesday and then setting up over the SE US and E coast. This should be enough to grab Frances and pull her N over the W ATL or possibly the US E coast. However, with that said, Frances will have one shot to connect with the trough. If she is able to remain south of the mid level ridge and the trough is not as strong as forecast she may not feel the trough and continue due west along the south side of the mid level ridge. This track would threaten S FL and then some part of the GOM (likely TX or Mexico).

Persons in coastal hurricane prone areas from the E coast to S TX should monitor advisories and statements from NHC, and put little faith in long range guidance or speculation on a track beyond the official 5 day forecast cone.

We should have learned from Charley, that even 6 hours out forecast can still be off by 40-50 miles (that is a big difference between a major metro area and an area of limited development).

Jeff Lindner

StingRay

08-26-2004, 07:21 PM

Excellent analysis and discussion. THANK YOU!!!:worship:

jeffl

08-26-2004, 07:24 PM

Nothing like hearing the name "Frances" to bring the hackles up...remember TS Frances here back in 98...missed a week of school...going to keep an eye on her 2004 counterpart...

Yes, Frances 98, the storm surge along the west end of Galveston and the west side of Galveston Bay (6-8 feet). The flooding in Houston with 8-12 inches of rain in a 12 hour period (mainly along White Oak Bayou and its tribs). It was a big event, but nothing in comparison to Allison and her 28.5 inches in 12 hours with record flooding on nearly all of the 22 major watersheds in Harris County. I will save my Allison story for another night.

StingRay

08-26-2004, 07:29 PM

Oh, DUH!!!! That was back when I was working at a law firm and they had a beach house you could use for free. We were scheduled to have it that weekend or something. I remember now, I was really bummed out, seriously thought about going. After I saw the flooding on the west end, was GLAD I had been told that I WASN'T GOING!!! (One of the few times I ever listened to my husband).

windy

08-26-2004, 08:25 PM

looks to be coming up the east coast according to the forecast track. Now I know this can change but the looks of it brings it close to Florida and our local Meterologist said it could be a major hurricane so we need to be praying for Florida that they don't get a double dose. The discussions don't mention a fish storm so I don't know where some get that from unless my source is dead. I know the NHC is saying a west turn. But nothing indicating to me its going out to sea or any curving. But anyway I'm no weather expert I just rely on frequent updates. Take care all. :butterfly

ticka1

08-26-2004, 08:56 PM

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 9

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2004

...Frances continues to strengthen...
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 14.0 north...longitude 47.3 west or about 940
miles...1515 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph
...24 km/hr...and some decrease in forward speed is expected on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph...140
km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours...and Frances could become a category two
hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 85 miles...140 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...14.0 N... 47.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 980 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

longtalltexan79

08-26-2004, 09:29 PM

Yes, Frances 98, the storm surge along the west end of Galveston and the west side of Galveston Bay (6-8 feet). The flooding in Houston with 8-12 inches of rain in a 12 hour period (mainly along White Oak Bayou and its tribs). It was a big event, but nothing in comparison to Allison and her 28.5 inches in 12 hours with record flooding on nearly all of the 22 major watersheds in Harris County. I will save my Allison story for another night.

Yes, Frances of 98' pales in comparison to Allison...even tho we didn't get any effects from Allison down this way I remember just being astonished and in awe of it from watching the news all that night...I couldn't peel myself away from it...just amazing that storm was...

ticka1

08-27-2004, 04:24 AM

WTNT31 KNHC 270837
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

...FRANCES A LITTLE STRONGER...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.4 WEST OR ABOUT 865 MILES
...1390 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...14.5 N... 48.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

ticka1

08-27-2004, 05:07 AM

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

The latest track per the NHC. Looks like the western turn is still in the picture!

longtalltexan79

08-27-2004, 05:24 AM

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

The latest track per the NHC. Looks like the western turn is still in the picture!

wow she is looking very nice on sat this morning...can see the eye and everything...I think she's going to be a dangerous storm in a few days time...

StingRay

08-27-2004, 05:33 AM

None of the GOM NWS are really mentioning her at all, am sure they feel too early in the game to say anything. Still mentioning the cold front coming down and then WASHING OUT anywhere from I-10 to 20 nm offshore. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't a front wash out in 1983???? Yes, let's all remember THOSE happy times............

ticka1

08-27-2004, 05:49 AM

Now remind me what was in 1983?? Oh yeah Alicia! I think Frances is too far out for them to mention anything - but they are giving adequate coverage to her existence. By Tuesday maybe they will start saying more if she is to threaten any part of the GOM coastline.

Rip76

08-27-2004, 06:22 AM

The thing about Alicia, was that it started in the gulf, correct?

StingRay

08-27-2004, 06:34 AM

Yes, off the coast of Louisiana. Not like Frances, but we can always be leery of any front that dies off in the GOM since the water temps there are currently quite warm. Of course, there are other factors, shear, etc. But also, a low attracts hurricanes while a high pushes them away. And if there was a strong high building in behind the front, the front would not wash out, it would move all the way off the East Coast.

ticka1

08-27-2004, 06:46 AM

The thing about Alicia, was that it started in the gulf, correct?
Started in the GOM off the tailend of a coldfront. Haven't seen that happen since Alicia either. But of course I could be wrong on that account.

ticka1

08-27-2004, 09:15 AM

Looks like she's forcasted a little further south

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2004

...FRANCES STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST OR ABOUT 820 MILES
...1320 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES FRANCES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FRANCES COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N... 49.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

FRANCES CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE STRENGTHENING TO
90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB...A SATELLITE
DATA T-NUMBER OF 5.0 FORM AFWA...AND 27/1010Z UW-CIMSS AMSU
PRESSURE RETRIEVAL OF 969.8 MB...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 90 KT. THE
OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT AND ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

THE MOTION IS NOW 300/09. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND HAS BEGUN TO
SLOW DOWN. A NORTHWESTWARD JOG MAY OCCUR...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF FRANCES IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 52W LONGITUDE CONTINUES TO ZIP
ALONG EASTWARD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THEN
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE DIFFERING
TRACKS...ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON HIGH ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG
WESTERLIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AFTER 48HR. SUCH A STRONG HIGH-LATITUDE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
IS USUALLY REFLECTED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST FROM THE AZORES TO BERMUDA AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MY CONCERN IS THAT THE RIDGE MAY BUILD IN FASTER
THAN EXPECTED AND DRIVE FRANCES MORE WESTWARD SOONER THAN FORECAST
...WHICH IS WHAT THE 06Z GFS MODEL IS INDICATING. HOWEVER...MAKING
SUCH A SUDDEN AND SHARP 45 DEGREE LEFT-OF-TRACK TURN AT 48 HOURS IS
PROBABLY OVERDOING IT SOME...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE CONSISTENT
TREND IN THE GFS MODEL THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND WESTWARD IN 72-120HR.

FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
INCREASING SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO AT LEAST SOME SLOW
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL SHARPLY BRINGS DOWN
THE INTENSITY TO 73 KT AFTER 72 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FICTITIOUS AND
'SELF-INFLICTED' BY THE GFS/SHIPS MODEL...DUE TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK BEING ABOUT 180 NMI NORTH OF THE GFS FORECAST
POSITIONS IN 72-120H. THIS PUTS FRANCES IN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A VERY INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH THAT
ALL THE MODELS DEVELOP OVER FRANCES. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED
AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.0N 49.0W 90 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 50.4W 100 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 17.0N 52.1W 100 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 18.0N 53.6W 105 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 18.9N 55.2W 105 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 20.2N 58.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 62.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 22.0N 67.0W 110 KT

StingRay

08-27-2004, 09:37 AM

Be afraid, be very afraid:
Link to QuickScat (small version below)
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_scat_full.html

ticka1

08-27-2004, 09:47 AM

Calistar

08-27-2004, 11:33 AM

From the latest I have seen across the net - are the models changing and putting Frances more towards PR and Cuba and into the GOM? Say it isn't so...I don't think I can take the stress of one in the GOM.
After going thru Izzy and Lilly a couple years ago (I'm on the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain across from N.O.) I sure don't want to be here if any other Cat 3-4 Hurricanes decide to come visit! :omg:

StingRay

08-27-2004, 12:18 PM

And who said it would go into the Gulf in the poll? Well I think that would be.............

MOI!!!!!!

windy

08-27-2004, 12:58 PM

We have two that could become tropical depressions in the next two days. One near Bermuda and the other near NC. Both near the EC US. My goodness it looks like things are hopping again in the tropics.

jeffl

08-27-2004, 07:43 PM

Frances looked very well organized this afternoon with a symmetrical round and very cold CDO. However, since then the deep convection has weakened and it appears the hurricane may be ingesting some dry air into the SW flank. Frances has a very small diameter eye roughly about 10-12 miles across. This indicates a tight central core and the slight poor appearance on satellite could also be the start of an eyewall replacement cycle.

Intensity:

As discussed in the 500pm NHC discussion some flucuations in intensity are likley over the next several days. Frances will be moving over progressively warm waters and into good upper level outflow. With all these factors being forecast correctly I see no reason why the system should not become a cat 4 or maybe even a cat 5. The only one thing that does worry me a little is the shear over the Leewards extending several hundred miles into the Atlantic. The models forecast this shear to weaken and a 200mb anticyclone to develop over Frances with the core of the system extending to near 200mb (this happens in the strongest of tropical cyclones).

Track:

The hype has already begun with landfalls from New York to Key West and then on to Tampico. The media is already preping the news crews and ready to send them into the heart of a category 4 or 5 eyewall. All we know right now, is that in 120 hours the system should be ESE of the southern Bahama Islands (NHC offical track), and that is what people should focus on for guidances and preparation purposes. Always remember the track error at 120 hours is on average 200-300 miles

Aside from NHC, I will feed the speculation mill this evening. The ridge should build back north of Frances by late Saturday and return the ssytem to a W or WNW track. This should keep the hurricane far enough north of the Leeward Island so that they only see very high wave action. Down the road we have now thrown two problems into the forecasting nightmare (TD # 7 and the tropical low south of Bermuda). I suspect TD 7 will be inland and long gone by next week and the system south of Bermuda should not develop much. However these two system have the potential to prevent the rapid rebuilding of the ridge allowing a more WNW instead of W track of Frances. It remains to be seen what the exact impacts these two systems will have on the track of Frances.

A little further out, around the middle of next week, another trough will be moving into the SE US and along the E coast. This trough would have the potential to turn Frances to the NW and N if it is strong enough and if it can weaken the sub-tropical ridge enough. The hugh question is where is Frances when this happens if it happens at all. IF Frances feels the trough it could be brought N over the W ATL or east coast including FL. If it misses the trough, I see no more upstream shots to keep it from moving into the Gulf as suggested by the GFS with the system between Key West and Cuba around the 7-8th.

As always, we should all be prepared all the time, and closely follow NHC forecast track guidance. Anything beyond the 3-5 day track and error cone is speculation and should be taken lightly. This goes for medium and long range model guidance as well.

Jeff Lindner

jeffl

08-27-2004, 08:21 PM

Frances is in fact undergoing an eyewall replacement as we write. You can clearly see it on IR images and looping. At one point it appeared to have two eyes. This is the outer eywall closing in and the inner eyewall falling apart. This process will continue for the next several hours as the outer eyewall shrinks smaller and smaller. This will likely result in cat 4 intensity early Saturday.

I also think France did ingest a little dry air as it is looking somewhat ragged on the west side, and the upper level outflow looks a little impenged on in that area. It is likely just a short term thing and could be a re-organizing of the central core.

This thing could really be a beast in the next 48 hours or sooner once these short term trends are ironed out.

StingRay

08-27-2004, 08:28 PM

Here's your creepy picture!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

jeffl

08-27-2004, 08:40 PM

Recon flight plans:

WC-130 recon. aircraft to depart at 18Z Sunday for 6 hourly fixes on Hurricane Frances.

High altitude NOAA P3 aicraft (GIV) will depart at 18Z Sunday and begin upper air surveillance misson over the W ATL to Frances (40000-45000 ft). Pre-determined dropsonde data will be feed into global forecast models by early Monday.

WC-130 will continue 2-3 flights per day as long as Frances is a threat.

amy

08-27-2004, 09:18 PM

Weather reports say the storm is heading towards the coast of Florida, somewhere between Miami and points north. OF course, it's quite a distance and could change course a few times----but at this time it's aiming in my direction - Palm Beach. This will be catastropic to us on the SE coast of Florida, worse than Charley. I am now tracking her regularly on a map and am getting anxious. My arendaline is flowing tonight - how exciting and overpowering. No, I haven't purchased shutters yet. If this becomes a cat 5, stays on current course and we stay, we can put our heads between our legs and kiss our a-- and house goodbye. Hopefully I will be a far distance away since evacuation will probably be mandatory. Let's hope it turns north and fades away, but the excitement is awesome - I love it! How sick is that?

ticka1

08-27-2004, 09:25 PM

Welcome Amy to the world of being a tropical weather addict or is that geek?

Calistar

08-27-2004, 09:34 PM

Addicted? Who's addicted...... :D

amy

08-27-2004, 09:36 PM

My husband says he's becoming a weather widower. And I say... pretty soon I'll be a football widow. I know the next week I'll be glued every night to my computer and dozens of weather links, learning, studying, reading posts and getting crazier and crazier. Category 5 or even 6 could be possible--- and it's heading this way. What a rush!

stormy

08-27-2004, 11:56 PM

Amy I am the same way, i have loved the weather as a little girl, My friends laugh and call me a weather geek. but they call me to ask what is happening.
guys correct me if I am wrong, but when i was little we use to tape the windows, Does this still work? or were we just spinning or wheels.

StingRay

08-28-2004, 01:00 AM

Amy, just a side note, there is no Category 6.
PLEASE try to remain calm and know that we are here for you.

StingRay

08-28-2004, 01:06 AM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 280228
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2004

...FRANCES ON TRACK...EYE GETTING LARGER...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST OR ABOUT 750
MILES...1205 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
MOTION BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FRANCES COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...16.3 N... 50.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

StingRay

08-28-2004, 01:08 AM

WTNT41 KNHC 280227
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

BASED UPON SSMI IMAGES AND INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION...FRANCES
APPEARS TO HAVE GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH THE
NET RESULT BEING A LARGER EYE DIAMETER AND A LIKELY DECREASE IN
WIND SPEED. THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONFIRMED BY THE FACT THAT TAFB
DETERMINED A T5.5 AND SAB A T5.0...COMPARED TO TAFB HAVING THE SAME
INTENSITY AND SAB DOWN ONE-HALF T NUMBER FROM 6 HOURS AGO. GLOBAL
WEATHER ALSO CAME IN WITH A T5.0 FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 100 KTS. GENERALLY...THE NEXT
PHASE AFTER ONE OF THESE CYCLES IS INTENSIFICATION.

THE MOTION IS 310/10. FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND IS RIGHT ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED DUE NORTH OF FRANCES
MOVES EASTWARD AND THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD TURN FRANCES BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ALL OF
THE MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC AFTER 48HR WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO EXTEND
EAST-WEST FROM THE AZORES TO BERMUDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THE NHC MODEL SUITE IS A LITTLE MORE DIVERGENT IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY
TIME PERIODS THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT THE CONSENSUS MODEL IS
ALMOST UNCHANGED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS CYCLE FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL OUT TO 72 HOURS BUT GENTLY SHIFTS THE 4 AND 5 DAY
FORECAST POSITIONS CLOSER TO THE GUNA POSITIONS. THIS FORECAST IS
ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE UKMET SOLUTION.

FRANCES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
INCREASING SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL
CONTINUES TO KEEP FRANCES A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL FLUCTUATIONS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IN
THE INTENSITY OVER THIS PERIOD OF TIME...BUT CATEGORY FOUR
INTENSITY SEEMS LIKELY SOME TIME DURING THAT PERIOD...AND CATEGORY
5 STRENGTH IS EVEN POSSIBLE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 16.3N 50.5W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 17.2N 51.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 18.3N 53.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 19.1N 54.9W 115 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 19.8N 56.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 20.9N 60.9W 115 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 22.1N 65.4W 115 KT
120HR VT 02/0000Z 23.5N 70.0W 115 KT

StingRay

08-28-2004, 01:11 AM

GUNA model track as well as UKMET:

StingRay

08-28-2004, 01:15 AM

A really ugly chart:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604I+GIF/280253I.gif

StingRay

08-28-2004, 06:35 AM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 280939
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2004

....FRANCES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH NO CHANGE IN
INTENSITY...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT 695
MILES...1115 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.0 N... 51.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

StingRay

08-28-2004, 06:35 AM

000
WTNT41 KNHC 280841
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
FRANCES. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS FEW HOURS AGO AND CONVECTION
IS NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER. I WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE WINDS BUT
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 100-KNOT WINDS AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AT
THIS TIME...AND IS HEADING TOWARD AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE
SHEAR WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...
INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE.

THE EXPECTED TURN MORE TO THE WEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET AND IN
FACT GLOBAL AND THE GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTWARD TRACK
SHOULD NOT BEGIN FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A STRONG AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE CREATING A PATTERN THAT WOULD FORCE THE
HURRICANE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WESTWARD TRACK. THE UK
MODEL IS NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE HURRICANE
DANGEROUSLY WESTWARD JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS
AND THE UK MODEL SOLUTION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.0N 51.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 18.0N 52.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 54.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 20.0N 56.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 20.5N 58.5W 115 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 21.0N 63.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 22.0N 68.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 72.4W 115 KT

ticka1

08-28-2004, 06:55 AM

[
THE EXPECTED TURN MORE TO THE WEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET AND IN
FACT GLOBAL AND THE GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTWARD TRACK
SHOULD NOT BEGIN FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A STRONG AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE CREATING A PATTERN THAT WOULD FORCE THE
HURRICANE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WESTWARD TRACK. THE UK
MODEL IS NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE HURRICANE
DANGEROUSLY WESTWARD JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS
AND THE UK MODEL SOLUTION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.0N 51.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 18.0N 52.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 54.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 20.0N 56.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 20.5N 58.5W 115 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 21.0N 63.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 22.0N 68.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 72.4W 115 KT[/QUOTE]
Okay folks after finally waking up this morning - I just finished reading the 5 a.m. advisory and one thing I noted is the use of West and Westward in their discussions.

I went last night and bought 1/2 inch plywood for my woodwork I do and it cost $15 per sheet - 3/4 inch plywood is close to $24 a sheet - I told my husband that I won't use it until Frances is completely out of the picture.

I don't like the run of the GFS this morning - its a little too close to home. By the time Frances gets into the GOM - I think the front/trough will be too week to matter and the Bermuda high will be over FL/AL/MS - but this is just my untrained opinion after looking at the model maps. I'm not taking my eyes off Frances this weekend - that's for sure.

Thoughts and comments welcome - come on folks - start posting and let us know what you are thinking? This is what this forum is for - the exchange of thoughts, ideas and discussions.

amy

08-28-2004, 07:13 AM

Stormy,

I was told a few weeks ago when Charley was approaching that the duct tape is to put over the kids mouths when they start complaining. It does absolutely no good on windows and takes weeks to scrape off. I don't have shutters on the windows and I'm afraid if Frances comes this way. I say say good bye to my windows, roof and house.

ticka1

08-28-2004, 07:15 AM

Amy use plywood to cover your windows. Anything is better then leaving them open.

windy

08-28-2004, 07:22 AM

except keep the glass in place instead of it shattering all over the floor. I heard our local met. a few years ago say that people were calling in to find out if duct tape keeps the glass from breaking.Lol If you want your windows from breaking get plywood to board them up or buy shutters. I reallly would concentrate on where Frances is headed before going crazy :crazy-eye. If the local mets are predicting Frances to come in your area that's when you should start preparing for the worse. I wonder if Frances will get strong enough to be a cat. 5. Yikes their she blows.

jeffl

08-28-2004, 07:36 AM

Never duct tape ever. Plywood is fairly good, but shutters are the best. If plywood is not attached well the wind can get under it and suck it off, not to mention flying debris can penetrate 3/4th inch wood.

The number 1 thing in a hurricane is to keep the wind outside your house. Once an entry point is made the house will begin to fall aprt. Once wind is inside, pressure loading will force the roof upward and off, and then the walls will not be supported and fal inward or blow away.

Find all the entry points of wind into your house: doors, windows, chimneys, and most important garage doors and cover them and brace them internally.

amy

08-28-2004, 08:26 AM

Thanks Jeff. I won't be duct taping my windows. Shutters, which I have priced (in the high thousands), are way too expensive and price prohibited. I priced window film but it too is expensive (in the low thousands) and only protects the glass from breaking. Plywood is affordable but there is no way to reach the windows on the second floor especially the windows above the screen room so every window could not be covered and I would suspect if one could not be, why bother covering the rest? My house is 7 years old - why didn't the code insist on shutters? What is wrong with this stupid state of Florida. After Andrew you would think that all new construction would have to include shutters. Most of my neighbors do not have shutters. I guess we'll all be hoping we don't get a storm and if so, we'll all rely on our insurance.

ticka1

08-28-2004, 08:58 AM

WTNT41 KNHC 281444
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

BASED ON SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA THIS
MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT FRANCES HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT NOW AND HAS INCREASED TO
AT LEAST A 20 NMI DIAMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T5.5...OR 102 KT FROM TAFB FOR THE PAST 18 HR...A 3-HR ODT
AVERAGE OF T5.6...OR 105 KT...AND THE IMPROVED EYE APPEARANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SPEED LATER TODAY. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THROUGH 72 HOURS ON FRANCES TAKING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN BENDING MORE WESTWARD IN 48-72HR. HOWEVER
...THE MODELS DIVERGE DUE TO THE WAY THEY HANDLE NOW TROPICAL STORM
GASTON OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE
CANADIAN MODELS LIFT GASTON SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH 48 HR...AND
THEN RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 96 HR AND HAS GASTON OUT OF THE
PICTURE BY 120 HR. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN BETWEEN
GASTON AND FRANCES...WHICH WOULD HELP TO KEEP FRANCES ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK. IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL AND NOGAPS
MODELS LEAVE A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST IN THE WAKE OF GASTON. THIS ALLOWS FRANCES TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BY 96HR WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK LEANS CLOSELY TOWARD THE GFS-UKMET-CANADIAN SOLUTION
GIVEN THAT THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
BECOME HIGHLY ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

NOW THAT FRANCES HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AT
LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESUME SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND BECOME MORE CIRCULAR. A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS ALSO DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH. THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ONLY WARM WATER...
UP TO 29C SST...AHEAD OF FRANCES SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO
REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 17.4N 51.9W 105 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 18.3N 53.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 19.3N 55.3W 115 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 20.1N 57.4W 120 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 59.7W 120 KT
72HR VT 31/1200Z 21.3N 64.6W 120 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 22.0N 69.0W 120 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 23.0N 73.0W 120 KT

robinsonfirstaid

08-28-2004, 09:05 AM

Hey All,

With The Westward Motion Almost In Place Do You Think It Will Hit The Carolina's?? Or South Of The Carolinas??

Thanks,
B. Robinson

ticka1

08-28-2004, 09:10 AM

B Robinson are you talking about Gaston or Frances? I think Gaston will make landfall between GA/SC. But then that's just my amatuer opinion.

robinsonfirstaid

08-28-2004, 09:55 AM

Hey,

I'm Talking About Frances!!

Thanks,
B. Robinson

StingRay

08-28-2004, 10:15 AM

I wouldn't place ANY bets on Frances hitting the East Coast at all, but that's just me. The Bermuda high should be firmly entrenched over that area which would completely rule out a landfalling hurricane in that area.

StingRay

08-28-2004, 10:18 AM

Latest pics:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR2/20.jpg

ticka1

08-28-2004, 10:59 AM

Check out this link its the GFS - 174 hours out.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_174m.gif

Perhaps our site magician can make it into a picture - hint hint StingRay!
Done!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_174m.gif

longtalltexan79

08-28-2004, 11:15 AM

Ticka - now that is a scary picture...and so reminiscent of Andrew!

Calistar

08-28-2004, 11:31 AM

Oy Vey! It's really starting to look like she's determined to end up in the GOM! If she's a Cat 4 or 5 by then, I pity the people in Florida or whomever ends up in her path! :crazy-eye

stormy

08-28-2004, 11:40 AM

longtalltexan79

08-28-2004, 11:50 AM

Texan I sure hope you are wrong about this looking like Andrew, so what you are saying is this looks like where Frances is going?? Does mother nature have it in for Florida this year? this doesnt look good.

I'm no expert of course, but just looking at that picture that Ticka provided, if that does in fact hold together, it could cross the same path that Andrew did over southern Florida. It all depends on that westward turn the NHC is forcasting it to take. Of course we all know these things have a mind of their own, but lord help anyone who is in the path of this!

ticka1

08-28-2004, 02:48 PM

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 16

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 28, 2004

...Frances strengthens into the second category four hurricane of
the 2004 Atlantic season...

a tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the northern
Leeward Islands on Sunday.

Interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and the northeastern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Frances over
the next several days.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 17.9 north...longitude 52.6 west or about 690
miles...1110 km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Frances is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A
gradual turn back to the west-northwest is expected by tonight or
Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Conditions appear favorable for some additional strengthening
to occur during the next 24 hours...and Frances could reach near
category five intensity on Sunday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb...27.99 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...17.9 N... 52.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 948 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM AST.

Forecaster Stewart

ticka1

08-28-2004, 02:50 PM

Jeffl - what are your comments after watching Frances all day? Do you agree with the NHC and their projected track?

Comments and etc are welcome from everyone.

ticka1

08-28-2004, 02:51 PM

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_5day.html

New cone path of direction for Frances.

jeffl

08-28-2004, 02:57 PM

Frances now a dangerous cat 4 with 135mph winds.

I will be examining track guidance later this afternoon and have a detailed write up this evening.

Concern is growing for the Bahamas, and FL.

Residents in these areas should review preparadness guidlines and have hurricane supplies ready.

Strong T-storm almost on top of me right now, I must go take a peak.

A detailed write up this evening on both Gaston and Frances.

StingRay

08-28-2004, 03:54 PM

000
WTNT41 KNHC 282033
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

FRANCES HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MAINTAINING A 20 NMI
DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT BASED ON A
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0...OR 115 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...A 3-HR AVERAGE ODT OF T5.9...OR 113 KT...A 2.5-HR AVERAGE ODT
OF T6.0...AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER TO
T6.5...OR 127 KT...SINCE THE 18Z SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE MADE.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANCES IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND APPEARS
TO BE MAKING A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS.
MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC RUNNING TRACK ERRORS THROUGH 28/18Z ARE
44...71...AND 104 NMI AT 24-...48-...AND 72-HR...RESPECTIVELY.
THESE ERRORS ARE HALF OUR AVERAGE ERRORS...AND ARE BETTER THAN ALL
OF THE COMPUTER MODELS...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THEREFORE
...WE HAVE A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN OUR FORECAST TRACK...WHICH
REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS MODEL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UKMET MODEL TO
THE NORTH. THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS BEEN BY FAR THE WORSE PERFORMING
MODEL WITH ITS STRONG RIGHT OF TRACK BIAS...SO IT WAS IGNORED FOR
THIS PACKAGE. WHILE OUR CURRENT FORECAST ERRORS ARE QUITE GOOD...
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS TO MAKE
IT TOO EARLY TO TRY AND DETERMINE IF...WHEN...AND WHERE FRANCES
WILL MAKE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME FOR EVERYONE
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS TO CHECK THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND SUPPLIES.

FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...INCLUDING AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
NORTH. THE SSTS BETWEEN 62-68W LONGITUDE ARE NEAR 29C...SO AT LEAST
SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT FRANCES COULD EVEN REACH NEAR-CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A BETTER OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE
AFTER 84 HOURS WHEN THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER NEAR-30C SSTS
WHEN A 50-60 KT NORTHERLY WIND SPEED MAXIMUM IS FORECAST BY THE GFS
...UKMET...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FRANCES...ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 17.9N 52.6W 115 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 18.7N 53.9W 120 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.4N 55.8W 125 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 58.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 20.5N 60.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 21.3N 65.4W 125 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 70.5W 125 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 75.5W 125 KT

ticka1

08-28-2004, 04:13 PM

Wow. This looks like a Florida/Miami/Key West storm.

amy

08-28-2004, 05:27 PM

Ticka - After seeing the cone path you posted from weatherunderground I'm seriously getting scard!!!! I've got all my supplies, but I'll be loading them into the car before I evaculate.

amy

08-28-2004, 05:32 PM

Oy Vey! It's really starting to look like she's determined to end up in the GOM! If she's a Cat 4 or 5 by then, I pity the people in Florida or whomever ends up in her path! :crazy-eye

OY VEY is right. Pity me in Florida sitting right in its path on the SE coast. I was fortunate not to be in the path of Charley, but I don't think I'll be that fortunate with Frances.

jeffl

08-28-2004, 06:46 PM

Hurricane Frances now a dangerous category 4 hurricane.

Current Patterns:

IR images this afternoon and early evening reveal a well developed hurricane with a 20 mile diameter stadium effect type eye. Intense convective banding continues to develop and spiral inward into the Central Dense Overcast (CDO). An outflow channel has open to the north of the system based on Water Vapor images helping to evacuate the rising air away from the system. A second outflow channel is progged to develop to the south of the hurricane making conditions very favorable for intensification. Frances is fully tapping the high latent heat content of the warm Atlantic and is also attempting to pull deep moisture into the circulation from as far as the EPAC.

Intensity Forecast:

Frances has undergone several eyewall replacement cycles over the last 24 hours and this should continue. The hurricane will also be moving over progressively warmer waters of 82-85 degrees over the next 24-96 hours. Nearly all conditions are satisfied to make Frances a strong category 4 or even a category 5 as it passes north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. As with any powerful hurricane, eyewall replacement cycles and inner core re-organizations can result in fluctuations in intensity over a period of time. It is very rare for ATL hurricanes to maintain category 4 or 5 intensity for an extended period of time. In addition, Frances continues to grow outward with a circulation now encompassing over 500 miles with tropical storm force winds extending outward 105 miles from the center.

Track Forecast:

An incredible forecasting nightmare with this system with numerous variables, however the best US forecasters at NHC are working with this system do to its potential devastating effects.

Looking at a long loop IR image seems to indicate that France may be making the expected WNW turn. If this is the case, Frances is making the turn about 12 hours earlier than forecast and could pose a threat to the Leeward Islands. In fact if Frances does not gain more latitude it may end up very close to the northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands.

Through 72 hours the forecast track is fairly straightforward with a track to the W or WNW just north of the Lesser Antilles. This track is consistent with all dynamical aides and the tightly clustered tropical models. After 72 hours the spread begins to increase as different models have different synoptic scale features in place and handle now TS Gaston’s trough differently. The GFDL has the system brushing the Bahamas to the east and then heading NW. The AVN/GFS have a due W track through the southern Bahamas and directly toward S FL then into the central Gulf of Mexico. The NOGAPS is way to the right and moves the system towards Bermuda and will be disregarded. The UKMET has the hurricane in the central Bahamas. All the tropical models (BAMM, BAMS and BAMD) have the system aimed at the southern Bahamas. The official forecast is just right or north of the GFS and very close to the tropical guidance cluster. With this forecast, a very dangerous hurricane will pose a threat to the southern and central Bahamas around Thursday and Friday and a threat to a portion of the FL coast or FL Keys shortly after. One major fly in the ointment is TS Gaston and the trough it should leave behind along the east coast. This is not being factored in well by the models and could result in a more northward pull of Frances as it approaches the Bahamas.

Persons along the US East coast especially FL and the Gulf of Mexico should review hurricane preparedness plans and stock hurricane supplies. Now is the time for evacuation planning and the cutting of plywood not 12 hours before the storm hits. This is a serious storm that deserves attention and action if needed.

NOTE: A WC-130 hurricane hunter should be in Frances late Sunday and the GIV high altitude mission will be launched at 18Z Sunday. Data from these missions will be factored into the Monday AM guidance runs and will hopefully paint a better picture of what is in store.

Jeff Lindner

ticka1

08-28-2004, 06:58 PM

Here is one of the latest model maps. Jeff thanks for the update - as always - great work!

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

StingRay

08-28-2004, 07:31 PM

More scary pics:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

stormy

08-28-2004, 07:41 PM

ticka with that map who is the most reliable, with the track.
what a eye that looks so big

StingRay

08-28-2004, 07:57 PM

I think right now NHC is leaning toward the UKMET model, but I'd have to read the discussion again to make sure.

jeffl

08-28-2004, 08:15 PM

The NHC track is close to the UKMET model and just north of the GFS (not shown). I put faith in the BAMD model as it is for deep tropical systems such as Frances. The tropical models have done well so far, so I put some degree of faith in them as well.

I would toss the NOGAPS and the GFDL seems to be way to the right, however it may be on the right thinking with the trough left by now strong TS Gaston.

Canelaw99

08-28-2004, 08:22 PM

Hey all! New to this board...yikes...I may very well be in the path of Frances....not so happy about that idea.

archergirl66

08-28-2004, 08:28 PM

Welcome, Canelaw99!

And for you weather gurus, if it does indeed aim for S. Florida, where might the steering dynamics dictate it goes next? Off out into the Atlantic, or west into the GoM?

-gina-

jeffl

08-28-2004, 08:36 PM

If it hits S FL or the Keys it will likely move into the GOM. This would mean a stronger ridge to the north and the hurricane would follow the southern edge of the ridge W to WNW until it reaches the western edge and weakness.

This is highly specualtive, but this would likley mean a second US landfall along the Gulf coast of the US from Alabama to Texas.

It appears Frances may be headng more west than WNW in the last few frames and is looking a little sickly. This is way ahead of the forecasted turn and could mean an even further south and west track. Will have to watch and make sure it is not a wobble.

Jeff

ticka1

08-28-2004, 08:36 PM

Note: Our forecast products are unofficial. Please read our disclaimer (http://www.independentwx.com/disclaimer).

IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 28 August 2004 - 9:30 PM EDT

Hurricane Frances

Frances has continued to slowly intensify after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle yesterday evening. Maximum sustained winds are now 115 knots, making it a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Conditions are conducive for slow development, with the exception being only slight southwest shear, which is having little to no effect on Frances' current intensity. In 36 to 72 hours, the hurricane will be located south of the subtropical ridge, and upper level winds could become even more favorable for development, in addition to very warm sea surface temperatures. Therefore, it is quite possible for Frances to achieve catastrophic Category 5 status before reaching the Bahamas. Slow intensification with only minor fluctuations are anticipated over the next 5 days.

Satellite imagery over the past 12 hours has shown more of a west-northwest movement, especially within the past 3 to 6 hours. This is the long awaited turn to the west that has been forecast over the last few days. All of the available model guidance coming in over the last few days has shown a stronger western Atlantic ridge than what was previously progged. As a result, all of the model guidance is shifting west. The GFS model is furthest south, taking Frances through the Florida Keys just north of Cuba. The latest run of the tropical model suite that just became available has once again shifted further south, and is now just north of the GFS run. The UKMET is forecasting a landfall near Miami in 5 days, and it may shift even further next run based on some of the other guidance coming in this evening. Meanwhile, the latest run of the European model takes Frances into Georgia or South Carolina within 8 to 10 days. The CMC is forecasting a North Carolina threat and finally the NOGAPS is still out to lunch. The NOGAPS should be discounted, the westward shift in the European since yesterday should be noted, and the CMC is not the most reliable model for tropical cyclone prediction. With these things in mind, the southern solution seems most reasonable.

Due to model trends, consistency, and satellite trends, the most likely track is one south of Vero Beach. Keep in mind that this is a first call and that even the Carolinas are not completely out of the woods.

Tropical Storm Gaston

Gaston has been intensifying at a rather high pace over the past 12 hours. Just this morning, the system consisted of an exposed low-level circulation and a minimal, ragged convective pattern. This evening is a completely different picture. The satellite has greatly improved, with an asymmetrical but noticeable central dense overcast. Outflow is well defined in the north and east quadrants, but slightly restricted elsewhere from moderate westerly flow undercutting the bottom flank of the storm. Satellite estimates from the Satellite Analysis Branch and other sources remain about 3.5, which correlates to 55 knots. The latest aircraft reconnaissance report supports this intensity and even indicates a closed eyewall has formed. The synoptic environment around Gaston is fairly favorable, with relatively low vertical wind shear and warm Gulf Stream ocean temperatures. Continued steady strengthening is anticipated over the next 18 to 24 hours while over water, and Gaston should easily become a minimal hurricane by late morning tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are expected to be 65 to 75 knots at landfall. If a period of rapid intensification commences, then winds could approach borderline category 2 strength before coming ashore.

The motion of Gaston has been erratic today, with a slow northwestward drift. However, a more defined motion to the west-northwest should begin soon as flow from a ridge of high pressure off the mid-Atlantic increases. On this track, the storm only has about 18 to 24 hours left over water, as mentioned above. Model guidance is tightly clustered on a landfall near or slightly north of Charleston, South Carolina. This scenario seems very reasonable based on the steering pattern. After landfall late tomorrow afternoon, a deep-layer trough will begin to come into the picture and result in a turn more towards the north, through the North Carolina coastal plain, and then northeast out to sea. By this time, Gaston should be intertwined with the trough and transitioning into a weaker extratropical system.

All residents in the path of Gaston are urged to stay tuned to statements provided by the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service offices, and local stations.

jeffl

08-28-2004, 08:37 PM

Hey all! New to this board...yikes...I may very well be in the path of Frances....not so happy about that idea.

Keep a very close eye on the system. Have your hurricane plan and supplies ready and be prepared to put them into use by the middle of this week.

StingRay

08-28-2004, 08:42 PM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290228
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004

...FRANCES TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 635
MILES...1025 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES HAS BEGUN TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST...AS FORECAST...AND
IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...AND FRANCES COULD REACH NEAR CATEGORY FIVE
INTENSITY ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N... 53.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

StingRay

08-28-2004, 08:44 PM

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290229
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR FRANCES ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE LAST
FORECAST CYCLE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES
TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER MOTION IN THE EARLY FORECAST
PERIODS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POSITIONS.

FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD
REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 18.3N 53.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.8N 54.5W 120 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.4N 56.3W 125 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 19.8N 58.6W 125 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 20.1N 61.1W 125 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 21.2N 66.3W 125 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 22.4N 70.6W 125 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT

ticka1

08-28-2004, 10:10 PM

Well I'm looking at other information and there are folks telling people in Texas that they are in the clear? Is that a safe assumption to be making with Frances that far out and so many variables not known?

Jeff do you feel Texas is in the clear from getting anything from Frances?

Comments and forecast welcome!

StingRay

08-29-2004, 04:28 AM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290837
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

...FRANCES ON TRACK...HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST OR ABOUT 590
MILES... 950 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS..

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND FRANCES COULD REACH NEAR CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY
LATER TODAY. AN AIRFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...18.6 N... 54.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

StingRay

08-29-2004, 04:29 AM

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290841
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

FRANCES IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING HURRICANE AND IF WE FAST FORWARDED
BACK TO LAST YEAR I WOULD THINK I WAS LOOKING AT ISABEL. INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FOR FRANCES REMAIN NEAR 115 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES
TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY PERIODS APPEARS
TO BE HOW THEY HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ITS
ORIENTATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY
PERIODS ARE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS.

FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD
REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 18.6N 54.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 19.0N 55.4W 120 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 57.4W 120 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 19.9N 59.8W 120 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 20.3N 62.3W 120 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 21.5N 67.3W 120 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 22.8N 71.4W 125 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 25.0N 75.0W 125 KT

StingRay

08-29-2004, 05:12 AM

This mornings IR:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

Long Range Shot:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

StingRay

08-29-2004, 05:43 AM

Latest IR Loop shows track DUE WEST. This could be wobble, will have to wait and see if it settles into this path.............ominous my friends, ominous.

ticka1

08-29-2004, 05:53 AM

Is there a cold front moving down through Texas next weekend - like 144 hours out? I was watching a loop of one of the models and that's what it looks like. I am still trying to learn how to read those model runs - so any help, assistance and guidance would be greatly appreciated.

And yes StingRay I see the WEST motion - could be a weeble wooble or it could be the direction change. NHC for the second run is putting Frances more north - not sure what is up with that when she is going WEST.

Ticka1

Canefan_of_the_gatorland

08-29-2004, 08:56 AM

NHC did say West movement but track was unchanged from 5am and it looks like they think it may go up the east coast of Fla... destination unknown... Hopefully they will pick a point soon. They are apparently going with the 12z NHC Models http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
and on this map, it pretty much looks like an east coast fla threat with the exception of the UKMET which has it near Tampa in 5 days and the GFDL aiming for the Carolinas(possible). Track/cone cool link http://www.huracan.net/current/st6/

ticka1

08-29-2004, 10:03 AM

WTNT31 KNHC 291439
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

...FRANCES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EXPECTED TO
TO REACH THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...
885 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY OF FRANCES THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.6 N... 54.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$WWWW

archergirl66

08-29-2004, 10:28 AM

I know I'm completely clueless, but I just don't get how the forecast path keeps insisting Frances is going to aim for the east coast... Are they forecasting some drastic turn to the north? Because even my totally untrained eye can see that she is just not headed that way. What am I missing?

-gina-

robinsonfirstaid

08-29-2004, 10:34 AM

ticka1

08-29-2004, 10:36 AM

I agree Gina, seems like the NHC is hitting on one model output and going with that. Don't know what they see that's going to make the turn - but then they are the professionals and I'm the amatuer.

Here is the latest model plots link.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

ticka1

08-29-2004, 10:38 AM

Hey All,

I've Been Reviewing All Weather Maps And Data And I Think Hurricane Frances WILL Make Land-Fall At Or Near Mid Florida. If This Storm Does NOT Keep The Westward Track Then I Do Think I Could Be More North(GA., SC.)

Well This Is Idea Anyone Have Any Other Idea's??

Thanks,
B. Robinson
Robinsonfirstaid,

I think its anyone's guess right now. From the looks of the official NHC track it looks like Frances is going to turn and go up the EC or cross over the mid-section of Florida. I guess that's way everyone should keep an wary eye on her.

Canelaw99

08-29-2004, 10:56 AM

How reliable is the UKMET overall??? I'm just concerned that the NHC has this thing tracking a little north now, when the models, for the most part, aren't doing that. I know they're usually pretty on with these storms, but Charley & Andrew both showed us that these storms can't always be predictable....

Canefan_of_the_gatorland

08-29-2004, 11:56 AM

UKMET is an OK Model and now has shifted from miami to Cape Canaveral.... GFS has shifted from the Miami area to Brunswick, Ga... Canadian was earlier sayying Frances would track from Miami NNW to Jacksonville... Now slows it northwestward in the Bahamas as High rebuilds to the North.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_model.html
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
http://weather.unisys.com

Canelaw99

08-29-2004, 01:38 PM

Sheesh...these models are kinda all over the place. Some are drawing it north while others are pulling it across S. FL. I can see why these things are so hard to predict! Thanks for the links...

jeffl

08-29-2004, 02:05 PM

Closed wall..

949mb pressure.

Max flight level winds 97kts in the SW Quad.

stormy

08-29-2004, 02:07 PM

So jeff1 what does that mean? Is she going to move North or stay wnw?

jeffl

08-29-2004, 02:23 PM

The vortex message is just what the recon is finding in the storm... A closed eyewall and a pressure of 949mb.. only one mb higher than NHC suspected. The max flight level winds in the SW quad were 97kts, but the winds are usually stronger to the NE and E (this area has not yet been sampled).

As far as the track goes, Frances has been moving W to slightly just north of west today and this is about 6 hours sooner than forecast. I suspect TS watches will have to be issued for the Islands at 400pm based on the current west movement.

I want to wait until the GIV high altitude data is put into the models this evening to get fancy with the forecast track. This is very critical data and could result in wholescale changes to the expected forecast track of both the models and NHC. However, I will review the current data and forecast model trends from today and have a detailed write up out within the next hour or so.

Jeff L

robinsonfirstaid

08-29-2004, 02:40 PM

Hey Jeff,

Thanks For All The Information It Helps. I'm Wanting To See Your Write Up!!

Thanks,
B. Robinson

Canelaw99

08-29-2004, 03:28 PM

I'm looking forward to seeing that write-up as well. To me, it seems that the storm has made a westerly turn a little earlier than anticipated because the cone of possibile strike areas has seemingly shifted a little south. I know that it now includes the northern islands and Puerto Rico, while it didn't seem to include them earlier. I am just curious to see what others think about this...whether it is west earlier than expected....the potential for impact in S. FL....the possible future tracks, etc....

jeffl

08-29-2004, 03:32 PM

Dangerous hurricane Frances moving west

A threat to the Bahamas and the US coast late this week into Labor Day weekend.

Tropical Storm Watches issued for the northern Leeward Islands

Current Analysis:

WC-130 recon. aircraft reported a central pressure of 949mb and flight level winds of 97kts on their first penetration this afternoon. A recent supplementary message indicated 112kt winds.

Frances has been moving generally west today with a few wobbles to the WNW and NW. The overall motion has been mainly W to just slightly north of due west. The hurricane was very well organized this morning, but since then the CDO has become rather ragged and it appears the system ingested dry air into the SW quadrant. The well-defined eye has shrunk greatly and is not as clearly defined as it was earlier. In fact the latest images show some erosion of the SW eyewall . Frances may be undergoing weak SW or S shear as the outflow is restricted to the SW and S compared to near excellent outflow to the north.

Intensity:

The current slight weakening is likely temporary and Frances is forecast to maintain category 4 intensity through the entire forecast cycle. It is difficult for ATL hurricanes to maintain such strong intensities for such a long period of time, however conditions ahead of the system appear to be favorable for intensification. In fact, Frances will be moving over progressively warmer water over the next 48 hours with high latent heat content. Short term fluctuations can be expected with eyewall replacement cycles and un-forecast bouts of shear or dry air entrainment. The main point, is however, that Frances should remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next 5 days.

Track:

As mention Frances is right on her projected forecast track or maybe a tad south. The west turn well forecasted occurred a little earlier than expected and this may bring tropical storm conditions to the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands over the next 48 hours.

Both the tropical and global forecast models are fairly tightly clustered through 48 hours with a track to the W or just north of west. This will take the hurricane north of the Lesser Antilles and to the region just SE of the southern Bahamas by Thursday. After 72 hours the forecast guidance splits into 2 camps with one camp taking the hurricane into S or C FL and then into the E Gulf of Mexico and the other camps having a more NW turn with a threat up the E coast in the GA/SC/NC regions. The models are having different ridge intensities and positions which ultimately determine the future of the hurricane. In additional other variable has been added…TS Hermine which has formed about 300 miles SE of NC and the remains of TS Gaston which made landfall this morning. It is unclear at this time how TS Hermine could affect the long term track of Frances.
With fairly good certainty, it appears we will have a large and dangerous hurricane near the southern Bahamas around Thursday or Friday of this week and a potential threat to FL shortly thereafter. Always remember that the track error at 4 and 5 days can be very large.

The NHC track is just right of the southern guidance cluster and left of the northern cluster or right down the middle and close to the UKMET. It is somewhat interesting to note, however that besides the GFS and UKMET, some of the other modes have shifted more south and west today slightly. The intensity of an approaching central US trough by Thursday and Friday of this week will be the determining factor in the weakness of the ridge to the north of Frances and the overall final track. This trough must be strong enough and far enough south to grab the hurricane and influence its track. Frances is a large storm and will likely be creating its own environment by Thursday or Friday, so it will take a good break down in the ridge and a strong trough to pull this thing north.

The NOAA surveillance mission is currently in progress and this data will be fed into the models tonight. This should help determine the intensity of the ridge and it position and give a better feel of the long range trends.

Jeff Lindner

windy

08-29-2004, 04:20 PM

will track towards the GA/NC coast. It looks like Frances will come pretty close to florida. I know Alot has to play in the track. Like troughs ect.. I think by early this week the NHC should pretty much have a handle on the track forecast. :crazy-eye

jeffl

08-29-2004, 05:44 PM

Latest message:

pressure: 952mb

pressure 954mb

It appears the pressure may be rising

Winds 118kts in the NW quad. and 112kts at 913mb

robinsonfirstaid

08-29-2004, 06:15 PM

Hey All,

Well This Storm Is The Only One Who Knows Where It's Going. Most Models Show That This Storm Will Be Close To The S.E US But The Ridge Building In Behind T.S gaston will keep this storm away from GA. SC. NC. But The Long Range Model Shows It's Making Land-Fall At Miami Fl. And Going Back Into The Gulf, This Long Range Model HAS Shifted Within The Last 24 Hours Making The Track A Little North Of The Last Track.

What Do You Guys Think??,

Thanks,

B. Robinson

PS: I Have A Great Picture Below!!

StingRay

08-29-2004, 06:22 PM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 292358
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

...POWERFULL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...SAINT MAARTEN....ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...AND ANTIGUA. THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED TO THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST OR ABOUT 480
MILES... 772 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

MEASUREMENTS FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...204 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...204 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT WAS 954
MB...28.17 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...18.8 N... 55.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

StingRay

08-29-2004, 06:23 PM

000
WTNT41 KNHC 292107
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST REACHED THE EYE OF FRANCES AND MEASURED
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 949 MB IN A 12 NMI EYE WITH FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 112 KNOTS. A DROP MEASURED 127 KNOTS AT THE 913 MB LEVEL
BUT THIS NUMBER IS NOT VERY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE WINDS.
SINCE THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 115 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER. ON SATELLITE...THE CLOUD
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE BUT WITH A LESS DISTINCT EYE.
FRANCES COULD EITHER INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE...BUT MOST LIKELY
...THE HURRICANE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.
NEVERTHERLESS..IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE.

FRANCES HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES
AT 8 KNOTS. AS FORECAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN BUILDING
AND EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS RIDGE WILL FORCE
THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH 5 DAYS. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE TRACK A
LITTLE MORE THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT
INCLUDES BOTH THE GFS AND THE UK MODELS WHICH PREVIOUSLY BROUGH THE
HURRICANE TO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE MODELS
ARE STILL BRINGING THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO FLORIDA BUT AT A
HIGHER LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEXT GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DATA GATHER FROM THE GPS DROPSONDES TO
BE LAUNCH FROM THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET. WE WILL CAREFULLY
MONITOR THE IMPACT ON THESE NEW OBSERVATIONS IN TONIGHT'S RUNS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 18.8N 55.6W 115 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 19.1N 57.0W 120 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 19.5N 59.5W 120 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 20.0N 62.0W 120 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 20.5N 64.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 69.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 73.0W 125 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 25.5N 76.5W 125 KT

ticka1

08-29-2004, 06:41 PM

Okay what's up with the west track now? Looks like the models are changing once again.

StingRay

08-29-2004, 06:54 PM

Haven't checked models, hang on.

StingRay

08-29-2004, 06:59 PM

Spaghetti run:

Canelaw99

08-29-2004, 07:24 PM

What's going on with these things??? :crazy-eye

jeffl

08-29-2004, 07:40 PM

The models have changed little and this is the 18Z run. The critical runs will be Monday once the recon and NOAA high altitude data are in.

Frances took a significant WSW wobble this evening, but has since recovered on a heading of about 280 degrees. I still think there is S shear over the system, as it is nowhere near as organized as earlier today.

The NHC track appears to be right down the middle of the guidance cluster and very close to the UKMET.

I have looked at a few things closely this evneing and am a little more comfortable with a W track through 72 hours followed by a turn to the WNW close to the southern Bahamas. After that I think a more NW track a little right of NHC is possible with a potential threat more northward along the FL coast. By no means does this clear any areas of S FL or the Keys.

One note: a faster forward speed could keep Frances more west of the guidance cluster and south of the NHC track in the extended. Also any major short term track shift to the south would bring a larger part of the circulation toward the mountains of Hispanola, which could weaken the system and alter the final track.

Still numerous variable remain. I hope the jet data will resolve some of the spread we have this evening.

I will be forwarding Ticka my hurricane prep. packet Monday and I think she is going to place it on the site if she can. I have to do a little doctoring cutting some of the local info out.

Jeff L

StingRay

08-29-2004, 08:07 PM

Jeff, what do you foresee those changes being, if you don't mind using your crystal ball that is?

ticka1

08-29-2004, 08:10 PM

Yes Jeff email it to me and I'll will make sure it all gets posted. You are doing a great public service getting this information for everyone to access and use.

Patricia aka Ticka1

ticka1

08-29-2004, 08:12 PM

Any chance Frances coming into the GOM? Or is that out of the equation now?

StingRay

08-29-2004, 08:13 PM

Hush your mouth, you'll JINX us!!!

jeffl

08-29-2004, 08:16 PM

The GIV data can resolve things human forecasters cannot. We can view water vapor and IR images and look at guidance, but the GIV jet get actual hard data from a data void region.

Feeding data into models is the best thing you can do if you want good forecast--that one the number one lesson from my Models class. The more data and the better the obsevations the better the output in the end.

The data will also tell us the inteinsity of the ridge to the north and the intensity of the trough with Gaston and Hermine. These are cirtical variables could could pontentially be resolved.

I have no clue what the models will do with this data, but the new 270 heading in the 00Z guidance is a little troubling.

The 00Z guidance is now a little south of the 18Z guidance in some cases. The NHC track is a little north of the model cluster and if Frances continues due west she will be south of all guidance in about 12 hours.

With the slight south of due west heading this evneing and new guidance shifting and clustering a little more south and west, I am finding it harder and harder to keep Frances off the US coast ESPECIALLY FL.

Jeff L

jeffl

08-29-2004, 08:21 PM

Any chance Frances coming into the GOM? Or is that out of the equation now?

The GOM is not out of the woods yet, and it probably won't be until we know for sure where Frances will end up. A S FL hit raises the stakes in the GOM, and a more north hit would reduce the GOM chances.

Right now, I say it is a 50/50 shot at hitting FL and crossing into the Gulf. As far, as the west Gulf, it is not likley but there always remains a chance until it is inland.

robinsonfirstaid

08-29-2004, 08:58 PM

BREAKING NEWS:

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA ...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND SABA. ST MARTIN AND ST BARTHELEMY MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

We have a little bit of good news tonight- Frances is weaker now and is no longer forecast to become a category four hurricane again. This can change however, so do not think that means we can relax in the least. The forecast now requires watches and warnings for portions of the northeast Caribbean Sea- outlined above. Once Frances passes that region, it looks like it will begin to turn more to the northwest- and it just might spare the Bahamas with a direct hit. This is the beginning of an increased threat to the Southeast United States- though nothing official has been said about that. Just keep monitoring Frances- we have time on our side right now.

robinsonfirstaid

08-29-2004, 08:59 PM

THIS LOOKS LIKE IT'S 100% GOING TO MAKE LANDFALL!!

StingRay

08-29-2004, 09:09 PM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 300253
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

...POWERFUL HURRICANE CONTINUES ON SLOW WESTWARD TRACK...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA
...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND
SABA. ST MARTIN AND ST BARTHELEMY MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH
AND NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.2 WEST OR ABOUT 455
MILES... 730 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A RECENT U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT
REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.9 N... 56.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

StingRay

08-29-2004, 09:10 PM

000
WTNT41 KNHC 300248
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION WAS IN THE HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS ENDING AT 23Z. THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB...UP
FROM 949 MB A FEW HOURS EARLIER. 954 MB CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 108
KT. THE HIGHEST 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 118 KT AT A
POSITION ABOUT 9 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...90 PERCENT OF 118
KT REDUCES TO A SURFACE WIND OF 106 KT. THERE WERE SEVERAL GPS
DROPSONDES NEAR THE EYEWALL. THE HIGHEST SURFACE WIND DETERMINED
FROM THESE DROPS WAS 107 KT USING APPROPRIATE REDUCTION TECHNIQUES.
THEREFORE THE MAXIMUM WIND IN FRANCES IS REDUCED FROM 115 TO 110 KT.

THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE WIND NEAR 110 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
THEN REDUCES IT TO UNDER 100 KT AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFDL IS
SIMILAR. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE BUT THESE MODELS
ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL AS THE SHIPS AND GFDL. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS 110 KT THROUGH 120 HOURS AS A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE
GUIDANCE...REALIZING THAT OUR SKILL AT INTENSITY FORECASTING LEAVES
SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED...ESPECIALLY AT LONGER FORECAST PERIODS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/07. THE GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 120 HOURS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS 50 TO
100 N MI SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEN COMES
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY 120 HOURS WHEN ALL OF THE MODELS TEND TO
CONVERGE ON THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS
AND IS SIMILAR TO IT AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

NOAA HAS FLOWN A SYNOPTIC SCALE MISSION TONIGHT AND DATA FROM THIS
MISSION IS BEING USED TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. THIS
HOPEFULLY IMPROVED GUIDANCE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE NEXT ADVISORY
PACKAGE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 18.9N 56.2W 110 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 19.1N 58.2W 110 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 19.5N 60.8W 110 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 20.0N 63.4W 110 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 20.8N 66.2W 110 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 22.5N 71.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 24.5N 74.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 77.0W 110 KT

ticka1

08-30-2004, 04:27 AM

WTNT31 KNHC 300859
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...FRANCES CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND SABA. ST MARTIN AND
ST BARTHELEMY MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH AND NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 385
MILES... 620 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...19.0 N... 57.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

WWWW

Coriolis

08-30-2004, 06:17 AM

HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004

..POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUING WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND SABA. ST MARTIN AND
ST BARTHELEMY MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH AND NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...19.2 N... 58.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

Canefan_of_the_gatorland

08-30-2004, 08:33 AM

Well our local news has started beefing up the storm a bit (Quote below). I wanna say its going to the Carolinas as the NHC has yet to pick a landfall point though it is pointing right at us at the end of the 5day. When the NHC picked a landfall with Isabell last year 5 days out, they were remarkably close. 2 Models (UKMET,NOGAPS) are mostly saying the central and northeast Florida coast is gonna get it... The GFS which had said it would skirt Florida and head for the Carolinas now say between Jacksonville and Savannah will get a landfall... The storm has sped up a bit since 5AM and not sure if that was expected and what effect if any that will have on the track...May adjust it back to the Left as it may be closer to Fla by the time it gets picked up by the Trough.

From first coast news....
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/topstories/news-article.aspx?storyid=23224
JACKSONVILLE, FL -- Hurricane Frances has lost a little of its umph, but it is still a strong hurricane with wind speeds of 120 mph, which makes it a Category 3. There are tropical storm warnings for the northern Leeward Islands and a hurricane watch for the Virgin Islands.

As of 5 a.m., the hurricane was centered about 385 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands and was moving west-northwest near 10 mph. Its current coordinates are 19.0 N 57.3 W

A ridge of high pressure is steering it to the west. Large swells will begin to reach us by late wednesday. Our weather will be impacted by Frances as early as Friday.

Those of us on the First Coast should check our hurricane supplies.

Frances is the sixth named storm of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. All storms this season have formed in August.

Canelaw99

08-30-2004, 08:55 AM

Ok, so what do we make of the 11am discussion by the NHC?? Primarily, this part:

"ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE GFDL MODEL
FORECAST TRACK HAS GENERALLY BEEN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN."

Oy...this storm is killin' me! :crazy-eye

jeffl

08-30-2004, 09:06 AM

***Dangerous Hurricane Frances moving west***

***Hurricane Watches in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands.***

***Frances a threat to the Bahamas and the SE US coast from Fl to the Carolinas.***

Frances is looking better organized this morning after a being dealt a bout of southerly shear overnight. The eye has redeveloped within the CDO and the outflow is improving to the south. The morning recon. reported 103kts and a closed eyewall so Frances remains a category 3 hurricane.

Intensity Forecast:

Unexpected shear caused the weakening overnight, however all ingredients appear to be in place for intensification over the next 48 hours. High oceanic heat content and good upper level outflow should result in intensification and Frances may once again become a category 4 hurricane. Eyewall replacement cycles and any unexpected shears may cause fluctuations in intensity through the forecast periods, however Frances should remain a dangerous category 3 hurricane throughout the forecast cycle. The SHIPS model is suggesting an increase in SW shear over Frances at the end of the 5 day track as it moves over the northern Bahamas.

Track:

As I suspected yesterday the NOAA GIV data has helped to greatly improve the track guidance this morning. The models are in good agreement on a W track through 48 hours and then a turn to the WNW and NW as the hurricane follows the southwestern side of the sub-tropical ridge. An approaching trough is now forecast to be strong enough to pick Frances up and turn her NW and possibly north, however this will likely happen too late to avoid a US landfall. Guidance is now strongly clustered along a track to just east of the southern Bahamas in about 48 hours and then a turn toward the NW keeping the core of the hurricane just east of the eastern Bahamas. Toward the end of the forecast cycle (Friday) much of the track guidance has the hurricane very near or over the northern Bahamas tracking to the NW. The GFS is now showing a landfall along the SC coast near Charleston, however much of the other guidance has a landfall further south between Cape Canaveral and Jacksonville FL. The latest NHC track has the hurricane dangerously close to the E FL coast early Saturday morning.

Given the latest NHC and model track forecast and dangerous category 3 / 4 hurricane will be approaching the southern Bahamas late Wednesday and threatening the entire Island chain Thursday and Friday. After Friday, a US landfall appears possible somewhere from central FL to NC over the Labor Day weekend.

***New Update***

New GFDL run has shifted the track more west and the recon. is reporting Frances has increased her forward speed. An increase in forward speed will bring the system west faster and the ridge to the north will not have as much time to weaken before Frances approaches the US coast. This leaves the potential for a S FL or Keys landfall.

Persons along the SE US coast from S FL to NC need to closely monitor the progress of this storm and have all hurricane supplies and preparedness plans in place by the middle of this week.

Jeff Lindner

Calistar

08-30-2004, 10:02 AM

***Dangerous Hurricane Frances moving west***

***New Update***

New GFDL run has shifted the track more west and the recon. is reporting Frances has increased her forward speed. An increase in forward speed will bring the system west faster and the ridge to the north will not have as much time to weaken before Frances approaches the US coast. This leaves the potential for a S FL or Keys landfall.

Persons along the SE US coast from S FL to NC need to closely monitor the progress of this storm and have all hurricane supplies and preparedness plans in place by the middle of this week.

Jeff Lindner Does this mean that there's a likelyhood that Frances could end up in the GOM? And if so, where do you "suspect" that she could end up making landfall?

robinsonfirstaid

08-30-2004, 10:06 AM

HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST TO REGAIN CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH AS IT HEADS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES

It appears now that Frances will make at least a direct threat to the Southeast U.S. coast. What I mean is that just by looking at the forecast track and its normal cone of probability, somewhere along the Southeast coast could easily get hit by this hurricane. The 5 day position is just off the Florida east coast at 135 mph. This reminds me so much of Floyd back in 1999. The track keeps shifting more and more northward with time and it is possible that Georgia and the Carolinas could have a direct hit. My best advice to you all is to begin preparing now. You know that the stores will get busy, batteries will begin running short as well as other essential supplies. Go now and stock up on needed items- if you don't use them for Frances- you might before the season is over. Remember it's only August- for another day. Stay tuned to your local media outlet.

Most Model's Now Show This Storm With A More NW Turn(SC. NC.).

StingRay

08-30-2004, 10:32 AM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301431
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND SABA. THE GOVERNMENT
OF FRANCE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST MARTIN AND ST
BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR VIEQUES IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
BRITISH AND NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST
JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE ISLAND OF CULEBRA.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES... 480 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE FRANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...19.3 N... 58.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

StingRay

08-30-2004, 10:33 AM

000
WTNT41 KNHC 301425
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

THE LAST RECON MISSION HAD 107 KT WINDS OUTBOUND IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT EYEWALL. THIS DOES NOT QUITE SUPPORT A MAXIMUM SURFACE
WIND OF 105 KT....BUT ON THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
HURRICANE IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...SO THE INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 105 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...
AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THEREFORE
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FRANCES HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ABOUT
275/11. FRANCES IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT WILL
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOW MUCH
THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IS CRITICAL FOR THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF
THIS HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE GFDL MODEL
FORECAST TRACK HAS GENERALLY BEEN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN.

IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A
POINT AND FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE
ERRORS OF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 19.3N 58.7W 105 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 19.4N 60.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 19.9N 63.5W 110 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.6N 66.2W 115 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 21.5N 68.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 23.5N 73.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 25.5N 76.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 78.5W 115 K

StingRay

08-30-2004, 10:34 AM

New pic:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

StingRay

08-30-2004, 10:34 AM

And another one:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

StingRay

08-30-2004, 10:37 AM

Models as of this morning:

jeffl

08-30-2004, 11:13 AM

Does this mean that there's a likelyhood that Frances could end up in the GOM? And if so, where do you "suspect" that she could end up making landfall?

A faster west track would bring Frances closer to the GOM , however the guidance is suggesting a NW turn and is tightly clustered with a track toward the C and NE FL coast.

If Frances did enter the GOM, I would image a threat to the coast east of New Orleans.

Canelaw99

08-30-2004, 12:24 PM

Is it me or does it seem the models have shifted south???

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_model.html :crazy-eye

ticka1

08-30-2004, 01:00 PM

WTNT31 KNHC 301746
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND SABA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST MARTIN AND ST BARTHELEMY. THE
GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THIS WATCH TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH AND NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE ISLAND OF CULEBRA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES... 310 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE OUTER
BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE ISLANDS BEGINNING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE FRANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...19.3 N... 59.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$WWWW

windy

08-30-2004, 02:24 PM

I kept hearing GOM and I knew that Frances would not be making a turn in that direction. I do believe she will come pretty close to Florida. But I think the landfall will be between GA/NC border going through GA. NC VA maybe Penn. I was looking at the forecast track and the curve it will make brings it close to these states I mentioned. But again it does need to be watched.

Here's the 11:30am report.
tropical wave is located just east of the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is well orgainized...and could become a tropical cyclone today.
Looks like tropics are heating up. Getting close to the peak of Sept.

stormy

08-30-2004, 02:51 PM

guys I am not seeing this, that is will go to the middle of Fla or ga. sc. when is this going to make a turn. I am tracking her myself and from what i here, I just dont understand. Could someone please explain this. thanks I see this as a gom or a south florida hurricane.

robinsonfirstaid

08-30-2004, 02:56 PM

LATEST NHC FORECAST AIMS DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES RIGHT AT THE FLORIDA EAST COAST

The news is not so good as of right now for Florida. The latest stats on Frances show a strong category four hurricane heading for the southeast coast of Florida in about five days. Do not focus on the exact point- but rather the area that could be affected. The fice day forecast is subject to large errors- and we're going to have to monitor this closely. No one in the Southeast U.S. should consider themselves "off the hook". Check out the tracking map link below and remember to listen to the advice of your LOCAL officials. We still have time before it all goes crazy with evacuations, etc. But use this time wisely to make sure your hurricane plan is ready to go

Thanks,
B. Robinson

StingRay

08-30-2004, 03:03 PM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 302038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...FRANCES STRENGTHENS...CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS AND SABA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THIS WATCH TO A WARNING LATER TODAY.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST.
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST.
CROIX.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES... 355 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER
THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE ISLANDS IN A
FEW HOURS.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...19.5 N... 60.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

StingRay

08-30-2004, 03:05 PM

000
WTNT41 KNHC 302024
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

REPORTS FROM A NOAA P-3 HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 948 MB AND THERE WAS A FLIGHT
LEVEL...700 MB...WIND OF 122 KT JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
BASED ON THESE DATA THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT.
THERE IS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY DUE TO INNER CORE PROCESSES...SUCH AS THE CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS THAT WERE OBSERVED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AND ALSO SEEN
IN TRMM AND SSM/I DATA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS PROBABLY
CONSERVATIVE.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT.

THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON TRACK...275/12. A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE IS
INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE BAD NEWS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IN THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS THROUGH 5 DAYS THAT COULD
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THIS RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME
SLOWING AND A SLIGHT BENDING OF THE TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
BEYOND 72 HOURS...BUT THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT
IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

ONCE AGAIN...IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS
NOT A POINT...ESPECIALLY A HURRICANE AS LARGE AS FRANCES...AND
FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE ERRORS OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 19.5N 60.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 19.7N 62.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 20.2N 64.8W 115 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 21.0N 67.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 22.0N 70.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 74.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 25.5N 77.0W 120 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W 120 KT

StingRay

08-30-2004, 03:06 PM

robinsonfirstaid

08-30-2004, 03:08 PM

So Guys And Gals,

This Storm I Really Don't Seeing Hitting Central Fl. I See It Hitting North Fl. South GA. Is You Guys Remember Floyd The Track Of That Keep Shifting North The Track On This Storm Has Shifted A LITTLE North But NOT Much.

Anyone And Everyone Where Do Think It Will Make Landfall??

Thanks,
B. Robinson

robinsonfirstaid

08-30-2004, 03:13 PM

Hey,

I Get Some Of My Infomation From www.hurricanetrack.com, they are a great team I love there work they do a great service to the people of the U.S.A!! keep up the great work!!

thanks,
B. Robinson

StingRay

08-30-2004, 03:46 PM

The only problem I have with you getting your information from there is that you should clearly state that the information is an OPINION and not a FACT. In the future, PLEASE state that this information is NOT coming from the NHC or any other governmental agency. I would not like to see panic take over on this board based on one person's opinion.

Thanks,
StingRay
Admin

jeffl

08-30-2004, 05:19 PM

Dangerous Hurricane Frances moving west and getting stronger

Frances a threat to the Bahamas and the US coast by this weekend.

Current Analysis:

The weak upper level shear has relaxed over the system today and a weak 200mb anticyclone has developed. This is creating very favorable conditions for intensification, and this is exactly what Frances has been doing. The recon. aircraft reported a pressure fall of 8mb and flight level winds up to 122kts (140mph). The surface wind reduction gives surface winds of about 125mph, but this may be on the low side. Frances has tracked due west today with a slight WNW wobble around midday. Frances is on track and just a tad south of guidance. One major factor today has been the increase in forward speed which was sort of expected. This increase in speed could have major track implications down the road.

Intensity:

Frances is moving over warm water with high oceanic heat content and upper level conditions are favorable for intensification. Frances is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle as confirmed by the double eyewalls in the recon data and a SSMI overpass. In fact the recon. report 3 separate wind maximas within the hurricane which is somewhat unusual. The official NHC forecast brings a category 4 hurricane into the Bahamas and towards FL by this weekend.

Track:

The sub-tropical ridge to the north of Frances has built in stronger than guidance was forecast, which is indicated by her increase in forward speed. After shifting right (east) this morning, most guidance has been shifting back to the left (west) this afternoon and are once again clustering on a track through the southern/central Bahamas and then through south and central FL. The reasoning for the left shift appears to be a model change, in which a ridge is forecast to build near Washington DC WSW into the Gulf of Mexico. This blocks the incoming trough that was forecast to pick up Frances yesterday and allows a much more west track. NHC has shifted their forecast track west today and stress even a greater westward adjustment may be needed. NHC has remained down the middle of an ever tightly clustering guidance suite.

The fast forward speed, building ridge to the north, and trending west of guidance raises the threat to S FL and then the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is strongly noted that track errors at 96 and 120 hours can be several hundred miles. In addition, one should not focus on the exact landfall pint, as Frances is a massive storm with hurricane force winds extending outward over 70 miles and tropical storm force winds extending outward over 140 miles.

What you should be doing right now in FL or the SE US:

Check hurricane supplies, if you do not have you need to get them

Make sure plywood is cut and ready to be placed over windows.

If in an evacuation zone prepare for possible evacuation late this week.

Review your primary and secondary evacuation routes, and decide on a destination.

Review your hurricane plan and discuss this with all family members.

Follow all advice given by local emergency management promptly and completely.

Frequently check for updates on the hurricane and shifts in forecast track from NHC and your local media.

Jeff Lindner,
meteorologist

jeffl

08-30-2004, 05:29 PM

Recon just reported 945mb pressure, a drop of 3 mb and a drop of 11mb since this morning.

Dropsonde reported 118 Kts at 30 meters above the surface. Surface wind may be close to 130-135mph.

The winds will be responding to the pressure falls, and I suspect a category 4 by tomorrow again if not late tonight.

ticka1

08-30-2004, 05:40 PM

windy

08-30-2004, 05:51 PM

robinsonfirstaid

08-30-2004, 06:14 PM

Hey,

Quick Update GFDL Model Shows It Making Land-Fall In SC.

Bye,
B. Robinson

jeffl

08-30-2004, 06:18 PM

I am looking at satellite pictures and noticing that she hasn't crossed 20 while crossing 60! Does this mean anything significant? With the pressure dropping this means she strenghtening - category and approaching PR. How far out do the hurricane winds stretch from the eye?
70 miles based on the recon. data. TS winds out 140 miles. Some parts of Puerto Rico will probably see TS force winds.

robinsonfirstaid

08-30-2004, 06:22 PM

Frances WIND BAND!! From My Local News Station!!

This Is A HUGE HURRICANE!!!

jeffl

08-30-2004, 06:28 PM

like Charley did. Now I do believe Frances will come close to Florida however the part about Frances going in the GOM I don't see it doing. A major Hurricane like Frances should be monitored and I agree but I'm not ruling out the EC from Florida to NC/VA border is out of the woods.

Even the 5pm discussion states this.
The hurricane remains on track...275/12. A deep-layer subtropical ridge is likely to prevail to the north of Frances over the next several days. Beyond 72 hours...some weakening of this ridge is indicated by the global models. The bad news for the Bahamas and Florida Peninsula is that there is no significant mid-latitude trough in the current model forecasts through 5 days that could substantially weaken this ridge. The official forecast shows some slowing and a slight bending of the track toward the northwest beyond 72 hours...but this forecast has been shifted a little left in comparison to the previous one. This is in good agreement with the consensus of the dynamical models.

*Once again...it is extremely important not to focus on the exact track...especially at 96 and 120 hours...because the hurricane is not a point...especially a hurricane as large as Frances...and forecasts at these extended time ranges can easily have errors of several hundred miles.

I take this as saying whatever the NHC forecasted may not be the exact track within 96-120 hrs. Extended time ranges have errors of several hundred miles. What I find confusing earlier the 11am discussion had Frances curving more towards the GA/ NC border. Now at 5pm it has it showing a direct hit in Florida. From their in the GOM. I don't buy this statement. I think theirs some iffy speculation as to where Frances is going. I think Frances is going up the EC. I personally would tell all posters to monitor Frances. It seems like the NHC is not to sure at this point where Frances will make landfall once it reaches the US.
:crazy-eye

I agree Windy, anywhere from NC to Key West is at risk right now with a higher risk along the central FL coast. This is still way in the long range and as I have said more than once track errors at 84 and 96 hours can be several hundred miles. This could mean a landfall in the outer banks or northern Cuba.

It strongly deepens on the forward motion of Frances, the intensity of the ridge to the north, and the potential for the central US trough to weaken the western edge of the ridge. I leave no possibilities closed right now, even a complete recurve into the ATL missing the US altogether. Some possibilities have more pull than others given the synoptic scale set up however.

I would just look at the 3-day track as that is what the track NHC is most confident in. NHC did not want to do 5 day forecasting, but were sort of force to do so by higher ups and the media. The media has turned it into a frenzy and is making NHC much more responsible for their tracks 5-days out than they should be held too. Sticking a map with a dot over Vero Beach right now and saying Sat PM is giving somewhat of a misleading message to the public, however it makes for very good TV and ratings.

StingRay

08-31-2004, 04:35 AM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 310839
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...CATEGORY THREE FRANCES CONTINUING WESTWARD TRACK NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...AND
NEVIS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...
GUADELOPUPE...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA... VIEQUES AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES... 205 KM...NORTH OF ST. MARTIN IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE
ISLANDS TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...19.9 N... 62.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

StingRay

08-31-2004, 04:37 AM

000
WTNT41 KNHC 310839
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FRANCES IS COMPLETING A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
REPORTS A 30-40 NM DIAMETER OUTER EYEWALL WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 121 KT AT 700 MB...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 949
MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINS OF THE EARLIER INNER
EYEWALL ARE STILL PRESENT. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOWS A WIND
MAXIMA OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13. FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WHICH HAVE MAJOR
IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE FRANCES WILL END UP. DATA FROM THE RECENT
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION HAD SOME INTERESTING EFFECTS ON THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A LEFT OUTLIER MOST OF
THE TIME...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW A RIGHT
OUTLIER...MOVING FRANCES NORTHWARD ALONG 77-78W AFTER 72 HR. THE
NOGAPS...WHICH HAS BEEN A RIGHT OUTLIER...IS NOW A LEFT OUTLIER
CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND UKMET
HAVE BOTH SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT AFTER 72 HR. GIVEN THE
LARGE CHANGES IN JUST ONE CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AT ALL...BASICALLY BEING AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. IT IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE UP TO 72 HR
AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE THEREAFTER.

WHEN THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS FINALLY DONE...FRANCES SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. IT WOULD NOT
BE A SURPRISE TO SEE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS...THE SHIPS...
GFDL...AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST CONDITIONS MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
AFTER ABOUT 48 HR. ALSO...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF OTHER
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES THAT CANNOT CURRENTLY BE FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 19.9N 62.8W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 20.4N 65.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 21.3N 67.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 22.2N 70.2W 120 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 23.2N 72.3W 120 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 25.0N 75.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 28.5N 81.5W 85 KT...INLAND

StingRay

08-31-2004, 04:39 AM

Models as of this morning:

StingRay

08-31-2004, 04:43 AM

From NWS Houston this morning:
500HPA ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL
LIKELY FORCE HURRICANE FRANCES INTO THE EASTERN GLFMEX SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO A
NORTH/NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. MEX POPS ARE OUTRAGEOUSLY
HIGH(30-50%) DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL DISCOUNT AND KEEP A DRY
FORECAST AS PARAMETERS FOR CONVECTION ARE UNFAVORABLE. WINDS/SWELLS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BUT WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

Canelaw99

08-31-2004, 06:14 AM

Well, I figured it was headed to the Gulf...wow...thanks for that StingRay! Now I just gotta figure out which part of FL it's going to cut across....ugh... :dunno: :biggrin:

ticka1

08-31-2004, 06:31 AM

WTNT31 KNHC 311142
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING WESTWARD...A LITTLE
STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH
INCLUDES GREAT INAGUA...LITTLE INAGUA...MAYAGUANA...AND FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...
GUADELOUPE...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA... VIEQUES AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES
...325 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. HOWEVER...
THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE
ISLANDS TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N... 63.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$WWWW

jeffl

08-31-2004, 06:52 AM

Hurricane Watches issued for the SE Bahamas

Large and very dangerous Hurricane Frances heading for the US coast.

Current Analysis:

Recon just reported in with 133kts and 138 kts flight level winds ( 155-160mph). The reduction factor gives surface winds of 135mph so once again Frances is a category 4. Frances has been moving west overnight, but appears to now be moving just north of due west.

Intensity:

Frances has completed an eyewall replacement cycle overnight and interestingly the recon continues to report three wind maximas within the hurricane. The shear should remains light and the sea surface warm and increasingly shallow ahead of the hurricane so additional strengthening is possible. Hard to time eyewall replacement cycles and unexpected bouts of shear may result in some fluctuations over the next 5 days.

Track:

It appears now that the US coastline will take a direct hit by a dangerous hurricane over the Labor Day weekend. Track guidance is fairly tightly clustered along a WNW track into the southern Bahamas and then a slight NW turn into some portion of the E FL coast Saturday. The main steering mechanism is the large sub-tropical ridge E and NE of Frances and a building high over the mid-Atl and NE US. Some models build the NE US ridge more and force France into S FL and then into the Gulf of Mexico. Other models have a weakness between the two ridges and allow Frances to turn more NW and even N with a landfall along the N FL coast into SC. The general consensus right now is for a landfall Saturday afternoon along the central FL coast just south of the Kennedy Space Center as a strong category 4 hurricane. It continues to be noted that forecast track errors 3-5 days out can be several hundred miles will potential landfalls from NC to the FL Keys.

Impacts:

Frances is a very large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending outward over 80 miles from the center and TS force winds extending outward over 145 miles from the center. Given the current track and forecast intensity from NHC a large and very dangerous category 4 will move into the Bahamas Thursday and Friday and then approach the central FL coast Saturday morning. Given the forecast landfall point south of Cape Canaveral a 160 mile swath of hurricane force winds will batter the FL east coast with a swath of TS force winds of close to 280 miles outward. The damage to the highly populated east Fl coast could be extreme, as many highly popular tourist destinations are built on the barrier islands. Given the current intensity forecast a large scale mass evacuation will have to begin by the end of this week as an estimated 1.0 million people and an additional amount of tourist will have to be moved out of storm surge zones.

Jeff Lindner

robinsonfirstaid

08-31-2004, 08:07 AM

Hey Guys,

Look At These Chart's I Found On The NWS Website They Say Land-Fall At NC.

I Don't Know?!?!

B. Robinson

ticka1

08-31-2004, 08:54 AM

The latest update issued by our board meterologist Jeff Lindner.

***Hurricane Watches issued for the SE Bahamas***

***Large and very dangerous Hurricane Frances heading for the US
coast.***

Current Analysis:

Recon just reported in with 133kts and 138 kts flight level winds (155-
160mph). The reduction factor gives surface winds of 135mph so once
again Frances is a category 4. Frances has been moving west overnight,
but appears to now be moving just north of due west.

Intensity:

Frances has completed an eyewall replacement cycle overnight and
interestingly the recon continues to report three wind maximas within
the hurricane. The shear should remains light and the sea surface warm
and increasingly shallow ahead of the hurricane so additional
strengthening is possible. Hard to time eyewall replacement cycles and
unexpected bouts of shear may result in some fluctuations over the
next 5 days.

Track:

It appears now that the US coastline will take a direct hit by a
dangerous hurricane over the Labor Day weekend. Track guidance is
fairly tightly clustered along a WNW track into the southern Bahamas
and then a slight NW turn into some portion of the E FL coast
Saturday. The main steering mechanism is the large sub-tropical ridge
E and NE of Frances and a building high over the mid-Atl and NE US.
Some models build the NE US ridge more and force France into S FL and
then into the Gulf of Mexico. Other models have a weakness between the
two ridges and allow Frances to turn more NW and even N with a
landfall along the N FL coast into SC. The general consensus right now
is for a landfall Saturday afternoon along the central FL coast just
south of the Kennedy Space Center as a strong category 4 hurricane. It
continues to be noted that forecast track errors 3-5 days out can be
several hundred miles with potential landfalls from NC to the FL Keys.

Impacts:

Frances is a very large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending
outward over 80 miles from the center and TS force winds extending
outward over 145 miles from the center. Given the current track and
forecast intensity from NHC a large and very dangerous category 4 will
move into the Bahamas Thursday and Friday and then approach the
central FL coast Saturday morning. Given the forecast landfall point
south of Cape Canaveral a 160 mile swath of hurricane force winds will
batter the FL east coast with a swath of TS force winds of close to
280 miles outward. The damage to the highly populated east FL coast
could be extreme, as many highly popular tourist destinations are
built on the barrier islands. Given the current intensity forecast a
large scale mass evacuation will have to begin by the end of this week
as an estimated 1.0 million people and an additional amount of tourist
will have to be moved out of storm surge zones.

Jeff Lindner

:

ticka1

08-31-2004, 09:04 AM

The latest update on Frances from the NHC - 11 a.m. Advisory for Tuesday Aug 31st.

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 27

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 31, 2004

the last reconnaissance plane earlier this morning reported amaximum flight level wind of 138 knots at 700 mb and a minimumpressure of 950 mb from a drop and an extrapolated pressure of944 mb. Satellite images show that Frances has an outstanding cloudpattern with a large eye...banding features and excellet outflow.The large eye can also be observed in the San Juan Puerto RicoDoppler radar. Initial intensity has been increased to 115 knots.Since the shear is low and the ocean is warm...some additionalstrengthening is possible. However...future changes in intensitywill probably be controlled by eyewall replacement cycles...aprocess rather difficult to forecast. The best option at this timeis to forecast fluctuations in intensity and keep the hurricaneas a category 4 on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale.

Frances is moving westward or 275 degrees at 13 knots. During thethe first 2 to 3 days...the hurricane will be moving between thewest and west-northwest steered by a strong subtropical rigde.Thereafter...the intensity of the ridge varies with the differentmodels. Consequently...some models bring the hurricane farther westor closer to the U.S. Coast than others. Overall...the trend of themodels since yesterday is to turn the cyclone to the northwestearlier and none of the reliable global models except the ECMWFbring the hurricane to extreme South Florida or the Keys. The mostsignificant change to the right is produced by the GFS which barelybrings the hurricane near the northeast Florida coast.However...it is normal for models to vary from run to run and Iwould rather wait for another model cycle to adjust the forecastmore the right...if necessary.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 31/1500z 20.0n 64.0w 115 kt 12hr VT 01/0000z 20.4n 66.1w 120 kt 24hr VT 01/1200z 21.5n 68.7w 125 kt 36hr VT 02/0000z 22.5n 71.0w 125 kt 48hr VT 02/1200z 23.5n 73.0w 125 kt 72hr VT 03/1200z 25.5n 76.5w 125 kt 96hr VT 04/1200z 27.5n 79.0w 125 kt120hr VT 05/1200z 30.5n 81.5w 115 kt

$$

robinsonfirstaid

08-31-2004, 09:08 AM

NOTE THIS PRODUCT IS NOT FROM THE NHC. SOURCE: www.hurricanetrack.com

UPDATE AS OF: 10:50 AM EDT, TUESDAY AUGUST 31

FRANCES NOW BACK TO CATEGORY FOUR AND THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED NORTH TO NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER AREA

Things just keep getting more and more complicated with Frances. The wind is now back up to a very dangerous 135 mph. This is a category four hurricane capable of severe damage. The forecast makes Frances even stronger as it approaches the coast- perhaps up to 145mph. The forecat track has changed now and is directing the hurricane farther north towards the FL/GA border- near Jacksonville. This means that Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas should be paying very close attention to this hurricane. Any change in track could result in devastating consequences for those who are not prepared. Follow the advice of your local officials. I am going to hammer that point home time and time again. The local authorities have their own hurricane plan which will be the best it can be at keeping YOU safe. Listen to them and you will do just fine.

windy

08-31-2004, 10:41 AM

You don't need to tell me twice to watch hurricane Frances. I've been watching Frances since she was out by the cape verde islands. I'm just curious to see where she goes once she nears the US EC. The NHC seems to be confused too. Frances is throwing everyone for a loop right now. :crazy-eye. The forecasted track & the models have been changing so much its really hard to tell where she will make landfall. I sure hope Florida is spared the full brunt of Frances. I really don't see Frances going in the GOM. I just can't imagine that right now. Not with a w wnw and a possible nw move so the NHC states. Well it will be quite interesting to track Frances. Take care windy.

Coriolis

08-31-2004, 10:54 AM

Windy -

Please do not get confused. This is a difficult system to track because of the variables. One thing that everyone should understand - DO NOT use the the center of the track as to where it will possibly go. There is it to large of a cone of error at this time - so still keep on your toes as it we will not get a better idea until maybe late Wed. or Thur.

Jim

jeffl

08-31-2004, 11:11 AM

Frances maintains her west direction as confirmed by the San Juan NEXRAD. A very well developed eye indeed, and the satellite appearance has improved over the last few hours. Next recon. will be in the system this afternoon.

Track guidance has shifted right this morning showing more of a threat to C and N FL. NHC 1000am adv has a direct hit at Jacksonville, FL with 140mph winds. This track will likley shift, but the overall trend has been northward. Do not focus on the exact landfall point as this is a very large storm with a large hurricane force wind radius

My past experience and climatology strongly support a landfall in the Carolinas with a sharp curve to the NW and N east of FL. It all hinges on the intensity of the ridge of high pressure over the mid ATL and a digging western US trough. Nobody is out of the woods from S FL to the Outer Banks.

Heed all advice given by local emergency mangement officials

Radar loop from San Juan:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.tjua.shtml

Bean

08-31-2004, 11:42 AM

Question? If Frances hits the EC in FL, what kind of trouble could that pose for Tampa. Supposed to go on a cruise Sunday, I think.

stormy

08-31-2004, 11:46 AM

Bean I dont think right now anybody knows exactly where she is going. Just keep a close eye on this and i am sure the cruise people will let you know if the trip is cancelled.

Coriolis

08-31-2004, 12:09 PM

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeseast/hurricane/color/0408311730.jpg

amy

08-31-2004, 12:20 PM

Based on what I have just read, landfall of Frances will not be in my vicinity. I'm sure that could change, but for now I feel relieved.

jeffl

08-31-2004, 12:29 PM

pressure down to 942mb

winds 140mph (100pm adv)

Flight level winds SE quad 105kts

StingRay

08-31-2004, 01:28 PM

Man, I go to school and all hell breaks loose. Tons of new members and Frances gets all riled up.

Two things to remember folks:
1. DO NOT PANIC. I realize Cat4 is catastrophic and that some of us are more than likely going to be in the danger zone, but panic leads to hysteria which leads to poor planning and costly mistakes. Take this time NOW to go over your supplies, to have an exit plan, to think CALMLY and RATIONALLY about what you MUST get accomplished rather than obsessing over WHERE the exact landfall will be.
2. DO NOT BECOME COMPLACENT. DO NOT underestimate what this storm can do and don't think for one second that just because you're safe now, trackwise, that the track will remain the same. These lovely, albeit deadly storms CAN have a mind of their own and frequently change it just to aggravate us humans.

As a side note to those of you possibly in harm's way, please check the emergency response/check in thread that I am preparing to start. ALL of you are in my prayers and thoughts and I will do whatever I can for you and I sure Ticka feels the same.

Coriolis

08-31-2004, 02:05 PM

069
URNT12 KNHC 311907
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1907Z
B. 20 DEG 22 MIN N
65 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2579 M
D. 50 KT
E. 226 DEG 084 NM
F. 323 DEG 123 KT
G. 238 DEG 011 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 13 C/ 3074 M
J. 24 C/ 3057 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/07
O. .1 /2 NM
P. AF985 1006A FRANCES OB 11
MAX FL WIND 137 KT NW QUAD 1735Z. SMALL HAIL IN SW EYEWALL.

ticka1

08-31-2004, 02:10 PM

Small hail in SW eyewall. Wow don't think I have ever seen that before. Is that something that happens frequently or infrequently in hurricanes?

ticka1

08-31-2004, 02:13 PM

If you want to leave us a contact number or email - please do so - I promise we will only use it if the storm hits your area and we don't hear from you.

I agree with Suzi on this - the key is to remind calm, PREPARE, and stay tuned to the NHC website for warnings and advisories.

stormy

08-31-2004, 02:18 PM

I agree with stingray, nobody is out of danger as of yet, look at what charley did. we need to stay calm and pay attention to where it might go. just be prepared at all times. Have your stuff ready and dont panic.

Coriolis

08-31-2004, 02:26 PM

With the exception of the solar glint - is a decent pic of Frances.

http://www.savannah-weather.com/poes/n16_quick.htm

amy

08-31-2004, 02:36 PM

jeffl

08-31-2004, 02:56 PM

Small hail in SW eyewall. Wow don't think I have ever seen that before. Is that something that happens frequently or infrequently in hurricanes?

Hurricanes are warm core systems, so it is unusal to hear about hail in them. I have never seen a recon. report with hail before. This is the second hail report out of Frances.

ticka1

08-31-2004, 03:04 PM

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 28
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2004

a reconnaissance plane just entered the eye of Frances. A dropmeasured a minimum pressure of 940 mb...and an extrapolatedpressure of 938 mb with a peak wind of 144 knots at 700 mb. Thestepped frequency microwave radiometer...sfmr...on board of theNOAA p-3 plane just measured 118 knots surface winds. Highresolution satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern hasimproved since this morning...the eye remains large and distinctand the outflow is excellent in all quadrants. T-numbers havereached 6.5 on the Dvorak scale. Initial intensity has beenincreased to 120 knots...making Frances a solid category four onthe Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. Since the hurricane is alreadythis strong...some fluctuations in intensity are expected duringthe next 3 to 4 days...and those fluctuations will be controlled inpart by eyewall replacement cycles. We will describe them as theyoccur since there is no skill in forecasting such processes.Nevertherless...Frances is expected to reach the U.S. Coast as amajor hurricane.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that the hurricane ismoving toward the west or 280 degrees at 15 knots. As indicatedpreviously... during the the first 2 to 3 days...the hurricane willbe moving between the west and west-northwest steered by a strongsubtropical ridge. Thereafter...the intensity of the ridge varieswith the different models and the forecast becomes uncertain.However...all models bring the hurricane toward the southeast coastof the United States in tracks ranging from southern Floridanorthward to the Carolinas....with a gradual decrease in forwardspeed. The official forecast is close to the global model consensuswhich...in fact...has shifted southward a little bit taking intoconsideration the new NOGAPS and GFDN runs. The Florida StateUniversity superensemble has also shifted a little bit southward.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 31/2100z 20.5n 65.9w 120 kt 12hr VT 01/0600z 21.1n 68.2w 125 kt 24hr VT 01/1800z 22.5n 71.0w 130 kt 36hr VT 02/0600z 23.7n 73.3w 130 kt 48hr VT 02/1800z 25.0n 75.5w 130 kt 72hr VT 03/1800z 26.6n 78.0w 125 kt 96hr VT 04/1800z 29.0n 81.0w 115 kt120hr VT 05/1800z 31.1n 82.5w 55 kt...inland

$$

stormy

08-31-2004, 03:29 PM

So Jeff1 Hail is not good, right does this mean anything

longtalltexan79

08-31-2004, 03:56 PM

OK. I'm staying calm and I'm all prepared should there be a change in Frances. Tonight I will move all the lawn furniture and flower pots inside. Better safe than sorry.

Today someone was purchasing plywood at Home Depot and pulled out of the parking lot only to loose the load out of the back of his truck. Plywood was all over the road and he was trying to pick it up as people were driving over it. Wouldn't you think people would stop and help? No....not in Florida. It's every man for himself when a storm is approaching.

People can be so rude and unthinking when one of these storms is coming their way. I've seen people pushing other people out of the way in the grocery stores to get water. I can't beleive people were running over this persons plywood! I hope none of it got ruined...that stuff isn't cheap...

jeffl

08-31-2004, 05:24 PM

131kts in NE quad.

"spectacular stadium effect eye"

Based on IR imagery Frances looks to still be moving due west and is extremely well oragnized with a nice CDO band all the way around the circualtion.

Canelaw99

08-31-2004, 05:33 PM

jeffl

08-31-2004, 05:45 PM

Ok, Jeff - not to pin you down, and certainly not basing my preps on this because I've already started preparing.....

If Frances continues going west, as she has been all day, much to the dismay of the NHC, how long before it dramatically affects the potential path into S. FL??? A local met. said as little as 50 miles more can make the difference. :s:

I would say if it makes it into the SE Bahamas and is still heading west, NHC will have to shift it track southward. If this happens I would greatly increase the threat to S FL. Since you have already starting preparing I think you are Okay right now. Thursday looks to be the real prep. day for the EC of FL. Hopefully we will have it nailed down by that time.

Frances is a large hurricane creating her own envirnoment and moving quickly west, she is not going to make a sharp turn to the north, but a more gradual turn if in fact the turn develops. So, the farther she comes west now the bigger the threat along the FL coast.

windy

08-31-2004, 05:46 PM

Some people want to buy up everything in the grocery store because they go into a silly panic. I've seen shelves go empty, it looks like a store that's opening in a week while they get the store ready. The first to go is bread, milk & water. What do people think a hurricane is the end of the world. I sure wouldn't buy a whole lot of groceries seeing it spoils once the electricity goes out. Let me tell you about plywood some hardware stores go up on the price just when a hurricane is coming ashore and I think that's totaly wrong. Nickle & dimeing people to death. And yes its sad when people can't help out others. But anyway it seems the forecast track changed again just like I said. Looks like Fl up to the Carolinas. I figured that anyway. I surely wouldn't believe a GOM storm that's for sure. Stay safe widny.

Bean

08-31-2004, 05:48 PM

Bean

08-31-2004, 06:06 PM

Just heard on the weather channel, that a NNW turn is happening. Is this true?

Canelaw99

08-31-2004, 06:12 PM

Thought it was WNW, not NNW...

Bean

08-31-2004, 06:15 PM

You're right, sorry. I guess I'm panicing. I can't reach my brother (Savannah). Probably out getting supplies, he's a former Floridian and very familiar with these girls. I'm concerned about the prior Daytona hit forcast.

jeffl

08-31-2004, 06:31 PM

Jeff
I have family in Daytona, Jacksonville, Savannah, Panama City and Tampa. WHEW! Of course, no one knows where to go now. My question is, if Frances tracks up the east coast, what are the dangers, if any for them in Tampa and Panama City?

If Frances goes up the EC of FL and not across FL into the extreme E GOM I suspect little impact in Panama City. Tampa will likley be in the western edge of Gale force winds depending on where the thing makes landfall. Any landfall from Titusville southward would probably result in some impact to Tampa.

With that being said, a direct hit and then cross into the E GOM could result in a significant threat to both locations.

Given the current forecast track, 30-40mph wind gust and squalls will be possible in Tampa with little to no impact at Panama City.

This information is given the current NHC track forecast and is subject to change based on revisions in the track. The west coast and Gulf coast of Fl are not out of the woods yet, so they need to be preparing also.