Discussion on TS Alex - Atlantic System

[ticka1]

Getting that tropical look to it - like its wanting to wrap. Take a look for yourself.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR2/20.jpg

[windy]

Hi ticka I think the one in the atlantic is going to develop. It seems we will know at 5:00pm. :)

[StingRay]

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT 275
MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THE SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS BUT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORBALE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.

Bummer, no cigar yet. :confused:

[Harry]

Lets not forget system in east atlantic. That seem's to have the best potential right now. imo

[StingRay]

I though this WAS the one in the East Atlantic. :confused:

[windy]

We on the east coast will know probably around 11:30 or sooner what will become of this disturbance. Depression/Tropical? :) now for the drum roll............................. :D

[ticka1]

Drum roll please....I think Alex or TD#1 will be named in the Atlantic later this evening.

Looks like this one is going to head to the East coast - near the carolina states...

[Coriolis]

Finally - TD#1 at 5pm

Jim

[ticka1]

Tropical Depression ONE

Home (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?) Public Advisory Forecast/Advisory (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/312031.shtml?) Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/312031.shtml?) Probabilities (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT1+shtml/312033.shtml?) Archive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/refresh/ONE+shtml/%20.shtml?) 000WTNT31 KNHC 312033TCPAT1BULLETINTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL5 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2004 SEASON FORMS OFF THESOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...TROPICAL STORM WATCHISSUED... AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROMEDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THATTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THENEXT 36 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CENTER OFTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OFCHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. AGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR THE COASTOF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME SLOWSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEDEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.6 N... 78.6 W. MOVEMENTTOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDWINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONALHURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXTCOMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN

[CalUWxBill]

Awesome Baby. Its about time.

[wxmanscott]

Finally a tropical depression!!!!!!

[ticka1]

10:00 p.m. update - still a tropical depression and still very disorganized. July 2004 will go into the recordbooks as having no named storms. Wonder how busy August will be?

[StingRay]

Man, if I had some time to do some research on this, I would love to. I'm sure someone already has on the relationship between no activity the first two months of the season and what the incidences were of higher than normal activity when this occurred.

One time that springs to mind, Alicia-August 17, 1983. First named storm of the season, cat 3. Ticka, I'm SURE you remember.

[ticka1]

Looks like TD#1 might become Alex. Looking a little better on sats today. Will have to wait and see. Yes Stingray - I remember the first storm of the season in 1983 - Alicia formed in the GOM and as a cat 3 - wretched havoc on the Houston/Galveston area. Time will tell with it being Aug 1st now.

Patricia


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004

...DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
CAPE FEAR TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOMORROW. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.9 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Coriolis]

Our first storm of the season as of 5pm

Jim

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004

...ALEX STATIONARY...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD AND NOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO
CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

ALEX HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER...A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL BE SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS FAVOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...MAINLY
IN SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALEX.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.7 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[ticka1]

Wtnt31 Knhc 012344
Tcpat1
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 5a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
8 Pm Edt Sun Aug 01 2004

...alex Stationary...watches And Warnings Extended...

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From South Santee River
South Carolina To Cape Hatteras North Carolina...including The
Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm
Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24
Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For North Of Cape Hatteras
To Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch Also
Remains In Effect From Edisto Beach To South Santee River South
Carolina.

At 8 Pm Edt...0000z...air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Reports
Indicate The Center Of Tropical Storm Alex Was Located Near
Latitude 31.5 North... Longitude 79.2 West Or About 90 Miles
South-southeast Of Charleston South Carolina.

Alex Remains Stationary. However...a Slow Drift Toward The North Or
North-northeast Is Expected Later Tonight Or On Monday. On The
Forecast Track...the Center Of Alex Will Be Slowly Approaching The
South And North Carolina Coasts Over The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph...with Higher Gusts.
Conditions Favor Some Slow Strengthening Over The Next 24 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 60 Miles...mainly
In Squalls To The South And East Of The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1009 Mb...29.80 Inches.

Rainfall Accumulations Of 1 To 2 Inches...with Isolated Higher
Amounts...can Be Expected In Association With Alex.

Repeating The 8 Pm Edt Position...31.5 N... 79.2 W. Movement
...stationary. Maximum Sustained
Winds... 40 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1009 Mb.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center
At 11 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Stewart

[ticka1]

000
Wtnt31 Knhc 020226
Tcpat1
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 6
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Pm Edt Sun Aug 01 2004

...alex Remains Stationary Off The South Carolina Coast...

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From South Santee River
South Carolina To Cape Hatteras North Carolina...including The
Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm
Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24
Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For North Of Cape Hatteras
To Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch Also
Remains In Effect From Edisto Beach To South Santee River South
Carolina.

At 11 Pm Edt...0300z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Alex Was
Located Near Latitude 31.5 North...longitude 79.2 West Or About
90 Miles South-southeast Of Charleston South Carolina.

Alex Remains Nearly Stationary. However...a Slow Drift Toward The
North Or North-northeast Is Expected By Monday Afternoon. On The
Forecast Track...the Center Of Alex Will Be Slowly Approaching The
South And North Carolina Coasts During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Some
Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 60 Miles Southeast
Through Southwest Of The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1007 Mb...29.74 Inches.

Rainfall Accumulations Of 1 To 2 Inches...with Isolated Higher
Amounts...can Be Expected In Association With Alex.

High Surf And Rip Currents Will Affect Much Of The Southeastern And
Mid-atlantic U.s. Coastal Areas For The Next Couple Of Days.

Repeating The 11 Pm Edt Position...31.5 N... 79.2 W. Movement
...stationary. Maximum Sustained
Winds... 40 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1007 Mb.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 2 Am Edt Followed By The Next
Complete Advisory At 5 Am Edt.

Forecaster Stewart

[windy]

Bulletin
Tropical Storm Alex Special Advisory Number 8
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
8 Am Edt Mon Aug 02 2004

....alex Strengthens...

Radar Imagery And Reports From An Air Force Reserve Unit
Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate That Alex Has Begun To Strengthen.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From South Santee River
South Carolina To Cape Hatteras North Carolina...including The
Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm
Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24
Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For North Of Cape Hatteras
To Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch Also
Remains In Effect From Edisto Beach To South Santee River South
Carolina.

At 8 Am Edt...1200z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Alex Was Located
Near Latitude 31.3 North...longitude 79.0 West Or About 120
Miles...south-southeast Of Charleston South Carolina.

Alex Has Been Drifting Eastward Over The Past Few Hours.
However...a Slow Motion Toward The North Or Northeast Is Expected
Over The Next 24 Hours. On The Forecast Track...the Center Of Alex
Will Be Slowly Approaching The Coasts Of South And North Carolina
Later Today.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 60 Mph...with Higher
Gusts. Some Additional Strengthening Is Expected During The Next 24
Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 105 Miles
....165 Km From The Center.

An Air Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft Recently Reported
A Minimum Central Pressure Of 992 Mb...29.29 Inches.

Storm Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 1-2 Inches...with Isolated
Higher Amounts...can Be Expected In Association With Alex.

High Surf And Rip Currents Will Affect Much Of The Southeastern And
Mid-atlantic U.s. Coastal Areas For The Next Couple Of Days.

Repeating The 8 Am Edt Position...31.3 N... 79.0 W. Movement
....drifting East. Maximum Sustained
Winds... 60 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 992 Mb.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 11 Am Edt.

[Coriolis]

000
Wtnt41 Knhc 021505
Tcdat1
Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 9
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Am Edt Mon Aug 02 2004

The Structure Of Alex Is Evolving As The Upper-level Shear Pattern
Changes. The Strongest Convection Near The Core Is Now East Of The
Center...with A Well-developed Band In The Southeast Quadrant. The
Last Two Reconnaissance Fixes Showed The Central Pressure Is No
Longer Dropping...so The Intensification Trend From This Morning
Has Slowed...at Least For Now. Alex Is Forecast To Be Moving Over
The Warm Waters Of The Gulf Stream...with A Relativly Deep
Reservoir Of 26c Or Warmer Water. The Shear Is Not Expected To Be
Prohibitive For The Next Day Or So...so Alex Could Reach Hurricane
Status. After 36-48 Hours...cooler Ssts And Increasing
Southwesterly Shear Should Induce A Weakening Trend. Global Models
Suggest That Alex Will Become Extratropical In About 72 Hours.

Alex Is Finally Beginning To Move In A More Consistent Manner...and
The Initial Motion Is Estimated To Be 060/4. Only A Weak Ridge
Remains To The Northeast Of The Cyclone And Alex Is About To Become
Embedded In A Southwesterly Steering Current. Model Guidance Is In
Good Agreement On A Northeasterly Track With A Gradual Increase In
Forward Speed Over The Next Two To Three Days.

There Is Still Very Little Wind In The Northwest Quadrant Of
Alex...and So With The More Eastward Track Of The Cyclone This
Morning The Tropical Storm Watch South Of South Santee River Is
Being Discontinued.

Forecaster Franklin

[stormy]

so when is alex suppost to hit. its so close to shore. also it moving n, ne, will it just skirt the coast???? (so many questions so little time )

[Coriolis]

Stormy -

Alex will be off the outer banks of Cape Hatteras around 2pm tomorrow - although it will be receiving conditions before that. Plus if the track deviates to the left of the model guidance then the core of the storm may go over land.

Jim