Confused about models

[archergirl66]

I know you have to watch for a trend, and not just panic based on one model run, but it's all the different model maps that are confusing the heck out of me...

For instance, what is this MM5 one, that takes Emily right into the TX/LA border? What is this I'm reading about one of those other models (the GFS?) not taking into account something that I can't even remember now...

What should we actually be watching, model-wise?

[Coriolis]

Actually - unless you are a trained meteorologist and more specifically one who is a specialist in hurricanes - always use the NHC and your local authorities. This is one of the reasons the NHC does not put out all the models online. People try to be their own forecasters and that is way too dangerous. Models are just tools to HELP , but it is the expertise of the hurricane specialists who take everything in what is placed in front of him/her and then they put out the forecast on all those merits.

As Patricia stated - use the cone of error - not the black line. As you saw in Charly - just one deviation can make such a difference.

Jim

[archergirl66]

Thanks, Jim. :)

[jfranklin]

Actually - unless you are a trained meteorologist and more specifically one who is a specialist in hurricanes - always use the NHC and your local authorities. This is one of the reasons the NHC does not put out all the models online. People try to be their own forecasters and that is way too dangerous. Models are just tools to HELP , but it is the expertise of the hurricane specialists who take everything in what is placed in front of him/her and then they put out the forecast on all those merits.

As Patricia stated - use the cone of error - not the black line. As you saw in Charly - just one deviation can make such a difference.

Jim

Just to clarify one point that Jim made, NHC does not have any of our own models, so we would have nothing to post online. It is up to the "creators" of the various models to post their data on line, and they do, to varying degrees. NWS/NCEP, which runs the GFS, posts the GFS online, and there are a number of sites that post other models.

I agree with what Jim said - unless you understand what goes into a model, don't read too much into it. The NHC official forecast is our best assessment of what is going to happen, after looking at all of the model guidance, and the cone is a good indicator of the possible error associated with that forecast.

James

[Coriolis]

James - Thanks for the clarification!