Discussion on 90L - Gulf of Mexico System

[ticka1]

Here is the latest sat view - looking better. Tomorrow might be a busy day in the tropics.

[StingRay]

Let's try and keep all the posting on this system confined to one thread, as opposed to starting a different thread for each blob, so to speak. Tickster, from what I hear, it's not this sytem, but the one in the Atlantic that has more chances of possibly affecting us.

[ticka1]

Now Stingray - how in the heck is the one in the Atlantic going to affect us? I thought that one was headed up into the Carolina's and the GOM (this one is headed to the GOM coastline)????


I agree with Stingray - let's keep all the discussions on each system in their respective thread.

[ticka1]

Here's the 5:30 TWO -

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND IT APPEARS TO
SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT ...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. IF NECESSARY...A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LATER TODAY.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

[StingRay]

Ticka, that mess in the Gulf is nice to look at but if that thing continues to move nw as progged, we'll avoid it entirely. Still gonna focus my attention on the other blob. At this point, we could REALLY use some rain from somewhere. :mad:

[Coriolis]

Hey Ray.Ticka, all
Looks like that the blob in the Gulf (90L) will take a little longer to possibly form into a depression. On the other hand though, (99L) - it looks like the Mid - Upper level ridge is rapidly building and looks like it is pinching off the dry air from the north and probably be our first depression - possibly today??
Any thoughts??

Jim

[stormy]

so Jim where do u think the 99L will hit?

[Coriolis]

Hard to say Stormy - looks like there is a surface low to the north and west of the "orginal" one. It is having a hard time right now and whether the surface low is making it (the original) a little more difficult to organize - I could not say. I guess we will have to see how the day goes. There is supposed to be a flight today to check it out. I think it goes out at 1pm. Hopefully we will know more then. BTW - I am not a trained meteorologist - just a hobby for me.

Jim

[ticka1]

But you know a trained met Coriolis :D

My opinion is each system is holding its own but no rapid development today. Part of the reason I see is that they are still too close together. Once each system starts moving - I think they will begin to develop. I don't think recon is going to find a TD in 99L today. JMO.

[Coriolis]

But you know a trained met Coriolis :D
.

That is true Ticka but he had the night shift - so he is probaby sleeping. I am not sure if he works tonight - they have weird shifts.

Jim

[ticka1]

That is true Ticka but he had the night shift - so he is probaby sleeping. I am not sure if he works tonight - they have weird shifts.

Jim
Yeah that's true. I have a couple of mets I keep in touch with who work for the NWS and they work shift work.

The plane is flying in the Bahama's system right now.

[windy]

I saw in the left lower corner which said trouble in the tropics at 5:00pm So this tells me we may be seeing something develop and where it may hit. I'm sure its the atlantic disturbance. The GOM disturbance may take a couple of days to get its act together. :rolleyes:

[StingRay]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD AND STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TOMORROW.

:eek: :eek: :eek:

Don't you just love watching these BLOBS??????

[ticka1]

Will today be the day that this system getting going? Or will it meander around and just not do anything?

[ticka1]

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=SatelliteImagery&product=AtlanticHIRES&prodnav=none


For someone who is more knowledgable then me - is the GOM to the south of Cuba or is it in the GOM with no convection.

Thanks,

[Coriolis]

Ticka - the south of Cuba is the Caribbean Sea - the north of Cuba has both the Atlantic and the Florida Straits. The western tip of Cuba can be considered part of the GOM (if you so choose). :)

Jim

[stormy]

somebody correct me if i am wrong but what about the gulf i see a couple of blobs, but i dont know if they mean anything. do you all think this is still going to happen in the gulf. the one just off africa seen to be pretty good. thanks in advance