jeffl
07-09-2005, 07:47 AM
At 400am a Hurricane Warning is issued for the US Gulf coast from the mouth of Pearl River, MS to Steinhatchee River, FL.
Various inland watches and warnings are in effect for most of FL.
Dangerous hurricane heading for the US Gulf coast.
Tropical storm force winds affecting much of west FL. Gust to 50mph at Tampa.
Data from the Key West radar and a NOAA aircraft indicate that Dennis is starting to re-intensify after weakening to a category 1 over Cuba. Winds have increased to 105mph and further intensification is expected. IR and visible images indicate deep convection has redeveloped over and near the center and the hurricane is becoming better organized.
Track:
The track remains straightforward with Dennis rounding the west side of the Bermuda ridge over the W ATL. This should bring the hurricane NW across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and into the AL and FL panhandle coasts late Sunday. The forecast track confidence is fairly high and only very minor deviations from this track is expected. A hurricane is not a point, and devastating effects will be felt far from the center.
Intensity:
The intensity forecast is a bit problematic this morning as Dennis was disrupted over Cuba. The inner core was likely disturbed, however based on Key West radar it appears to be re-consolidating. SHIPS no longer shows intensification over the Gulf, however the GFDL does show intensification. NHC maintains a strong category 3 through US landfall. It should be clearly noted that we are not good at intensity forecasting and if the inner core is able to rebuild itself, Dennis could be stronger than currently forecast at landfall.
Impacts:
Given the current NHC forecast track a landfall just west of Pensacola is expected Sunday evening. The right front quad (NE quad) will impact the FL panhandle area from Pensacola eastward to Destin and Panama City.
Storm Surge:
A destructive storm surge will be generated. Storm surge values of 10-15 feet can be expected from the AL/FL border eastward along the FL panhandle coast to Panama City. Surge values will be higher (15-18 ft) in the heads of inlets and bays (Pensacola Bay). Wave action of 10-20 feet will accompany the surge resulting in substantial erosion along the barrier islands. Many of the barrier islands will be completely overwashed with significant damage to Gulf facing hotels and structures. Surge damage will be similar to that of hurricane Ivan.
Wind:
Tropical storm force winds will begin by early Sunday morning across the Hurricane warning area building to hurricane conditions by midday Sunday. Sustained winds of 100mph+ will begin to impact the warning area by late Sunday afternoon. Strong onshore winds can be expected east of where the center crosses the coast with offshore winds west of the center. Dennis is forecast to be moving at 10-15mph at landfall which will bring destructive winds at least 50-70 miles inland. Widespread power outages can be expected for many weeks.
Rainfall:
Rainfall amounts will average 4-8 inches with isolated 6-12 inch amounts. Grounds are already saturated from a very wet spring and TS Arlene and Cindy. Flooding is likely over much of the SE US in the mid MS valley over the next 5 days.
Preparedness Actions:
Mandatory evacuations are in progress for Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay counties in FL. In AL all of Mobile County and Baldwin County south of I-10 is under a mandatory evacuation. I-65 from Mobile to Montgomery AL has been reversed (all lanes are outbound) until 600pm today.
Numerous airports will be closing this afternoon along the Gulf coast including Pensacola and Mobile. Key West is already closed and will remain closed for most of today.
If in storm surge evacuation zones you must evacuate. Do not stay on the barrier islands for any circumstances they will receive considerable damage from wave, surge, and wind.
All preparations for a strong category 3 hurricane must be completed by sun down tonight. Adverse conditions will begin by early Sunday morning.
Various inland watches and warnings are in effect for most of FL.
Dangerous hurricane heading for the US Gulf coast.
Tropical storm force winds affecting much of west FL. Gust to 50mph at Tampa.
Data from the Key West radar and a NOAA aircraft indicate that Dennis is starting to re-intensify after weakening to a category 1 over Cuba. Winds have increased to 105mph and further intensification is expected. IR and visible images indicate deep convection has redeveloped over and near the center and the hurricane is becoming better organized.
Track:
The track remains straightforward with Dennis rounding the west side of the Bermuda ridge over the W ATL. This should bring the hurricane NW across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and into the AL and FL panhandle coasts late Sunday. The forecast track confidence is fairly high and only very minor deviations from this track is expected. A hurricane is not a point, and devastating effects will be felt far from the center.
Intensity:
The intensity forecast is a bit problematic this morning as Dennis was disrupted over Cuba. The inner core was likely disturbed, however based on Key West radar it appears to be re-consolidating. SHIPS no longer shows intensification over the Gulf, however the GFDL does show intensification. NHC maintains a strong category 3 through US landfall. It should be clearly noted that we are not good at intensity forecasting and if the inner core is able to rebuild itself, Dennis could be stronger than currently forecast at landfall.
Impacts:
Given the current NHC forecast track a landfall just west of Pensacola is expected Sunday evening. The right front quad (NE quad) will impact the FL panhandle area from Pensacola eastward to Destin and Panama City.
Storm Surge:
A destructive storm surge will be generated. Storm surge values of 10-15 feet can be expected from the AL/FL border eastward along the FL panhandle coast to Panama City. Surge values will be higher (15-18 ft) in the heads of inlets and bays (Pensacola Bay). Wave action of 10-20 feet will accompany the surge resulting in substantial erosion along the barrier islands. Many of the barrier islands will be completely overwashed with significant damage to Gulf facing hotels and structures. Surge damage will be similar to that of hurricane Ivan.
Wind:
Tropical storm force winds will begin by early Sunday morning across the Hurricane warning area building to hurricane conditions by midday Sunday. Sustained winds of 100mph+ will begin to impact the warning area by late Sunday afternoon. Strong onshore winds can be expected east of where the center crosses the coast with offshore winds west of the center. Dennis is forecast to be moving at 10-15mph at landfall which will bring destructive winds at least 50-70 miles inland. Widespread power outages can be expected for many weeks.
Rainfall:
Rainfall amounts will average 4-8 inches with isolated 6-12 inch amounts. Grounds are already saturated from a very wet spring and TS Arlene and Cindy. Flooding is likely over much of the SE US in the mid MS valley over the next 5 days.
Preparedness Actions:
Mandatory evacuations are in progress for Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay counties in FL. In AL all of Mobile County and Baldwin County south of I-10 is under a mandatory evacuation. I-65 from Mobile to Montgomery AL has been reversed (all lanes are outbound) until 600pm today.
Numerous airports will be closing this afternoon along the Gulf coast including Pensacola and Mobile. Key West is already closed and will remain closed for most of today.
If in storm surge evacuation zones you must evacuate. Do not stay on the barrier islands for any circumstances they will receive considerable damage from wave, surge, and wind.
All preparations for a strong category 3 hurricane must be completed by sun down tonight. Adverse conditions will begin by early Sunday morning.