swmochic
07-06-2005, 01:21 PM
Hurricane Hotspots
The Worst Places for Hurricanes
Hurricane experts believe we have been fortunate over the last 30 years, with only a few major hurricanes hitting Florida and the East Coast of the United States. Now they say our luck is running out. According to the hurricane forecasters, we should be prepared for increased major hurricane activity over the next two or three decades.
So, should you cancel that Florida vacation, or re-think your retirement plans? By analyzing the tracks of tropical storms for the past 100 years, the experts at Sperling's BestPlaces have ranked which areas are most likely to be hit by a major hurricane.
1. Southeast Florida (Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach)
2. Key West and the Florida keys
3. Southwest Florida (Fort Myers-Naples)
4. West Florida (Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota-Clearwater)
5. Outer Banks islands, NC (Cape Hatteras)
6. Central Texas Gulf coast (Galveston)
7. Central Florida Atlantic coast (Melbourne-Cocoa Beach)
8. Florida Panhandle (Pensacola-Panama City)
9. Central Gulf coast (New Orleans, LA-Biloxi, MS-Mobile, AL)
10. South Texas Gulf coast (Corpus Christi-Brownsville)
Does this mean newcomers are likely to avoid these hurricane-prone areas? Research expert Bert Sperling doesn't think so. "These ocean-front areas will still have tremendous appeal. Recent hurricane activity will cause some people to have second thoughts, but I expect home prices and sales activity to rebound in less than a year. Nevertheless, homeowners will need to prepare for the eventuality of a major storm."
This list focuses on coastal areas, where the effects of a hurricane can be most catastrophic. In addition to the devastation caused by high winds of 200 mph or more, the ocean itself may be driven inland by the winds, creating a "storm surge," a wall of water up to 20 feet high.
1. Southeast Florida
This area includes the major cities of Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. Forecasters estimate that once every ten years, it will be visited by a hurricane of a Category 3 or greater (winds over 111 miles per hour). The most recent such hurricane was Andrew in 1992, a Category 5 monster.
2. The Florida Keys
The town of Key West is at the end of this island chain off the southern tip of Florida. It is exposed on all sides to passing hurricanes. It was last hit by a Category 1 hurricane in 1999 and a Category 2 storm in 1998.
3. Southwest Florida
Florida's southern Gulf coast is home to the metro areas of Fort Myers and Naples. In 2004, a Category 4 hurricane named Charley slammed ashore a few miles north of Fort Myers.
4. West Florida
Tampa was most recently hit in 2004 by hurricane Frances after it crossed over the state of Florida. Though diminished in intensity after its journey over land, Frances still packed high winds and heavy rainfall. The Tampa area includes the cities of St. Petersburg, Sarasota and Clearwater.
5. Outer Banks islands, NC
This sparsely inhabited area sticks out into the Gulf Stream, creating an area of frequent landfall for hurricanes sweeping up the Atlantic coast.
6. Central Texas - Gulf coast
The island city of Galveston has been the site of some of the most catastrophic hurricanes in the last century. It was last hit by a hurricane in 1989, but tropical storm Allison delivered extremely heavy rainfall to the area in 2001, including Houston inland.
7. Central Florida - Atlantic coast
The hurricane threat diminishes north of the Miami area, in the cities of Melbourne, Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. Hurricane Frances made landfall here in 2004 as a Category 2 storm.
8. Florida Panhandle
The metro areas of Pensacola and Panama City were hit hard in 1995 by hurricane Opal, which packed winds of 125 mph.
9. Central Gulf coast
The large cities of New Orleans (LA), Biloxi (MS) and Mobile (AL) are all vulnerable to another major hurricane. In 1969, Camille devastated the area as one of only three Category 5 hurricanes to strike the U.S. mainland. A direct hit to New Orleans by a major hurricane could render the city uninhabitable for months. Most recently, Ivan narrowly missed Mobile in 2004 as a Category 3 storm.
10. South Texas - Gulf coast
This region was last hit in 1999 by Bret, a rare Category 4 hurricane. Fortunately, Bret struck in a sparsely populated area between Corpus Christi and Brownsville. This region has avoided a catastrophic hurricane in recent years.
Hurricanes can hit anywhere along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic seaboard. Other hotspots include (in order of decreasing probability) Jacksonville, FL, Savannah, GA, Charleston, SC, Wilmington, NC, Norfolk, VA and even Providence, RI.
Between 1965 and 2004 (nearly 40 years), the Florida peninsula had only one major hurricane that made landfall (hurricane Andrew in 1992). The normal long-term probability of an intense hurricane hitting somewhere in Florida or on the East Coast is about once every three years. The odds are slightly better for the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle through the Texas coast.
If hurricane frequency increases to normally active levels, residents of Southern coastal areas will need to prepare the new onslaught. Sperling suggests, "Minimize your risk by doing your homework before you move. Use care to research the location of your new home, and how it is constructed. A little work now may save your home and possessions, and your lives."
Here are some tips to follow when considering a home in a hurricane area:
Contact your insurance agent to determine the kind of insurance you can obtain, and the cost.
Check flood hazard maps to see if the site is in danger of flooding. You can view these online at www.fema.gov/maps.shtm.
Make sure the house has been built to newer, more stringent building codes such as those in Miami-Dade county and South Florida. These new standards, which are designed to withstand 145 mph winds, were implemented in 1994 and continue to be refined.
Have a "safe room" in the house, which is a specially constructed space in the home's interior to provide a sanctuary during hurricanes or tornadoes.
Learn the location of recommended evacuation routes.
Methodology
This report was based on analysis of the tracks of tropical storms from the National Hurricane Center, which is part of the Tropical Prediction Center at the National Weather Center. It also took into consideration hurricane predictions jointly developed by scientists from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the Hurricane Research Center and the National Hurricane Center. The "United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project," developed by Dr. William Gray's Tropical Meteorology Research Project at Colorado State University, was also very informative.
Visit www.bestplaces.net to find more information about this list, including the likelihood of hurricanes impacting New England, the West Coast, and Hawaii.
The Worst Places for Hurricanes
Hurricane experts believe we have been fortunate over the last 30 years, with only a few major hurricanes hitting Florida and the East Coast of the United States. Now they say our luck is running out. According to the hurricane forecasters, we should be prepared for increased major hurricane activity over the next two or three decades.
So, should you cancel that Florida vacation, or re-think your retirement plans? By analyzing the tracks of tropical storms for the past 100 years, the experts at Sperling's BestPlaces have ranked which areas are most likely to be hit by a major hurricane.
1. Southeast Florida (Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach)
2. Key West and the Florida keys
3. Southwest Florida (Fort Myers-Naples)
4. West Florida (Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota-Clearwater)
5. Outer Banks islands, NC (Cape Hatteras)
6. Central Texas Gulf coast (Galveston)
7. Central Florida Atlantic coast (Melbourne-Cocoa Beach)
8. Florida Panhandle (Pensacola-Panama City)
9. Central Gulf coast (New Orleans, LA-Biloxi, MS-Mobile, AL)
10. South Texas Gulf coast (Corpus Christi-Brownsville)
Does this mean newcomers are likely to avoid these hurricane-prone areas? Research expert Bert Sperling doesn't think so. "These ocean-front areas will still have tremendous appeal. Recent hurricane activity will cause some people to have second thoughts, but I expect home prices and sales activity to rebound in less than a year. Nevertheless, homeowners will need to prepare for the eventuality of a major storm."
This list focuses on coastal areas, where the effects of a hurricane can be most catastrophic. In addition to the devastation caused by high winds of 200 mph or more, the ocean itself may be driven inland by the winds, creating a "storm surge," a wall of water up to 20 feet high.
1. Southeast Florida
This area includes the major cities of Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. Forecasters estimate that once every ten years, it will be visited by a hurricane of a Category 3 or greater (winds over 111 miles per hour). The most recent such hurricane was Andrew in 1992, a Category 5 monster.
2. The Florida Keys
The town of Key West is at the end of this island chain off the southern tip of Florida. It is exposed on all sides to passing hurricanes. It was last hit by a Category 1 hurricane in 1999 and a Category 2 storm in 1998.
3. Southwest Florida
Florida's southern Gulf coast is home to the metro areas of Fort Myers and Naples. In 2004, a Category 4 hurricane named Charley slammed ashore a few miles north of Fort Myers.
4. West Florida
Tampa was most recently hit in 2004 by hurricane Frances after it crossed over the state of Florida. Though diminished in intensity after its journey over land, Frances still packed high winds and heavy rainfall. The Tampa area includes the cities of St. Petersburg, Sarasota and Clearwater.
5. Outer Banks islands, NC
This sparsely inhabited area sticks out into the Gulf Stream, creating an area of frequent landfall for hurricanes sweeping up the Atlantic coast.
6. Central Texas - Gulf coast
The island city of Galveston has been the site of some of the most catastrophic hurricanes in the last century. It was last hit by a hurricane in 1989, but tropical storm Allison delivered extremely heavy rainfall to the area in 2001, including Houston inland.
7. Central Florida - Atlantic coast
The hurricane threat diminishes north of the Miami area, in the cities of Melbourne, Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. Hurricane Frances made landfall here in 2004 as a Category 2 storm.
8. Florida Panhandle
The metro areas of Pensacola and Panama City were hit hard in 1995 by hurricane Opal, which packed winds of 125 mph.
9. Central Gulf coast
The large cities of New Orleans (LA), Biloxi (MS) and Mobile (AL) are all vulnerable to another major hurricane. In 1969, Camille devastated the area as one of only three Category 5 hurricanes to strike the U.S. mainland. A direct hit to New Orleans by a major hurricane could render the city uninhabitable for months. Most recently, Ivan narrowly missed Mobile in 2004 as a Category 3 storm.
10. South Texas - Gulf coast
This region was last hit in 1999 by Bret, a rare Category 4 hurricane. Fortunately, Bret struck in a sparsely populated area between Corpus Christi and Brownsville. This region has avoided a catastrophic hurricane in recent years.
Hurricanes can hit anywhere along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic seaboard. Other hotspots include (in order of decreasing probability) Jacksonville, FL, Savannah, GA, Charleston, SC, Wilmington, NC, Norfolk, VA and even Providence, RI.
Between 1965 and 2004 (nearly 40 years), the Florida peninsula had only one major hurricane that made landfall (hurricane Andrew in 1992). The normal long-term probability of an intense hurricane hitting somewhere in Florida or on the East Coast is about once every three years. The odds are slightly better for the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle through the Texas coast.
If hurricane frequency increases to normally active levels, residents of Southern coastal areas will need to prepare the new onslaught. Sperling suggests, "Minimize your risk by doing your homework before you move. Use care to research the location of your new home, and how it is constructed. A little work now may save your home and possessions, and your lives."
Here are some tips to follow when considering a home in a hurricane area:
Contact your insurance agent to determine the kind of insurance you can obtain, and the cost.
Check flood hazard maps to see if the site is in danger of flooding. You can view these online at www.fema.gov/maps.shtm.
Make sure the house has been built to newer, more stringent building codes such as those in Miami-Dade county and South Florida. These new standards, which are designed to withstand 145 mph winds, were implemented in 1994 and continue to be refined.
Have a "safe room" in the house, which is a specially constructed space in the home's interior to provide a sanctuary during hurricanes or tornadoes.
Learn the location of recommended evacuation routes.
Methodology
This report was based on analysis of the tracks of tropical storms from the National Hurricane Center, which is part of the Tropical Prediction Center at the National Weather Center. It also took into consideration hurricane predictions jointly developed by scientists from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the Hurricane Research Center and the National Hurricane Center. The "United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project," developed by Dr. William Gray's Tropical Meteorology Research Project at Colorado State University, was also very informative.
Visit www.bestplaces.net to find more information about this list, including the likelihood of hurricanes impacting New England, the West Coast, and Hawaii.